CLSN released a PR today:
http://www.celsion.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=627024
Of which the important parts are shown below:
"Celsion Corporation (NASDAQ: CLSN), a leading oncology drug development company, announced today that the independent Data Monitoring Committee (DMC) for Celsion's Phase III HEAT Study, a multinational, double-blind, placebo-controlled, pivotal study of ThermoDox® in combination with radio frequency ablation (RFA) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or primary liver cancer, has completed a planned interim analysis for safety, efficacy and futility and unanimously recommended that the study continue to its final analysis as planned. The DMC evaluated data from 613 patients in its review, which was conducted following the realization of 219 progression-free survival (PFS) events within the study population. A total of 380 events of progression are required to reach the planned final analysis of the study.
Celsion also announced today that the DMC, in its review, followed a statistical boundary determined by the Company using the Lan DeMets implementation of the O'Brien-Fleming spending function. This approach allows for the Company to conduct additional interim efficacy analyses prior to final data read-out at 380 PFS events with no increased risk of statistical penalty. The additional analyses may allow for earlier stopping of the study. Additionally, based on its internally modeled estimates of PFS events, Celsion reconfirmed that 380 PFS events are projected to occur in late 2012.
"The DMC's unanimous recommendation is a significant achievement for Celsion based on the most comprehensive review of the HEAT Study to date, including the first-ever review of efficacy results," said Michael H. Tardugno, Celsion's President and Chief Executive Officer. "Critically, we have the potential to realize a successful outcome to the study prior to its planned completion. We are encouraged by what may be sufficient rationale for conducting an additional preplanned efficacy review prior to the 380 events called for in our protocol, and will seek to amend our Special Protocol Assessment Agreement with the FDA accordingly. We thank the DMC for their work and thorough review, and are grateful for the continued support and enthusiasm from the healthcare community, regulators, our investors and our employees."
The HEAT Study is being conducted under a U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Special Protocol Assessment, has received FDA Fast Track Designation and has been designated as a Priority Trial for liver cancer by the National Institutes of Health. Target enrollment of 600 patients was reached in August 2011, after which the DMC conducted this interim efficacy analysis based on the realization of 219 progression-free survival events. Consistent with the Company's global regulatory strategy, Celsion is continuing to enroll patients in the HEAT Study in order to randomize at least 200 patients in China, a requirement for sFDA (State Food and Drug Administration) registrational filing in that country and to ensure timely readout of final data. In addition to meeting the U.S. FDA enrollment objective, the HEAT Study has also enrolled a sufficient number of patients to support, in Asia, registrational filings in S. Korea and Taiwan, two very important markets for ThermoDox®."
So - my thoughts are as follows:
Disappointed? Yes - I did think we had a great shot at interim. Funny thing is, we just don't know: was P-value there but OS not enough of a trend? ("totality of the data")
So what do we know?
Safety is not an issue.
Enrollment at 613 (mid/late Sept?) This worries me a little bit. If 600 was ~ 8/5 and enrollment was 613 on 9/19ish, enrollment in China is slow. However, I believe that only those treated and at least one follow up might qualify under the 613. In that case, true enrollment might be closer to 625ish... I will have to follow up with the company here.
219 evaluated as "events". Q was asked at cc about the # past 190 and MT said "not substantial." 29 over = ~15% surplus... in my book that is substantial, but whatever.
The biggie in my estimation is that DMC advised them to seek an amendment to the SPA, instead of "simply" reccing a continue to 380. There is NO reason for this unless they were awfully close to being close enough to stop the trial. There is no other reason - period.
We have enough cash for about 8-11 months, depending on how much burn changes from the mrq. HEAT costs are "over the hump" supposedly but then we're still enrolling to 700, plus ABLATE expenses start. I assume ~1.7-2M a month, yielding my 8-11 months. We've demonstrated that we're willing to scrape the barrel... In my opinion it depends 1) on the FDA chat re the SPA and how soon we decide to take another peek and 2) on how licensing talks with big pharma (BP) go. Now that we're "de-risked" past the interim, BP may be more willing to loosen the purse strings. I repeat: with the DMC rec to amend SPA, the cat is out of the bag.
Was it Rodman & Renshaw that said $6 if a continue? I'm disappointed today, but especially if the overall market rallies, we'll nudge out of the mid $2s soon enough.
-Trond
Monday, November 28, 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Celsion quarterly call
Following are my notes, in very rough form.
I'm very excited still, but very conscious that an investment here assumes that company guidance for 12 month placebo median PFS is correct. More precisely, it appears that anything up to about 17 months placebo PFS would give great odds at interim, which is 40% worse than guidance! So I am comfortable with such risk, but others need to decide for themselves.
26.6M shares OS, $21.4M cash, Q burn was 6.9M (will slow down somewhat - Q3 was high for HEAT milestone payments)
Acknowledged that burn will decrease slightly simce "hump" of HEAT costs are over in Q3.
380 events "possibly as early as q412".
HEAT enrollment extended to 700.
[me - was 640-650 to allow China to be registrational.]
later in QA acknowledged that 700 will get them to 380 events quicker
No OS (overall survival) bar is set at interim - it is "totality of the data".
Cash should last through 2012 [me- although this would reduce us to scraping the barrel again - doubt they'd go past 2q12]
S Korea and Taiwan are registrational in size, China [believe he said Taiwan in the call, but misspoke] is "quickly approaching" 200.
Japan PMDA still reviewing but no action. Yakult in charge of details of new trial and approach.
ABLATE - data should "closely follow" the approval of TDox. [assuming company guidelines]
Gross margins should be 90%+
SPA says if interim hit FDA would need to be consulted. No specific process.
If only a continue, co guidance is that DMC will only relay that fact. NO EXTRA DATA.
Well placed in terms of competition on horizon.
Co. gets "standard set of data" after continue - but pooled, not broken out per arm - it is still blinded!
No saying when DMC meets or when 190 happened [except we know 190 in 3q11 from the 8k filing. my best guess still second week of Aug '11]
Will not disclose p-value needed at interim. Can figure lots of stat data from that - not fair to all shareholders.
Went to 8-10 weeks for processing data... [believe this incorporates taking "extra care" with data into account w/ the increase over prior 6-8 weeks given]
Not substantially more than 190 events, but included a "safety margin".
Licensing talks continue.
I'm very excited still, but very conscious that an investment here assumes that company guidance for 12 month placebo median PFS is correct. More precisely, it appears that anything up to about 17 months placebo PFS would give great odds at interim, which is 40% worse than guidance! So I am comfortable with such risk, but others need to decide for themselves.
26.6M shares OS, $21.4M cash, Q burn was 6.9M (will slow down somewhat - Q3 was high for HEAT milestone payments)
Acknowledged that burn will decrease slightly simce "hump" of HEAT costs are over in Q3.
380 events "possibly as early as q412".
HEAT enrollment extended to 700.
[me - was 640-650 to allow China to be registrational.]
later in QA acknowledged that 700 will get them to 380 events quicker
No OS (overall survival) bar is set at interim - it is "totality of the data".
Cash should last through 2012 [me- although this would reduce us to scraping the barrel again - doubt they'd go past 2q12]
S Korea and Taiwan are registrational in size, China [believe he said Taiwan in the call, but misspoke] is "quickly approaching" 200.
Japan PMDA still reviewing but no action. Yakult in charge of details of new trial and approach.
ABLATE - data should "closely follow" the approval of TDox. [assuming company guidelines]
Gross margins should be 90%+
SPA says if interim hit FDA would need to be consulted. No specific process.
If only a continue, co guidance is that DMC will only relay that fact. NO EXTRA DATA.
Well placed in terms of competition on horizon.
Co. gets "standard set of data" after continue - but pooled, not broken out per arm - it is still blinded!
No saying when DMC meets or when 190 happened [except we know 190 in 3q11 from the 8k filing. my best guess still second week of Aug '11]
Will not disclose p-value needed at interim. Can figure lots of stat data from that - not fair to all shareholders.
Went to 8-10 weeks for processing data... [believe this incorporates taking "extra care" with data into account w/ the increase over prior 6-8 weeks given]
Not substantially more than 190 events, but included a "safety margin".
Licensing talks continue.
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
MarketWatch contest - round 2 article
MarketWatch is running a contest to find its "Next Great Investing Columnist." I've entered, and my first column made it through the initial round, thanks to social media voting placing me in the top 25.
Now it gets interesting - as they are technically running two contests. There is an "Editors' Pick" winner (who actually wins the gig writing a column) and a "Readers' Pick" (based still on social media voting). The editors picked one additional writer to put through, so there are 26 remaining contestants. This round, 6 total writers will make it through - three Readers' Picks and three Editors' Picks.
I'm pretty much in need of being an Editors' Pick this time, as the top three vote getters in the first round all got more than 300 votes ("likes" on Facebook) and mine, while respectable in the field, drew only 148 votes.
I really don't mean to bag on the actual contest, but allowing the social media voting is a bit of a farce. The lead contestant got over 800 votes, more than twice as many as the second place vote... and the article is in broken English and extremely hard to follow. I guess I need more friends on Facebook. *grin*
I am asking the gentle readers here to visit the column, nevertheless. Any "likes" are certainly welcome, but I would actually appreciate comments in this round. I think the editors are more likely to place some credence on comments this time around!
My second article can be read here:
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/great-columnist/2011/11/07/dont-settle-for-average/
My thanks to all!
Regards,
Trond
Now it gets interesting - as they are technically running two contests. There is an "Editors' Pick" winner (who actually wins the gig writing a column) and a "Readers' Pick" (based still on social media voting). The editors picked one additional writer to put through, so there are 26 remaining contestants. This round, 6 total writers will make it through - three Readers' Picks and three Editors' Picks.
I'm pretty much in need of being an Editors' Pick this time, as the top three vote getters in the first round all got more than 300 votes ("likes" on Facebook) and mine, while respectable in the field, drew only 148 votes.
I really don't mean to bag on the actual contest, but allowing the social media voting is a bit of a farce. The lead contestant got over 800 votes, more than twice as many as the second place vote... and the article is in broken English and extremely hard to follow. I guess I need more friends on Facebook. *grin*
I am asking the gentle readers here to visit the column, nevertheless. Any "likes" are certainly welcome, but I would actually appreciate comments in this round. I think the editors are more likely to place some credence on comments this time around!
My second article can be read here:
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/great-columnist/2011/11/07/dont-settle-for-average/
My thanks to all!
Regards,
Trond
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
Celsion - buy, sell, or hold?
We should be hearing from the DMC (data monitoring committee) regarding the interim results at nearly any moment.
