Celsion thoughts

I was asked the following question about Celsion raising more money prior to getting results from their HEAT trial....

>>Do you have an opinion on whether they would hang ten on cash until after the HEAT readout?

I was blindsided by the raise immediately after the interim results. That one-two punch really killed us, and only the specter of the 2nd intermi look was what was keeping us above $1.75.

It kind of blows my mind that we're this low - even if we're 7-9 months out. But it is what it is.

I feel fairly confident that as the summer draws nigh, we'll pick up some analyst coverage - and while they may be positive or negative, we're almost sure to add some, "IF they get good results, then my target is $XX" statements. Keep in mind the three targets we have, ($6, 7, and 10 IIRC) all were assuming a continue at interim. So we are so far below those targets it's not even funny (or at least my accounts are not laughing). We do have target reiterations to look forward to, as well as China completing enrollment, DIGNITY/ph2 starting, more ABLATE news, the mysterious product #4, Yakult news in Japan, the ever-present chance of a partnership or buyout, and the clock is always winding down towards Q4 and the 380th event. Today may not be the lowest price we'll see, but odds are in our favor to start a climb upwards - you just need to be patient.

All that does not answer the question, "Do you have an opinion on whether they would hang ten on cash until after the HEAT readout?"

They have been both aggressive and safe at times. Last summer, they starved themselves of cash to see if they could make it through the interim, and then they also raised at the worst possible post-interim time. It would not surprise me to see a raise at any time, but my opinion is they will not do so in the next two months. Once we have a handle on DIGNITY andf ABLATE costs in the next quarters' numbers, I might change my mind! And of course, when the price does get some traction, that begs the company to raise a little.

It probably comes down to how close they really are in partnership talks. Right now, they are fine for cash. Projecting out for 5 quarters, after thinking about the trials going on, we'll definitely need some more. Does it change things that we should *know* HEAT results exactly one year from now? Uh, yeah. So final thought is again the partnership side of things. If they can sign one more regional agreement for Thermodox - only (China, or Europe) and grab a $4M up-front payment, then I think a further raise can wait until we're at the final (and the price should be above $3).

Best regards,
Trond

Disclaimer:
This is presented for educational and informational purposes only, and should
not be construed as personalized legal, tax, investment, or financial advice.
I am long shares of Celsion in my personal accounts, but my holdings are based on my own risk tolerances and situation.