While I am a raging bull as far as Thermodox goes, this is a clinical trial and "anything" can happen. I feel it a very slim-to-none kind of possibility that the trial be stopped for failure, but one has to keep it in mind. If the loss of your dollars here would cause you to lose sleep at night; then it may be time to sell, today.
As long as you can live with that chance, the remaining choices are a recommendation for continuing to the final look or a recommendation for filing for early approval, based on overwhelming statistically significant advantage.
Message boards have been frothy with the odds of success as high as 60% or more. And I have to say, there appears to be some good data backing up such assertations. Nevertheless, the most likely possibility, in my opinion, is simply a continue. So what does that spell, in terms of CLSN's price?
I believe this depends solely (short term) on what data is released with such a recommendation. It is important to note that the DMC does not have to release anything extra. That said, if there is a definite trend, regardless of meeting the higher bar at interim, it is conventionally believed that the committee will say something about the data.
A drop, short term, could easily happen, especially if there is not extra data released. Many stat experts have been saying, contrary to company assertations, that the final look at 380 PFS events will not occur until mid 2013 (company has been guiding for about Q3 2012). With such an extra amount of time in between interim and final, I think the price would drop again to the $2s.
However, with the release of some data, speaking to the improvement seen to date or at least the placebo arm's performance, would go a long way to being able to peg the actual performance of Thermodox. If we can see that at the final, it looks to be a success, we could even see some price appreciation.
A buy here would simply be a lottery ticket for interim success; with normal volatility I'd say a hold here is prudent, again as long as you can stand the possibility of a near 100% loss on an admittedly low chance of trial failure.
Regards,
Trond
While I am a raging bull as far as Thermodox goes, this is a clinical trial and "anything" can happen. I feel it a very slim-to-none kind of possibility that the trial be stopped for failure, but one has to keep it in mind. If the loss of your dollars here would cause you to lose sleep at night; then it may be time to sell, today.
As long as you can live with that chance, the remaining choices are a recommendation for continuing to the final look or a recommendation for filing for early approval, based on overwhelming statistically significant advantage.
Message boards have been frothy with the odds of success as high as 60% or more. And I have to say, there appears to be some good data backing up such assertations. Nevertheless, the most likely possibility, in my opinion, is simply a continue. So what does that spell, in terms of CLSN's price?
I believe this depends solely (short term) on what data is released with such a recommendation. It is important to note that the DMC does not have to release anything extra. That said, if there is a definite trend, regardless of meeting the higher bar at interim, it is conventionally believed that the committee will say something about the data.
A drop, short term, could easily happen, especially if there is not extra data released. Many stat experts have been saying, contrary to company assertations, that the final look at 380 PFS events will not occur until mid 2013 (company has been guiding for about Q3 2012). With such an extra amount of time in between interim and final, I think the price would drop again to the $2s.
However, with the release of some data, speaking to the improvement seen to date or at least the placebo arm's performance, would go a long way to being able to peg the actual performance of Thermodox. If we can see that at the final, it looks to be a success, we could even see some price appreciation.
A buy here would simply be a lottery ticket for interim success; with normal volatility I'd say a hold here is prudent, again as long as you can stand the possibility of a near 100% loss on an admittedly low chance of trial failure.
Regards,
Trond
Monday, October 24, 2011
HARPing on refi reform
President Obama is stumping for changes to the HARP program -- and while I try to stay politically neutral here, I reserve the right to call out idiocy anywhere I see it. (and yes, idiocy may be a stronger word than is called for - but wasting political capital slightly modifying a program that is very weak and doesn't address some fundamental issues, is not exactly smart)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-refi-plan-targets-hard-hit-borrowers-2011-10-24?siteid=nwhpf
"To spark interest in HARP, the program will lower fees, eliminate the current 125% loan-to-value ceiling, waive lender warranties and eliminate the need for property appraisals. "
Gee, make it easier for bad credit risks to refinance? Here's my take.
Yes, something needs to be done. But allowing people who fundamentally are screwed *anyway* to get out of their loans (which includes forgiveness of some principal) shifts the burden unfairly to the bank-stock shareholders. If you are underwater on a mortgage, it is not necessarily an emergency. Absent plans to move, all it takes is some time to change the situation. The wholesale granting of "liar's loans" a few years ago was obviously a stupid things for banks to do; I am NOT excusing them. But folks who enter a mortgage need to realize that a secured loan is exactly that - and the house IS the security. You pledge to pay $250,000, and fail to pay it back - you don't get to keep the house. No one questions the repossession of a car after failing to pay a $20,000 car loan!
So it is all well and good to question this kind of program - but what do I propose instead?
First, only allowing a program that is guaranteed by FreddieMac or FannieMae does not help the 70% of homeowners who have a mortgage through another institution. Secondly, principal should not be forgiven. Third, credit issues still need to be resolved. Here's my proposal.
Allow a two-year period where refinances can be done with the following waivers:
* Any amount can be refinanced, up to the current loan amount.
This only makes sense. If the bank is on the hook for $400,000, then they by definition cannot be hurt by allowing a refinance of $400,000. By allowing the refi, they increase their chances of getting repaid AND make more in interest charges the next few years!
* Modify the appraisal process.
This is basically a correlary of the above point. We don't care about what the home is worth; we just want to make sure it is structurally sound.
* Credit still needs to be checked. Income verification needs to be revamped.
We do want to make sure that the loans made can still be repaid. If a household is bringing in $5,000 a month, is there any doubt that a $2,000 payment - 40% of their income!! - might be a stretch, still? If their P&I payment was $2,800 a month but an extra member of the household used to be working, their situation has changed enough that perhaps they shouldn't be owning a house anymore.
I guess I am angry that only a small percentage of homeowners may qualify under HARP and that the fix hurts shareholders who have already been nailed by the last few years of bank stocks' crumbling share prices.
Regards,
Trond Hildahl
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-refi-plan-targets-hard-hit-borrowers-2011-10-24?siteid=nwhpf
"To spark interest in HARP, the program will lower fees, eliminate the current 125% loan-to-value ceiling, waive lender warranties and eliminate the need for property appraisals. "
Gee, make it easier for bad credit risks to refinance? Here's my take.
Yes, something needs to be done. But allowing people who fundamentally are screwed *anyway* to get out of their loans (which includes forgiveness of some principal) shifts the burden unfairly to the bank-stock shareholders. If you are underwater on a mortgage, it is not necessarily an emergency. Absent plans to move, all it takes is some time to change the situation. The wholesale granting of "liar's loans" a few years ago was obviously a stupid things for banks to do; I am NOT excusing them. But folks who enter a mortgage need to realize that a secured loan is exactly that - and the house IS the security. You pledge to pay $250,000, and fail to pay it back - you don't get to keep the house. No one questions the repossession of a car after failing to pay a $20,000 car loan!
So it is all well and good to question this kind of program - but what do I propose instead?
First, only allowing a program that is guaranteed by FreddieMac or FannieMae does not help the 70% of homeowners who have a mortgage through another institution. Secondly, principal should not be forgiven. Third, credit issues still need to be resolved. Here's my proposal.
Allow a two-year period where refinances can be done with the following waivers:
* Any amount can be refinanced, up to the current loan amount.
This only makes sense. If the bank is on the hook for $400,000, then they by definition cannot be hurt by allowing a refinance of $400,000. By allowing the refi, they increase their chances of getting repaid AND make more in interest charges the next few years!
* Modify the appraisal process.
This is basically a correlary of the above point. We don't care about what the home is worth; we just want to make sure it is structurally sound.
* Credit still needs to be checked. Income verification needs to be revamped.
We do want to make sure that the loans made can still be repaid. If a household is bringing in $5,000 a month, is there any doubt that a $2,000 payment - 40% of their income!! - might be a stretch, still? If their P&I payment was $2,800 a month but an extra member of the household used to be working, their situation has changed enough that perhaps they shouldn't be owning a house anymore.
I guess I am angry that only a small percentage of homeowners may qualify under HARP and that the fix hurts shareholders who have already been nailed by the last few years of bank stocks' crumbling share prices.
Regards,
Trond Hildahl
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Next Great Investing Column contest
Well, I appear to be in full solicitation mode this morning. Facebook, Twitter, Google+, and now my blog...
I'm in a contest to become an investment column writer for MarketWatch. The first stage's winners (25 of them) are determined solely by social media voting. If you've enjoyed my blog posts over the years, please help me out and vote for me here: http://blogs.marketwatch.com/great-columnist/2011/10/19/dont-be-an-english-lord/.
And THANKS!
Regards,
Trond Hildahl
I'm in a contest to become an investment column writer for MarketWatch. The first stage's winners (25 of them) are determined solely by social media voting. If you've enjoyed my blog posts over the years, please help me out and vote for me here: http://blogs.marketwatch.com/great-columnist/2011/10/19/dont-be-an-english-lord/.
And THANKS!
Regards,
Trond Hildahl
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Marketocracy results
Well, I am a big fan of full disclosure, but this is a hard post to write. The Marketocracy website allows anyone to participate in managing a mutual fund - fake of course. Nevertheless, you are bound by some rules; you can't bet it all on one stock, as no one stock can be more than a certain percent of the total. You can't be on margin, and you must be at least 65% invested. If you want to be a sector based fund, then a certain percentage of the holdings must be in that sector. They do all the calculations across months, quarters, and years to figure your returns and most importantly, compare those returns against the other marketocracy funds.
The best of the best are called the M100 - the 100 best performers, long term; culled from the 85,000+ managers and the 100,000+ funds being managed. Those 100 actually make a little money, too - the company uses the best managers' ideas to run an actual mutual fund and those managers are compensated. It is no secret that I firmly intend to be one of those manangers one day.
And that is why I am writing so sheepishly today. They update the quarterly returns quite late - Q2 was just posted about a month ago. And in my Heartstone Health fund (http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=CmOhHbFfEfOmLoNbMaKiAbDf), I was the 7th best fund (yes, 7th, not top 7%!!!) for the three month period. For the 3 year returns, for as long as I've HAD the fund for more than 3 years, I've been in the top 89%, and this quarter I came in at #67 overall.
I was ecstatic, of course, but now for the disclosure. Since they posted the results in September, I knew already that my 3rd quarter results were going to equal my second quarter results to the downside. Yes, I fear that I may well be the 7th WORST fund across the universe this coming quarter. Celsion dipped about 40%; VirnetX went from the $30s to about $20; and Dendreon crashed from the $30s to about $10! To be frank, I am not sure if any holding had a positive return in this quarter.
Since I am a sector fund (biotech/healthcare) my beta is quite a bit higher than the S&P 500. Beta is a measure of how volatile I am versus the market-as-a-whole. It is the long term that matters, of course, and I'm fully confident that I will come back and with a vengeance. Bring on the fourth quarter!
Regards,
Trond
The best of the best are called the M100 - the 100 best performers, long term; culled from the 85,000+ managers and the 100,000+ funds being managed. Those 100 actually make a little money, too - the company uses the best managers' ideas to run an actual mutual fund and those managers are compensated. It is no secret that I firmly intend to be one of those manangers one day.
And that is why I am writing so sheepishly today. They update the quarterly returns quite late - Q2 was just posted about a month ago. And in my Heartstone Health fund (http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=CmOhHbFfEfOmLoNbMaKiAbDf), I was the 7th best fund (yes, 7th, not top 7%!!!) for the three month period. For the 3 year returns, for as long as I've HAD the fund for more than 3 years, I've been in the top 89%, and this quarter I came in at #67 overall.
I was ecstatic, of course, but now for the disclosure. Since they posted the results in September, I knew already that my 3rd quarter results were going to equal my second quarter results to the downside. Yes, I fear that I may well be the 7th WORST fund across the universe this coming quarter. Celsion dipped about 40%; VirnetX went from the $30s to about $20; and Dendreon crashed from the $30s to about $10! To be frank, I am not sure if any holding had a positive return in this quarter.
Since I am a sector fund (biotech/healthcare) my beta is quite a bit higher than the S&P 500. Beta is a measure of how volatile I am versus the market-as-a-whole. It is the long term that matters, of course, and I'm fully confident that I will come back and with a vengeance. Bring on the fourth quarter!
Regards,
Trond
Sunday, October 16, 2011
Celsion info re: Mangrove
Hello all,
It has been quite awhile since I have updated the blog. I've been a busy beaver on multiple fronts, but I still have great expectation for Celsion. Below, please follow the link to a great interview with Nate August, whose Mangrove Partners, LLP recently took an 8% stake in Celsion, expecting a great result at the interim look of the HEAT trial.
http://celsion.blogspot.com/2011/10/exclusive-interview-with-mangrove.html
Regards,
Trond
It has been quite awhile since I have updated the blog. I've been a busy beaver on multiple fronts, but I still have great expectation for Celsion. Below, please follow the link to a great interview with Nate August, whose Mangrove Partners, LLP recently took an 8% stake in Celsion, expecting a great result at the interim look of the HEAT trial.
http://celsion.blogspot.com/2011/10/exclusive-interview-with-mangrove.html
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Barry Ritholtz's blog
Occasionally there is something blogged that compresses exactly what I'd like to say in such a simple way that I just can't improve it. Barry Ritholtz (The Big Picture) is such a writer most days, and I highly recommend a daily stop there.
Check out his post today (and his linked article about black swan events is a must-read as well).
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/what-should-investors-do-now/
People almost always need to do "something", however. If you can't just sit on your hands, I'd suggest reviewing your allocations, now that stocks have taken a pounding.
-Is it time to rebalance so that you buy into stocks again now, when they are "on sale"?
-Have you contributed fully to your IRA for the year? Get it in now and buy low.
Yes, the markets could certainly sink somewhat lower. Is it the end of the world yet? Probably not! While I think we could see a recession again in the next quarter, the stock market has been diverging from the economy quite a bit in the last three years - Sept/Oct, when going down, is historically a pretty good time to be buying stocks.
Regards,
Trond
Check out his post today (and his linked article about black swan events is a must-read as well).
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/what-should-investors-do-now/
People almost always need to do "something", however. If you can't just sit on your hands, I'd suggest reviewing your allocations, now that stocks have taken a pounding.
-Is it time to rebalance so that you buy into stocks again now, when they are "on sale"?
-Have you contributed fully to your IRA for the year? Get it in now and buy low.
Yes, the markets could certainly sink somewhat lower. Is it the end of the world yet? Probably not! While I think we could see a recession again in the next quarter, the stock market has been diverging from the economy quite a bit in the last three years - Sept/Oct, when going down, is historically a pretty good time to be buying stocks.
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, September 8, 2011
More thoughts on Celsion's 190th event
So it looks like the company has probably hit the 190th event... recent PRs talk about "confirming" rather than "achieving" the 190th event.
A reputable poster (biopharmpr) on Yahoo, who also tweets a bit under Magicsia and has a blog with some great info about Celsion, says he spoke with IR and the company is now backing off saying they will PR when the 190 happens.
Supposedly, they are concerned about having more than 190 events by the time they confirm 190 for sure, and then having to explain THAT makes them not want to do so at all. So - it is getting more likely that the next PR about the HEAT trial will end up being the actual interim results!!
I don't like this for several reasons, and I will probably call Jeff Church tomorrow when I can get my thoughts down cogently. But the important things for CLSN investors today are:
Per the last filng, they expect the 190th event in the 3rd Q and results in the 4th Q.
Previous guidance is for 6-8 weeks between the two.
Absolute best case is results by 9/17 -- meaning the 190th occured quite a while ago, has already been confirmed, and the DMC is currently doing the scutwork of visiting sites and checking paperwork ad nauseam... leading to a postulation of the interim results at 8 weeks by 10/1, but being done in only 6 weeks: 9/17/11. I find this extremely unlikely and think Q4 means exactly that.
Worst case would be the end of December. This could happen if radiologic reviews truly take 2-4 months to accomplish, meaning the event probably happened already, the confirms are pending, and might still take a couple months from now. Adding in the 6-8 weeks to compile/check the trial site info, we could be looking at December before knowing results.
I am mostly in shares, but did dabble in Oct and Jan calls. I think Jan are definitely the safest but there could easily be an "October Surprise" by the third Friday of October. I still expect a runup through September to the $5-7 range. As Mr. Market gets wind of the potential of Thermodox (and who doesn't like a binary event thrown in?) there will be some speculators also riding this up.
Regards,
Trond
A reputable poster (biopharmpr) on Yahoo, who also tweets a bit under Magicsia and has a blog with some great info about Celsion, says he spoke with IR and the company is now backing off saying they will PR when the 190 happens.
Supposedly, they are concerned about having more than 190 events by the time they confirm 190 for sure, and then having to explain THAT makes them not want to do so at all. So - it is getting more likely that the next PR about the HEAT trial will end up being the actual interim results!!
I don't like this for several reasons, and I will probably call Jeff Church tomorrow when I can get my thoughts down cogently. But the important things for CLSN investors today are:
Per the last filng, they expect the 190th event in the 3rd Q and results in the 4th Q.
Previous guidance is for 6-8 weeks between the two.
Absolute best case is results by 9/17 -- meaning the 190th occured quite a while ago, has already been confirmed, and the DMC is currently doing the scutwork of visiting sites and checking paperwork ad nauseam... leading to a postulation of the interim results at 8 weeks by 10/1, but being done in only 6 weeks: 9/17/11. I find this extremely unlikely and think Q4 means exactly that.
Worst case would be the end of December. This could happen if radiologic reviews truly take 2-4 months to accomplish, meaning the event probably happened already, the confirms are pending, and might still take a couple months from now. Adding in the 6-8 weeks to compile/check the trial site info, we could be looking at December before knowing results.
I am mostly in shares, but did dabble in Oct and Jan calls. I think Jan are definitely the safest but there could easily be an "October Surprise" by the third Friday of October. I still expect a runup through September to the $5-7 range. As Mr. Market gets wind of the potential of Thermodox (and who doesn't like a binary event thrown in?) there will be some speculators also riding this up.
Regards,
Trond
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Dendreon - time to cut bait
I am selling all remaining shares of Dendreon in the Port24 - today's current price is $11.58. This is at a steep loss to the buy in price, but I simply have no patience for mgmt anymore.
I certainly hope I'll be buying in again at some point, but what with mgmt indications from the last call that they will be letting folks go and the unwillingness to throw out any kind of revenue estimates, I cannot urge a position here at the present time.
Regards,
Trond
I certainly hope I'll be buying in again at some point, but what with mgmt indications from the last call that they will be letting folks go and the unwillingness to throw out any kind of revenue estimates, I cannot urge a position here at the present time.
Regards,
Trond
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
Celsion - To PR (190) or not to PR
An online friend contacted CLSN's IR today regarding the 190th even in the HEAT trial. Instead of regurgitating the content, I am just going to direct you there.
I will note, however, that I am putting less credence on having results by the options expiration in October. I still firmly believe we'll see quite a runup through Sept and October, but anyone betting on the Oct strike timeframe will probably not see the actual results by then.
http://celsion.blogspot.com/2011/09/dont-bank-on-190-pfs-event-press.html
regards,
Trond
I will note, however, that I am putting less credence on having results by the options expiration in October. I still firmly believe we'll see quite a runup through Sept and October, but anyone betting on the Oct strike timeframe will probably not see the actual results by then.
http://celsion.blogspot.com/2011/09/dont-bank-on-190-pfs-event-press.html
regards,
Trond
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Building a business
As announced previously, I am going through a number of steps to hang out a shingle on my own. I'll be doing financial planning and investment management; combining what I love to do, I love to talk about, and what I can see myself doing for a long time without burning out.
In the next few weeks, I'll post somewhat frequently about the steps in setting up such a business. While a sole proprietorship in some industries can be started by simply taking on work, this type of business is quite convoluted in some ways.
For liability reasons, I have decided that I need to either incorporate or form an LLC. And as a financial planner, I will need to pass the NASD Series 65 test to become a Registered Investment Adviser (RIA).
Those two steps, and the associated compliance, will take a couple months as well as about $7K to get the ball rolling. Then there are the practicalities to think about:
An office, a home-office, or a "virtual" office?
Equipment? Laptops, smart phones...
Business name, fictitious business name, trade/service marks, logo design...
Domain names, building a website...
Accounting! Taxes!
CRM (client relationship mgmt) software, electronic signature vendor...
Marketing! Advertising! Networking (I don't know any millionaires, personally), what is my niche? What are my bragging points?
What services exactly will I offer? Pricing?
Fortunately I do not see myself hiring employees for a long time yet... reading up on all the hoops that an employer must go through gave me a headache.
One thing I know for certain, is that I will be using the Spoke Fund concept (see www.SpokeFund.com) for how I handle investing money. Starting a mutual fund would cost about $400K, and while a hedge fund is much cheaper, you can only advertise to "high net worth individuals"... or basically millionaires. With a Spoke Fund, the investor's money remains in his or her own name, with a discount brokerage custodian I select, but invested according to a model of stocks I control. Importantly, my own account is the "hub" - where I am invested in the model myself with all the risks and rewards - and the "spokes" connecting my account and my clients' accounts are simply the model's percentages of the various investments.
As to financial planning, I intend on being a fee-only planner, taking no commissions, kickbacks, or other incentives for the products I may recommend.
So please, gentle reader, lay it on me! Ideas this post may have raised? Questions on the whys or hows? Advice from experience? I thank you and look forward to any comments!
Regards,
Trond
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
401(k) asset allocation
Just a very quick note.
With the market plunge this week, it may be a good time to review your 401(k) existing balances. The percentage you want in stocks may have dipped, and it would be a good time to transfer some dollars from cash or bond into the stock funds.
Rebalancing is touted as a good way to enforce moving money from hotter sectors into weaker sectors - before the hot grows cold and prior to the cold warming up! But those who rebalance only on an annual basis will miss out of this kind of volatility that allows mid-year corrections.
Regards,
Trond
With the market plunge this week, it may be a good time to review your 401(k) existing balances. The percentage you want in stocks may have dipped, and it would be a good time to transfer some dollars from cash or bond into the stock funds.
Rebalancing is touted as a good way to enforce moving money from hotter sectors into weaker sectors - before the hot grows cold and prior to the cold warming up! But those who rebalance only on an annual basis will miss out of this kind of volatility that allows mid-year corrections.
Regards,
Trond
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Celsion Q2 conference call
I'm most disappointed that they again missed their guidance on the interim calc - most recently in July, they said they'd have results from the interim by the end of Sept. According to the 10Q (pg 20), they now expect the 190th event "in Q3" and the interim results "in Q4". With 6-8 weeks necessary for that calc, that means the results could be anywhere from 10/1 to 11/25. I thus sold my Oct calls today, perhaps a bit hasty but Jan is now the safest. Still expect a runup, just pushed back again by a month or so.
Everything else looked okay, CRLM trial being initiated, EMA guidance for trial approval by eoy, Japan will start a separate trial from HEAT so as to take different standard of care issues into account - Yakult still responsible for 100% of that new trial costs. RCW Phase 2 trial (Dignity study) will be extended to other indications than just RCW cancer in order to speed enrollment, but that kills the registrational ability.
Please note that pushing out the 190 event was blamed on the slower than expected enrollment, but there is some reason for optimism about how well Thermodox is doing. The trial was based on assuming the placebo (RFA only) would lead to a median PFS of about 12 months and Tdox extending that by 33%. It appears to me that both arms are doing better than assumed, but Tdox by at least the same proportion. I still intend on selling 1/2 to 2/3 on the runup, but I'm getting a bit more excited about interim success.
Regards,
Trond
Sunday, August 7, 2011
S&P downgrades US debt
The "unthinkable" happened Friday night when US debt was downgraded from AAA to AA+.
While horrifying to me, simply because it was avoidable, I have some hopes this will be considered a tempest in a teapot within a few weeks. I certainly expect tomorrow's stock market open to be down, but there are some mitigating factors at work.
First, the S&P ratings agency is one of the crooks who gave low risk / reasonable quality credit ratings to all those CDOs that were the culprit of the financial crisis. That fact is pretty widely known - and it is like home inspector who gives you a great report, leaves you with a house that has holes in the roof, and has his brother (coincidentally a roof-repair contractor) come for a visit next time it rains.
Second, Europe (the G-7) was hard at work over the weekend soothing fears over the pond about their own credit woes.
Third, this market has been dominated by momentum traders for the last year - meeting all dips with buying fervor. A lot of cash left the market over the last two days, and will be looking for a home.
Fourth, such a downgrade is bad, but Moody's (the other major credit rating agency) did NOT lower their rating.
Finally, when risk goes up, prices tend to fall. In the bond market, you can look at this thusly: if you think a bond is riskier, that means you think that you have a lower chance of being repaid. For existing bonds being traded tomorrow, that lowers the price you can sell them for. People selling those bonds will be looking for better returns and some may end up looking at the stock market (I would propose dividend-paying large cap stocks or ETFs).
A final note is that it will be very interesting seeing the results of the next treasury auction. For bonds to-be-issued, you would demand a higher interest rate to compensate you for the higher default risk mentioned above. Having higher interest rates will cause more issues down the road - paying just the interest on our national debt is doable at the moment because of the historically low interest rates. If you think the bickering over the debt ceiling was acrimonious and protracted - wait until higher interest rates cause us to make really hard choices between cutting expenses and raising taxes.
I am absolutely incensed that ALL of our Congresspeople have forsaken their duties to We-The-People and brought this on. Both Democrats and Republican share the blame here, and the black eye the S&P ratings agency gave us is most definitely their fault alone. We need them to rise above partisan lines and fix these issues: it will take raising some taxes, lowering or erasing some deductible categories, massive cuts in some agencies and freezing the budgets of others, and meaningful discussions about SSI and Medicare.
I am not selling anything Monday morning, and will be looking to buy certain companies at fire-sale prices. As Warren Buffet famously said, "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
Regards,
Trond
While horrifying to me, simply because it was avoidable, I have some hopes this will be considered a tempest in a teapot within a few weeks. I certainly expect tomorrow's stock market open to be down, but there are some mitigating factors at work.
First, the S&P ratings agency is one of the crooks who gave low risk / reasonable quality credit ratings to all those CDOs that were the culprit of the financial crisis. That fact is pretty widely known - and it is like home inspector who gives you a great report, leaves you with a house that has holes in the roof, and has his brother (coincidentally a roof-repair contractor) come for a visit next time it rains.
Second, Europe (the G-7) was hard at work over the weekend soothing fears over the pond about their own credit woes.
Third, this market has been dominated by momentum traders for the last year - meeting all dips with buying fervor. A lot of cash left the market over the last two days, and will be looking for a home.
Fourth, such a downgrade is bad, but Moody's (the other major credit rating agency) did NOT lower their rating.
Finally, when risk goes up, prices tend to fall. In the bond market, you can look at this thusly: if you think a bond is riskier, that means you think that you have a lower chance of being repaid. For existing bonds being traded tomorrow, that lowers the price you can sell them for. People selling those bonds will be looking for better returns and some may end up looking at the stock market (I would propose dividend-paying large cap stocks or ETFs).
A final note is that it will be very interesting seeing the results of the next treasury auction. For bonds to-be-issued, you would demand a higher interest rate to compensate you for the higher default risk mentioned above. Having higher interest rates will cause more issues down the road - paying just the interest on our national debt is doable at the moment because of the historically low interest rates. If you think the bickering over the debt ceiling was acrimonious and protracted - wait until higher interest rates cause us to make really hard choices between cutting expenses and raising taxes.
I am absolutely incensed that ALL of our Congresspeople have forsaken their duties to We-The-People and brought this on. Both Democrats and Republican share the blame here, and the black eye the S&P ratings agency gave us is most definitely their fault alone. We need them to rise above partisan lines and fix these issues: it will take raising some taxes, lowering or erasing some deductible categories, massive cuts in some agencies and freezing the budgets of others, and meaningful discussions about SSI and Medicare.
I am not selling anything Monday morning, and will be looking to buy certain companies at fire-sale prices. As Warren Buffet famously said, "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
Regards,
Trond
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
The RollerCoaster named Dendreon
Long time readers and friends know, I love me some Dendreon.
I started reading up on Provenge back in 2006, was just about "all-in" in 2007 during the FDA's Advisory Committee meeting that okayed it, and watched in horror as the FDA then gave the company a Complete Response Letter (CRL) a month later.
I sold some over the next couple years, but was again an active investor in 2010 when they finally got approval. I sold some in the $50s, more in the $40s, and finally sold the very last amount (save one single Jan 2012 call option) around $35, last November. I stay on top of the company news, however, and consider myself a Dendreonaire.
It is with awe and a sickening feeling, then, to see the after hours cratering of the stock price, following the Q2 earnings call. A transcript of that call can be found here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/284445-dendreon-corp-s-ceo-discusses-q2-2011-results-earnings-call-transcript
Let me sum up the entire issue in one paragraph, if I may. Provenge costs $93,000 for a one month round of therapy (3 infusions). Prescribing doctors make about $6K for themselves, but have to "eat" the entire $93K on a credit line or their own resources until they get reimbursed by insurance/Medicare. Up until extremely late June, there was a question of whether Medicare would cover Provenge (and while it did get a determination for coverage, that fact isn't even posted on the proper website yet!). Thus, for cash flow purposes, few urology or oncology practices could prescribe more than 1 patient at a time. Moreover, due to manufacturing limitations and the scale/cost of the one approved plant through most of this period, the company was unwilling to push large scale scripts yet.
All of the preceding hopefully explains the carnage in the stock price. At the end of after hours trading, it was around $13.70 - down from a regular session closing price of $35!
So the proper question now is, what to do: buy, sell, or hold?
The price tomorrow? It could well be $10, or it could be $17.
I would suggest that if one has no position, and a holding period of a half year or more, this is an excellent time to buy, if within the range above.
If you own shares currently, I'd hold on, all else being equal.
I feel, given the facts known now, that the company will recover from this, and end the year 2011 over $20. It may be 2013 before we see the $40s again, but for an extremely long term p-o-v, I believe this is a solid company that should be a core position.
Regards,
Trond
I started reading up on Provenge back in 2006, was just about "all-in" in 2007 during the FDA's Advisory Committee meeting that okayed it, and watched in horror as the FDA then gave the company a Complete Response Letter (CRL) a month later.
I sold some over the next couple years, but was again an active investor in 2010 when they finally got approval. I sold some in the $50s, more in the $40s, and finally sold the very last amount (save one single Jan 2012 call option) around $35, last November. I stay on top of the company news, however, and consider myself a Dendreonaire.
It is with awe and a sickening feeling, then, to see the after hours cratering of the stock price, following the Q2 earnings call. A transcript of that call can be found here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/284445-dendreon-corp-s-ceo-discusses-q2-2011-results-earnings-call-transcript
Let me sum up the entire issue in one paragraph, if I may. Provenge costs $93,000 for a one month round of therapy (3 infusions). Prescribing doctors make about $6K for themselves, but have to "eat" the entire $93K on a credit line or their own resources until they get reimbursed by insurance/Medicare. Up until extremely late June, there was a question of whether Medicare would cover Provenge (and while it did get a determination for coverage, that fact isn't even posted on the proper website yet!). Thus, for cash flow purposes, few urology or oncology practices could prescribe more than 1 patient at a time. Moreover, due to manufacturing limitations and the scale/cost of the one approved plant through most of this period, the company was unwilling to push large scale scripts yet.
All of the preceding hopefully explains the carnage in the stock price. At the end of after hours trading, it was around $13.70 - down from a regular session closing price of $35!
So the proper question now is, what to do: buy, sell, or hold?
The price tomorrow? It could well be $10, or it could be $17.
I would suggest that if one has no position, and a holding period of a half year or more, this is an excellent time to buy, if within the range above.
If you own shares currently, I'd hold on, all else being equal.
I feel, given the facts known now, that the company will recover from this, and end the year 2011 over $20. It may be 2013 before we see the $40s again, but for an extremely long term p-o-v, I believe this is a solid company that should be a core position.
Regards,
Trond
Sunday, July 31, 2011
Celsion upgrade and expectations
JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised their target price on Celsion on Thursday, to $8.50.
http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2011/07/29/jpmorgan-chase-co-jpm-analysts-raise-price-target-on-celsion-co-clsn-to-8-50/
While typically I would hesitate to even point this out, since Needham is the only analyst thus far to cover the company, I view the addition of JPM to the coverage "stable" as a good thing. With enrollment in the HEAT trial expected to be completed at 600 either this coming week or next, and the 190th Progression Free Survival (PFS) event expected in a similar timeframe, the more eyeballs the better.
They raised another $18M in cash two weeks ago, appearing flush with cash for the first time in years, while maintaining an outstanding share count somewhere around 23M. While they typically have their Q2 earnings call in the first week or so of August, it would not surprise me in the least to see them await these two events before hosting that call - I'm sure the management has no desire to hear all the questions about the trial that they would simply need to be answering within another week!
I still expect a decent runup into August and September; with the price at a post-offering price of $3.83 I'd like to see it hit between $5 and $7 in the next 2-8 weeks. The interim calculation results, still explicitly guided for by the end of September, are expected to take 6-8 weeks after the 600 & 190 events. I'd hazard that the later of those two events will happen by August 12.
I know several readers have advised me they have purchased Celsion shares or options; I still think shares are "safer" but acknowledge the leverage options allow. For me, as a new trade and looking at the October or January calls, I would pay the little extra premium the January strikes demand, for the security of the extra three months.
I hold a pretty large position of CLSN and will be lightening the load in Aug and Sep prior to the interim results.
Regards,
Trond
http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2011/07/29/jpmorgan-chase-co-jpm-analysts-raise-price-target-on-celsion-co-clsn-to-8-50/
While typically I would hesitate to even point this out, since Needham is the only analyst thus far to cover the company, I view the addition of JPM to the coverage "stable" as a good thing. With enrollment in the HEAT trial expected to be completed at 600 either this coming week or next, and the 190th Progression Free Survival (PFS) event expected in a similar timeframe, the more eyeballs the better.
They raised another $18M in cash two weeks ago, appearing flush with cash for the first time in years, while maintaining an outstanding share count somewhere around 23M. While they typically have their Q2 earnings call in the first week or so of August, it would not surprise me in the least to see them await these two events before hosting that call - I'm sure the management has no desire to hear all the questions about the trial that they would simply need to be answering within another week!
I still expect a decent runup into August and September; with the price at a post-offering price of $3.83 I'd like to see it hit between $5 and $7 in the next 2-8 weeks. The interim calculation results, still explicitly guided for by the end of September, are expected to take 6-8 weeks after the 600 & 190 events. I'd hazard that the later of those two events will happen by August 12.
I know several readers have advised me they have purchased Celsion shares or options; I still think shares are "safer" but acknowledge the leverage options allow. For me, as a new trade and looking at the October or January calls, I would pay the little extra premium the January strikes demand, for the security of the extra three months.
I hold a pretty large position of CLSN and will be lightening the load in Aug and Sep prior to the interim results.
Regards,
Trond
Monday, July 25, 2011
Today's trades and new Port24 additions
I have two trades for covered call fanatics, today. PIP and VHC both have very good arguments for a trade which yield 14 and 8%, respectively.
PIP is trading at $2.74, with the Aug11 $2.50s selling for $0.65. You'll end up losing 24 cents on the shares, if exercised, but gain the 65 cents on the option, netting 41 cents profit per $2.74 share - over 14% for a month. On the downside (especially important to note if they lose their lawsuit) you are "protected" down to $2.09.
VHC is trading at $34.55 with the Aug11 $35s selling for $2.80. That is an 8% dividend while you wait, with an extra 1% of capital gains if exercised.
I think both of these will end where they are, or higher, on 8/19/11.
---
On the Port24 front, I miss having NBIX already, but will not buy in again here.
I bought 2500 CORT at $3.82, 6000 PPHM at $1.78, and 1800 ZIOP at $5.87. I am trying to buy lots of stock that end up somewhere around $10K at a whack.
I sold 20 Jan12 $2.50 calls against 2000 of the 6000 PPHM (Peregrine Pharma) for $25/contract. This is about a 14% return for the 6 month period, with an additional 40% return if exercised. I LOVE this risk/reward ratio, especially since I've only sold options on a third of the position. If the price rises into the $2s again, I will sell more, at much higher premiums.
I also sold 18 Aug11 $6 calls against the ZIOP (Ziopharm) for $25/contract. While "only" a 4% return for the month, I am more than willing to either lose the stock if over $6, or rinse and repeat under $6.
CORT (Corcept) is a stock I will hang onto for a couple months, assuming there will be a runup into the $5s or more as the FDA PDUFA date approaches. I'll sell calls at that point.
Port24:
19.8% annualized return (since 5/14/2008)
$5,468.80 in cash
1500 ARQL (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2600 CLDX (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
300 DNDN (0)
1100 EXEL (0)
2000 MITI (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
2500 PIP (0)
1600 SGMO (0)
2500 CORT (0)
6000 PPHM (20)
1800 ZIOP (18)
PIP is trading at $2.74, with the Aug11 $2.50s selling for $0.65. You'll end up losing 24 cents on the shares, if exercised, but gain the 65 cents on the option, netting 41 cents profit per $2.74 share - over 14% for a month. On the downside (especially important to note if they lose their lawsuit) you are "protected" down to $2.09.
VHC is trading at $34.55 with the Aug11 $35s selling for $2.80. That is an 8% dividend while you wait, with an extra 1% of capital gains if exercised.
I think both of these will end where they are, or higher, on 8/19/11.
---
On the Port24 front, I miss having NBIX already, but will not buy in again here.
I bought 2500 CORT at $3.82, 6000 PPHM at $1.78, and 1800 ZIOP at $5.87. I am trying to buy lots of stock that end up somewhere around $10K at a whack.
I sold 20 Jan12 $2.50 calls against 2000 of the 6000 PPHM (Peregrine Pharma) for $25/contract. This is about a 14% return for the 6 month period, with an additional 40% return if exercised. I LOVE this risk/reward ratio, especially since I've only sold options on a third of the position. If the price rises into the $2s again, I will sell more, at much higher premiums.
I also sold 18 Aug11 $6 calls against the ZIOP (Ziopharm) for $25/contract. While "only" a 4% return for the month, I am more than willing to either lose the stock if over $6, or rinse and repeat under $6.
CORT (Corcept) is a stock I will hang onto for a couple months, assuming there will be a runup into the $5s or more as the FDA PDUFA date approaches. I'll sell calls at that point.
Port24:
19.8% annualized return (since 5/14/2008)
$5,468.80 in cash
1500 ARQL (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2600 CLDX (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
300 DNDN (0)
1100 EXEL (0)
2000 MITI (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
2500 PIP (0)
1600 SGMO (0)
2500 CORT (0)
6000 PPHM (20)
1800 ZIOP (18)
Saturday, July 23, 2011
July options
Oops, neglected to update the options expiration on the Port24 last weekend!
I had four stocks with calls sold against them - DNDN, EXEL, NBIX, and PIP. Dendreon and Exelixis expired under the strike price, so I retain the shares. NBIX and PIP were called away (although I retain some extra PIP, as I did not sell calls against the entire position).
The Port positions are shown below; I have $35,397.31 in cash with a 20.5% annualized return as of 7/22/11.
I do expect Celsion to continue its run; HEAT enrollment and the 190th PFS event should occur within 3 weeks now. I intend (in the Port24) to start taking some profits around the $5 mark - I'd bought lots around $2.64 and $2.31.
Regards,
Trond
# / Ticker / (calls sold)
1500 ARQL (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2600 CLDX (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
300 DNDN (0)
1100 EXEL (0)
2000 MITI (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
2500 PIP (0)
1600 SGMO (0)
I had four stocks with calls sold against them - DNDN, EXEL, NBIX, and PIP. Dendreon and Exelixis expired under the strike price, so I retain the shares. NBIX and PIP were called away (although I retain some extra PIP, as I did not sell calls against the entire position).
The Port positions are shown below; I have $35,397.31 in cash with a 20.5% annualized return as of 7/22/11.
I do expect Celsion to continue its run; HEAT enrollment and the 190th PFS event should occur within 3 weeks now. I intend (in the Port24) to start taking some profits around the $5 mark - I'd bought lots around $2.64 and $2.31.
Regards,
Trond
# / Ticker / (calls sold)
1500 ARQL (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2600 CLDX (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
300 DNDN (0)
1100 EXEL (0)
2000 MITI (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
2500 PIP (0)
1600 SGMO (0)
Monday, July 18, 2011
Celsion HEATing up
Please excuse the title - I promise that is the last time I'll use that atrocious pun.
I spoke to Jeff Church from Celsion Friday morning. Mr Church was the CFO until last Tuesday, when he was promoted to Senior Vice President, Strategy and Investor Relations. I've copied some notes of that chat at the end. Much is not exactly "new" information, but this is the first I've seen of the specific number of patients needed to be considered "registrational" for various Asian countries. My thanks to Mr. Church for taking the time to speak with me!
Please understand that these are MY words, even the text in quotes are my recollection of his words as I took extremely abbreviated notes as we were talking.
Last week the DMC also did a review of the 535 patients already randomized in the HEAT trial and unanimously recommended the trial continue. This gives extra credence to the notion that the upcoming interim look will have no problem at all with a futility analysis. It's interesting to note that this look was not even "supposed" to happen - they had expected enrollment to be completed by now!
A report called "Biorunup" was released on Thursday that calculated a fair market share price of $5.67 to $7.16 at the interim look. I take pride in saying all the way last winter that I expected $5-7 right before the interim look. I still think that is a pretty fair assumption - although I expect several spikes that may take up to $9 or more for brief periods.
Here's to a good-to-great interim look. I am still holding an obscene amount of Celsion in my real money accounts, as well as my Port24 holdings at around 20% and a similar weighting in my Marketocracy mutual fund. I will begin slimming the holdings at around $5.
Regards,
Trond
----
Celsion notes 7/15/2011
Telephone chat w/ Jeff Church
Congrats on promotion.
Can only speak to cash as have publicly released - $2M at eoQ1, raised $18M since. Should have “enough” through calendar year but will need more before filing. [guidance was for ~$1.3M/mo, so should have used 5.2M through eom July = 14.8M at this point]
Addressed payables from Q1 filing as liabilities, have some room to do payments, should not be regarded as immediately gone from cash. Most are CRO payments. These will not go away after enrollment completes, as when patients progress and are followed for OS, still make payments. But they’ll “be over the hump of the bell curve”.
I suggested a direct stock purchase program, helps existing shareholders get new shares first as well as gives company a steady, though small, source of capital that remains under their control. Pretty much dismissed this.
600 enrolled by end of July, “maybe a week into Aug.” 190 PFS events “maybe another week”.
Reiterated interim results by end of September.
Japan needs 60 to be “registrational” – how many in other Asian countries? China = 200 (both control and drug arm), Korea 90, Taiwan 90. China “almost there”.
CRLM trial, timing? Been “lots of planning”, takes some time, his view is most important piece is getting sign off by the review. They have that. Expects trial to start “in Q3”.
NDA has three modules: preclinical, manufacturing, clinical trials. They can use Dox safety and equivalency data for preclinical. Manufacturing will take huge amount of work, registrational batches for drug and stability, facility inspection, etc.
Interim enough for approval, “Possible, not a lot of probability”.
HIFU trial – excited for different heating modalities, get to hard to treat areas. [imagine trying RFA inside a bone!]
Friday, July 1, 2011
Q2 update
Well, color me annoyed - I spent nearly an hour writing a post last night, only to have the Post feature not work.
Basically, Port24 is doing well, with an annualized 18.24% return, or $157,121.31. I started about 3 and 1/4 years with $100K, and the goal of achieving 24% a year. So while I am clearly quite short of that, the S&P and Nasdaq, respectively, have returned over that same time period 0.2% and 5.9%.
My marketocracy fund is also doing well: Interestingly it is almost the same return at 18.37% annualized, only over 4 1/4 years.
There was a lot more fluff, but it looks like you'll be spared that, dear reader.
:-)
Trond
Basically, Port24 is doing well, with an annualized 18.24% return, or $157,121.31. I started about 3 and 1/4 years with $100K, and the goal of achieving 24% a year. So while I am clearly quite short of that, the S&P and Nasdaq, respectively, have returned over that same time period 0.2% and 5.9%.
My marketocracy fund is also doing well: Interestingly it is almost the same return at 18.37% annualized, only over 4 1/4 years.
There was a lot more fluff, but it looks like you'll be spared that, dear reader.
:-)
Trond
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Pharmathene (PIP)
PIP had a great day today, up 26%, to $3.04. This is the stock that I bought yesterday in the Port24 (and in a real money account).
I touched months ago on the topic of having watchlists of stocks, that should be reviewed daily to weekly. Once you have a feel for where the stock price tends to move (and of course, knowledge of the timing of upcoming events), you will get a feel for when a stock is simply insanely priced. It's worth reviewing Benjamin Graham's (and Warren Buffett's) continuing referral to Mr. Market: that silly little guy who shows up every day either manic or depressive, offering stocks for sale at wildly inflated prices because he's so rosy, or at crazily depressed prices because he's glum or convinced the sky is falling. The trick is that YOU DO NOT HAVE TO BUY AT ANY POINT - it is entirely up to you. You can agree with everyone that Apple makes the best listening or tablet devices, but until there is a shock to the stock price and it's offered at something you consider value, you don't have to buy it! Yesterday was simply a time when PIP was being offered at a price that was entirely "glum" Mr. Market.
Recall however that I also sold July $2.50 calls against the position I added yesterday (within the Port24). Although I've technically "lost" paper money on this trade, as opposed to simply buying the shares, I am not too sad. I entered the trade looking only at the one month objective of gaining the 12% (144% annualized!!!) return should PIP be at more than $2.50 on July 15th. I am quite firmly convinced it will, so I am not touching the trade at this point.
Please note there IS something I could (and may well) do at this point. I bought the stock at $2.42 and sold $2.50 calls for $0.30. I could buy back those same calls for $0.80 now, and then sell the stock for $3.04. I would lose $0.50 per share on the options, but gain $0.62 per share on the underlying shares. Of course, you have to factor commissions into the above, so it's not a full 12 cent gain per share... maybe more like ten on average.
That would be a 4% gain, obviously not nearly as nice as the 12% I stand to gain if left in place. On the other hand, this is a 4% gain in ONE DAY. That annualizes to 1,440%! Such comparisons are silly when you talk about a one or two day gain, but then I have that cash on hand for future trades, instead of locking it up for a month. Since this trade is about 8% of the entire Port, there is some interest in closing it out quickly if I can do so at a better than already-planned return.
Stay tuned!
Regards,
Trond
I touched months ago on the topic of having watchlists of stocks, that should be reviewed daily to weekly. Once you have a feel for where the stock price tends to move (and of course, knowledge of the timing of upcoming events), you will get a feel for when a stock is simply insanely priced. It's worth reviewing Benjamin Graham's (and Warren Buffett's) continuing referral to Mr. Market: that silly little guy who shows up every day either manic or depressive, offering stocks for sale at wildly inflated prices because he's so rosy, or at crazily depressed prices because he's glum or convinced the sky is falling. The trick is that YOU DO NOT HAVE TO BUY AT ANY POINT - it is entirely up to you. You can agree with everyone that Apple makes the best listening or tablet devices, but until there is a shock to the stock price and it's offered at something you consider value, you don't have to buy it! Yesterday was simply a time when PIP was being offered at a price that was entirely "glum" Mr. Market.
Recall however that I also sold July $2.50 calls against the position I added yesterday (within the Port24). Although I've technically "lost" paper money on this trade, as opposed to simply buying the shares, I am not too sad. I entered the trade looking only at the one month objective of gaining the 12% (144% annualized!!!) return should PIP be at more than $2.50 on July 15th. I am quite firmly convinced it will, so I am not touching the trade at this point.
Please note there IS something I could (and may well) do at this point. I bought the stock at $2.42 and sold $2.50 calls for $0.30. I could buy back those same calls for $0.80 now, and then sell the stock for $3.04. I would lose $0.50 per share on the options, but gain $0.62 per share on the underlying shares. Of course, you have to factor commissions into the above, so it's not a full 12 cent gain per share... maybe more like ten on average.
That would be a 4% gain, obviously not nearly as nice as the 12% I stand to gain if left in place. On the other hand, this is a 4% gain in ONE DAY. That annualizes to 1,440%! Such comparisons are silly when you talk about a one or two day gain, but then I have that cash on hand for future trades, instead of locking it up for a month. Since this trade is about 8% of the entire Port, there is some interest in closing it out quickly if I can do so at a better than already-planned return.
Stay tuned!
Regards,
Trond
Monday, June 20, 2011
Options expiration fallout
The composition of the Port has changed dramatically from just a couple weeks ago.
We bid adieu to Seattle Genetics (SGEN) last Friday, as I had sold $17.50 calls and it closed at $19.50. Since I bought it 3 1/2 months ago at $15, and sold $1.25 worth of premium I can't complain too much with the 21% total return.
This morning I took advantage of the cash on hand, buying an old friend and a special situation.
The Port now owns Dendreon (DNDN) again, at $38.16. I did, however, sell July $40 calls, expecting a lift from the CMS coverage and the upcoming Seal Beach plant approval.
I also bought a second load of Pharmathene (PIP) (6,000 shares at $2.42) and sold 60 July calls at $2.50. Those calls, however, had a premium of $0.30!! That is a 12% premium for one month... and too much for me to resist in the Port.
Notably, I also bought some PIP for myself in my real money account this morning. I did not sell calls against these.
I'm down to $4,400 cash in the Port, so until I either sell more calls or liquidate some stock, I'll be holding the following:
Shares .. Ticker.. (calls sold)
1500 ARQL (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2600 CLDX (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
300 DNDN (3)
1100 EXEL (0)
2000 MITI (0)
2000 NBIX (20)
7000 NNVC (0)
2500 PIP (0)
6000 PIP (60)
1600 SGMO (0)
Regards,
Trond
We bid adieu to Seattle Genetics (SGEN) last Friday, as I had sold $17.50 calls and it closed at $19.50. Since I bought it 3 1/2 months ago at $15, and sold $1.25 worth of premium I can't complain too much with the 21% total return.
This morning I took advantage of the cash on hand, buying an old friend and a special situation.
The Port now owns Dendreon (DNDN) again, at $38.16. I did, however, sell July $40 calls, expecting a lift from the CMS coverage and the upcoming Seal Beach plant approval.
I also bought a second load of Pharmathene (PIP) (6,000 shares at $2.42) and sold 60 July calls at $2.50. Those calls, however, had a premium of $0.30!! That is a 12% premium for one month... and too much for me to resist in the Port.
Notably, I also bought some PIP for myself in my real money account this morning. I did not sell calls against these.
I'm down to $4,400 cash in the Port, so until I either sell more calls or liquidate some stock, I'll be holding the following:
Shares .. Ticker.. (calls sold)
1500 ARQL (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2600 CLDX (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
300 DNDN (3)
1100 EXEL (0)
2000 MITI (0)
2000 NBIX (20)
7000 NNVC (0)
2500 PIP (0)
6000 PIP (60)
1600 SGMO (0)
Regards,
Trond
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
PZG sell
Paramount Gold & Silver had a modestly good PR today and I've decided to sell the 3,600 shares the Port24 holds (at $3.71). That gives me an 18% return over the five months I have held.
I still like PZG but will look to re-enter somewhat lower ... the next news is not expected for a few months and I suspect it will trail down again.
Others I'm considering for inclusion at today's prices are more SGMO or PIP. VHC and ZIOP are also contenders.
Regards,
Trond
I still like PZG but will look to re-enter somewhat lower ... the next news is not expected for a few months and I suspect it will trail down again.
Others I'm considering for inclusion at today's prices are more SGMO or PIP. VHC and ZIOP are also contenders.
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Managing money and Port24 update
First, let's get the Port out of the way: I sold calls against the EXEL position today; 11 Jul $10s for $0.65 per share. Cash is up to $1,096.58, and the overall value to $151,963.58, a 16.9% annualized return, beating the S&P and Nasdaq by 18 and 12% respectively.
The big news in my personal life is that I will be hanging out a shingle to manage money and do financial planning. Getting going will take a couple months in between studying and passing the Series 65 exam, getting registered with the State of California as a Registered Investment Adviser, and starting an LLC.
Besides looking at people's finances and finding ways to improve their moeny situation, I will be offering a couple "funds" - a growth and a growth/income option. More information will be forthcoming! I think I will be using the construction of this business as a blog series, so if interested in the creation of an entrepreneur, please stay tuned! My blog portfolio will stay a fixture, but I'll also use quite a bit of the analysis I'll be using on my company funds to do an even better job managing the Port.
I would ask the readers to please take a moment to hit the 'Post a Comment" link and let me know what it would take to make you call a financial planner, and utilize their services. Thanks!
Regards,
Trond
The big news in my personal life is that I will be hanging out a shingle to manage money and do financial planning. Getting going will take a couple months in between studying and passing the Series 65 exam, getting registered with the State of California as a Registered Investment Adviser, and starting an LLC.
Besides looking at people's finances and finding ways to improve their moeny situation, I will be offering a couple "funds" - a growth and a growth/income option. More information will be forthcoming! I think I will be using the construction of this business as a blog series, so if interested in the creation of an entrepreneur, please stay tuned! My blog portfolio will stay a fixture, but I'll also use quite a bit of the analysis I'll be using on my company funds to do an even better job managing the Port.
I would ask the readers to please take a moment to hit the 'Post a Comment" link and let me know what it would take to make you call a financial planner, and utilize their services. Thanks!
Regards,
Trond
Monday, June 6, 2011
Exelixis
I bought 1100 shares of Exelixis (EXEL) at $8.78 in the Port today. They presented great data at ASCO and Mr. Market seems to have overstated the side effect dangers.
I will have more to say later on, but I wanted to post disclosure ASAP.
Regards,
Trond
I will have more to say later on, but I wanted to post disclosure ASAP.
Regards,
Trond
Friday, June 3, 2011
Neurocrine calls
NBIX had a nice run this week and it is time to sell some $8 calls. The June's do not have enough premium to make them worthwhile, so we'll be selling the July $8s for $0.25 a share. With today's price $7.76 (and the purchase price in January at $7.30 and a total of $0.70 of option premium gained now) we'll have made about 14% in six months (assuming a close in July above $7.50). If exercised, we'll have a 19% gain.
I still have $10K in cash to buy something else; I would say right now Celsion would be a buy if I did not already have a stake. Other possibilities are Sangamo, ArQule, and Micromet - but I already have positions in those too. I will sit on my hands until something extraordinary comes along.
Regards,
Trond
I still have $10K in cash to buy something else; I would say right now Celsion would be a buy if I did not already have a stake. Other possibilities are Sangamo, ArQule, and Micromet - but I already have positions in those too. I will sit on my hands until something extraordinary comes along.
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Port 24 update
With the cash from the recent exercise of ONTY burning a hole in my pocket, I had some decisions to make.
NBIX is trading at a good price for a buy, but I already have nearly 10% there.
I was tempted by some more DNDN but I think this summer will see a better buying opportunity.
CLSN is a recurring temptation too, but I have the largest position there (and in my real money accounts) so I'm avoiding that too.
LXRX was also a possibility, but they are not optionable, and I also own NNVC in the Port that does not trade options.
So I decided to buy 2500 PIP and 1500 ARQL.
PIP is embroiled in a lawsuit against SIGA for licensing rights to a drug. From my readings it appears they have a very reasonable chance to win here - at $3.70 this is going to either be cut by a quarter or nearly triple. Much riskier than I typically would want for the Port, but I like the odds and also own this in real money accounts. You can research recent articles by James Altucher about this stock.
This is the second appearance by ARQL in the Port24. In September of 2008 we bought it at $2.91 and then eight months later said adieu to it at $4.43. Now I'm buying again at 6.70, in the expectation of a decent runup through the fall for trial results next year.
Surprisingly, I am not selling any calls right now. The premiums just are not there - we actually are wanting some shakeups in the market - volatility will move the premiums up.
Still have $9,599.35 in cash, and the positions listed below. I've dropped to a 17.5% annualized return, but at least against a negative 0.6% comparable to the S&P and a 5.6% against the Nasdaq.
2600 CLDX (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2000 NBIX (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
1500 ARQL (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
2500 PIP (0)
1600 SGMO (0)
NBIX is trading at a good price for a buy, but I already have nearly 10% there.
I was tempted by some more DNDN but I think this summer will see a better buying opportunity.
CLSN is a recurring temptation too, but I have the largest position there (and in my real money accounts) so I'm avoiding that too.
LXRX was also a possibility, but they are not optionable, and I also own NNVC in the Port that does not trade options.
So I decided to buy 2500 PIP and 1500 ARQL.
PIP is embroiled in a lawsuit against SIGA for licensing rights to a drug. From my readings it appears they have a very reasonable chance to win here - at $3.70 this is going to either be cut by a quarter or nearly triple. Much riskier than I typically would want for the Port, but I like the odds and also own this in real money accounts. You can research recent articles by James Altucher about this stock.
This is the second appearance by ARQL in the Port24. In September of 2008 we bought it at $2.91 and then eight months later said adieu to it at $4.43. Now I'm buying again at 6.70, in the expectation of a decent runup through the fall for trial results next year.
Surprisingly, I am not selling any calls right now. The premiums just are not there - we actually are wanting some shakeups in the market - volatility will move the premiums up.
Still have $9,599.35 in cash, and the positions listed below. I've dropped to a 17.5% annualized return, but at least against a negative 0.6% comparable to the S&P and a 5.6% against the Nasdaq.
2600 CLDX (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2000 NBIX (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
1500 ARQL (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
2500 PIP (0)
1600 SGMO (0)
Sunday, May 22, 2011
May options expiration
There were certainly some surprises this last month in the Port24. I had sold covered calls against CLDX, ONTY, NBIX, DCTH, and MITI.
All expired harmlessly except for ONTY - it has been rising sharply and were exercised a good 25% above my $4 strike. It hurts to lose the extra amount I might have made, except for two things:
1) would I have actually sold at this price, or would I have sold earlier, or waited and had it go down again?
2) I bought these about a year ago with an average price of $3.46, and sold $0.70 cents of premium along the way... so my net return here has been around 35%.
CLDX just did a secondary offering which knocked it down from exercisable range to the present price. I expect it to be nudging $4 again within a couple months.
NBIX has dropped recently but with Phase 3 trials starting late summer, it should be climbing nicely over the next few months.
Celsion (CLSN) enrollment in the HEAT trial continues to be something I look forward to, over the next two months. They should have hit the 190th PFS event easily by this time and so we'll get to know the results of an interim calculation by the end of Q3 at the latest.
The Port has an annualized return of 17.1% with just over three years. That compares nicely to the S&P being flat over the same period and the Nasdaq gain of 7%.
With ONTY being exercised, I have $28,913.35 in cash and the following holdings:
Shares (calls sold)
2600 CLDX (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2000 NBIX (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
1600 SGMO (0)
All expired harmlessly except for ONTY - it has been rising sharply and were exercised a good 25% above my $4 strike. It hurts to lose the extra amount I might have made, except for two things:
1) would I have actually sold at this price, or would I have sold earlier, or waited and had it go down again?
2) I bought these about a year ago with an average price of $3.46, and sold $0.70 cents of premium along the way... so my net return here has been around 35%.
CLDX just did a secondary offering which knocked it down from exercisable range to the present price. I expect it to be nudging $4 again within a couple months.
NBIX has dropped recently but with Phase 3 trials starting late summer, it should be climbing nicely over the next few months.
Celsion (CLSN) enrollment in the HEAT trial continues to be something I look forward to, over the next two months. They should have hit the 190th PFS event easily by this time and so we'll get to know the results of an interim calculation by the end of Q3 at the latest.
The Port has an annualized return of 17.1% with just over three years. That compares nicely to the S&P being flat over the same period and the Nasdaq gain of 7%.
With ONTY being exercised, I have $28,913.35 in cash and the following holdings:
Shares (calls sold)
2600 CLDX (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2000 NBIX (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
1600 SGMO (0)
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
CLSN news, VHC, and Port24 add (SGMO)
I bought 1600 SGMO for the Port at $6.14 this morning. No calls sold yet... this is the second time Sangamo has appeared in the Port24!
Celsion had their conference call for Q1 last Friday. The primary news is that they are about 37 patients away from full enrollment in the HEAT trial. That should be accomplished by mid July so now we have a pretty much fixed timeframe. I expect a runup to occur anywhere from a few days to a month; unfortunately this may coincide with a general market slump and so the effect may be slightly muted. Nevertheless, this is my best opportunity seen in the next couple months.
While I normally look at biotech, I have to mention VirnetX (VHC). I've held it in my real money accounts since $6.50 last June and it is now $23. While of course I wish I'd highlighted it here earlier, I am more confident in it now; while near term it may certainly go lower (high teens, perhaps?) if you hold through the end of the year I think we may see the $30s or $40s. I may explore this further in a future post, but there is some great info out there on the InvestorVillage.com website for VHC.
Regards,
Trond
Celsion had their conference call for Q1 last Friday. The primary news is that they are about 37 patients away from full enrollment in the HEAT trial. That should be accomplished by mid July so now we have a pretty much fixed timeframe. I expect a runup to occur anywhere from a few days to a month; unfortunately this may coincide with a general market slump and so the effect may be slightly muted. Nevertheless, this is my best opportunity seen in the next couple months.
While I normally look at biotech, I have to mention VirnetX (VHC). I've held it in my real money accounts since $6.50 last June and it is now $23. While of course I wish I'd highlighted it here earlier, I am more confident in it now; while near term it may certainly go lower (high teens, perhaps?) if you hold through the end of the year I think we may see the $30s or $40s. I may explore this further in a future post, but there is some great info out there on the InvestorVillage.com website for VHC.
Regards,
Trond
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Money Show - Las Vegas
Vegas, baby! The Money Show is hitting Vegas next week, and I'll be there. While mostly an exhibition for trading systems and newsletter writers, there are also lots of seminars that are worthwhile attending.
Should be fun, and educational.
Regards,
Trond
Should be fun, and educational.
Regards,
Trond
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Celsion and Micromet
Celsion has had a great week or so. From my 4/20 post at $2.30 advising that it was close to "fish-or-cut-bait" time, we hit $3.50 and are trading around $3.10 today.
I sold 20 May11 $7.50 MITI calls today in the Port24 - only for $0.10 each but that is 1.4% return for two-and-a-half weeks. I have quite a few calls expiring in May so the composition of the Port could well change dramatically within a month or so.
Regards,
Trond
I sold 20 May11 $7.50 MITI calls today in the Port24 - only for $0.10 each but that is 1.4% return for two-and-a-half weeks. I have quite a few calls expiring in May so the composition of the Port could well change dramatically within a month or so.
Regards,
Trond
Friday, April 22, 2011
Omaha bound!
In one week, I'll be in Omaha. The "Woodstock of Capitalism", Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting, is next Saturday and I'll be attending.
This has been on my "bucket list" of things to do. I can't wait for next week - Warren Buffett, here I come!
Regards,
Trond
This has been on my "bucket list" of things to do. I can't wait for next week - Warren Buffett, here I come!
Regards,
Trond
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Celsion (CLSN)
It has been a long time coming, but Celsion should be taking the big step forward within the next couple weeks. I have been screaming from the rooftop for weeks now that if you want a position, you need to fish or cut bait pretty quickly.
Presently around $2.30, by the end of June I am forecasting a price in the $5s or $6s. As soon as they complete enrollment in the HEAT trial, several cool things occur.
First, and most importantly, HEAT then gets a "shot on goal" - an interim calculation of how the trial is going. While interim looks typically are very low likelihood of showing statistical significance (and thereby stopping the trial while they apply for approval) from various simulations I believe we may have as high as 25-30% chance of such happening! But even if this does not occur, the final calculation will then be 8-12 months away - locked into a for-real timeline for final results. Funds and institutions tend to shy away from companies depending on interim calcs, but with a less-than-one-year deadline they would be more willing to invest.
Secondly, once HEAT is enrolled, they will immediately start enrollment in the next trial. Combined with the joint venture with Royal Phillips (HIFU guided Thermodox) they will then have three trials up and running in 2011.
Companies with a trial under an SPA, in a huge, unmet medical need like later stage liver cancer, nearing an interim calc should be trading around a $150M to 450M market cap. With Celsion currently listed as around $33M market cap, we'll be looking at a 3x to 10x increase in the few months leading up to full enrollment in HEAT.
Finally, once Japan's PMDA (FDA-equivalent) agrees to allow enrollment to restart in Japan, a couple more events occur. (enrollment was halted at a pre-agreed 18 patients for an extensive safety review - which is not yet complete)
Obviously, having Japan involved in enrollment again gets us to enrollment of 600 more quickly.
Forgotten by some is the fact that our Japanese partner Yakult pays us $2M at this milestone.
While holding through the interim calculation certainly gives the chance for a 20 bagger or more, an investmnet now, holding only into the near-certain runup into the summer should repay us with a double or more.
Regards,
Trond
Presently around $2.30, by the end of June I am forecasting a price in the $5s or $6s. As soon as they complete enrollment in the HEAT trial, several cool things occur.
First, and most importantly, HEAT then gets a "shot on goal" - an interim calculation of how the trial is going. While interim looks typically are very low likelihood of showing statistical significance (and thereby stopping the trial while they apply for approval) from various simulations I believe we may have as high as 25-30% chance of such happening! But even if this does not occur, the final calculation will then be 8-12 months away - locked into a for-real timeline for final results. Funds and institutions tend to shy away from companies depending on interim calcs, but with a less-than-one-year deadline they would be more willing to invest.
Secondly, once HEAT is enrolled, they will immediately start enrollment in the next trial. Combined with the joint venture with Royal Phillips (HIFU guided Thermodox) they will then have three trials up and running in 2011.
Companies with a trial under an SPA, in a huge, unmet medical need like later stage liver cancer, nearing an interim calc should be trading around a $150M to 450M market cap. With Celsion currently listed as around $33M market cap, we'll be looking at a 3x to 10x increase in the few months leading up to full enrollment in HEAT.
Finally, once Japan's PMDA (FDA-equivalent) agrees to allow enrollment to restart in Japan, a couple more events occur. (enrollment was halted at a pre-agreed 18 patients for an extensive safety review - which is not yet complete)
Obviously, having Japan involved in enrollment again gets us to enrollment of 600 more quickly.
Forgotten by some is the fact that our Japanese partner Yakult pays us $2M at this milestone.
While holding through the interim calculation certainly gives the chance for a 20 bagger or more, an investmnet now, holding only into the near-certain runup into the summer should repay us with a double or more.
Regards,
Trond
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Buying BTX
Another buy in the Port - 1200 BTX (Biotime) @$7.31. I am not selling calls right away.
Cash: $10,593.85
Position (calls against)
2600 CLDX (26)
1200 BTX (0)
2000 NBIX (20)
7000 NNVC (0)
7000 ONTY (70)
1600 DCTH (16)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
Regards,
Trond
Cash: $10,593.85
Position (calls against)
2600 CLDX (26)
1200 BTX (0)
2000 NBIX (20)
7000 NNVC (0)
7000 ONTY (70)
1600 DCTH (16)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
Regards,
Trond
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Port 24 update
April options expiration came Friday and for the first time in three years my Port24 is without some Dendreon.
DNDN had a great run in the last month - moving from $32 to $42 - and my gamble that it wouldn't break $40 was a bad one. I will probably hold on to the cash for a few days to assess what I want to do. I really am not comfortable with the overall market but there are always places to put money to work.
PZG had a bad week - the first resource report came out and I feel was badly prepared-for by the company. I still look forward to a very good year for Paramount but it may be a couple months of sitting and waiting.
The Port's return is about 18% annualized, as of 4/15. In one month, it turns 3 years old! So I am lagging my desired return of 24% a year quite badly - by 6%! In my defense, for newer readers, I have made two stupid mistakes: 1) with Elan in not taking enormous profits when I could have, and 2) in neglecting the Port for about 9 of the 35 months I've been running it. Those nine months of "lost" covered call returns very well could have made up that 6%.
Even with the mistakes, I will concede that 18% is pretty good. And better, in comparison to the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq (QQQQ), I am handily beating the market in the same period. The SPY has returned -0.6% in the 35 month period while the QQQQ's are at 5.7% annualized. So I'm still beating the better of the two by 12.4% per year. That is respectable.
Cash $19,372.85 Position (calls against)
2600 CLDX (26)
2000 NBIX (20)
7000 NNVC (0)
7000 ONTY (70)
1600 DCTH (16)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
Regards,
Trond
DNDN had a great run in the last month - moving from $32 to $42 - and my gamble that it wouldn't break $40 was a bad one. I will probably hold on to the cash for a few days to assess what I want to do. I really am not comfortable with the overall market but there are always places to put money to work.
PZG had a bad week - the first resource report came out and I feel was badly prepared-for by the company. I still look forward to a very good year for Paramount but it may be a couple months of sitting and waiting.
The Port's return is about 18% annualized, as of 4/15. In one month, it turns 3 years old! So I am lagging my desired return of 24% a year quite badly - by 6%! In my defense, for newer readers, I have made two stupid mistakes: 1) with Elan in not taking enormous profits when I could have, and 2) in neglecting the Port for about 9 of the 35 months I've been running it. Those nine months of "lost" covered call returns very well could have made up that 6%.
Even with the mistakes, I will concede that 18% is pretty good. And better, in comparison to the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq (QQQQ), I am handily beating the market in the same period. The SPY has returned -0.6% in the 35 month period while the QQQQ's are at 5.7% annualized. So I'm still beating the better of the two by 12.4% per year. That is respectable.
Cash $19,372.85 Position (calls against)
2600 CLDX (26)
2000 NBIX (20)
7000 NNVC (0)
7000 ONTY (70)
1600 DCTH (16)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, April 7, 2011
More covered calls & Port24 update
Seeing as how option expiration is next week, I decided to get some premium this morning. DNDN Apr $40s for $0.38, DCTH May $9s for $0.50, and SGEN Jun $17.50 for $0.85. Nanoviricides (NNVC) is having a good week, up the $1.50s on more FluCide news. I actually sold a little in my real money portfolios, as I try to trade this one more actively than I sometimes do (this is in an IRA so I don't have to worry about taxes). If you have a 2 to 5 year holding time, this is still not a bad time to buy but I suspect it will be 10 to 20 cents lower in a month or two. The Port24 is back over 20% annualized returns... Dendreon's return to the high $30s as well as Nanoviricide's pop contributed. Celsion has been lagging but I expect within three months it will be the star of the show. I am loaded in CLSN in my real money accounts as well. Cash = $3,390.35 2600 CLDX (26) 400 DNDN (4) 2000 NBIX (20) 7000 NNVC (0) 7000 ONTY (70) 1600 DCTH (16) 3600 PZG (0) 9000 CLSN (0) 2000 MITI (0) 800 SGEN (8) Regards, Trond
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Another covered call sale
On Friday I sold 20 NBIX calls - the May $8s - for $0.25 in the Port. That brings us up to a 16.5% annual return and rapidly closing in on three years of the Port24. I have the holdings listed below. Of them all, the only ones I would consider buys right now are Celsion, Nanoviricides, and Paramount Gold. I would expect PZG to release their first resource report this coming week, and will probably sell out of the Port when that occurs. I have quite a few shares of PZG in my real-money accounts, however, and will only sell modestly there... I think 2011 will be a great year for PZG. Nanoviricides may not have any news for months but then again it may announce something any time. I wouldn't add massively today, but to start a position it's a great time in the $1.20s. Celsion also may not move for a couple months but it really is time to fish or cut bait here. By May or June it will have started its runup, and I expect to have a double from here by the end of June. Regards, Trond Port24 holdings (calls against) 2600 CLDX (26) 400 DNDN (0) 2000 NBIX (20) 7000 NNVC (0) 7000 ONTY (70) 1600 DCTH (0) 3600 PZG () 9000 CLSN (0) 2000 MITI (0) 800 SGEN (0) $1,814.37 cash
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Portfolio strategies and March options expiration
Investing for a blog is slightly different than investing in your own real money portfolio. I try to keep things as true as possible to what actually happens -- commissions, fees, and whatever the bid/ask happens to be.
One difference is the bid/ask - the amount you can sell or buy a stock or option for. Let's look at Dendreon - on a day where the price is $32.79, that might entail a bid/ask of $32.79/32.80. You can sell it for 32.79 but have to buy it at 32.80. In a real world portfolio, you can enter a limit buy at $32.75 - if during the day the ask price falls to $32.75, the order fills and you've bought at a better price. You might not, however, get filled at all! I almost always enter limit orders so as to "game" a few cents on my entry and exit price. I do not have such a luxury in the Port24, since I wouldn't know if I ever would have gotten filled or not! And the volume comes into play also... on microcaps such as Celsion that may only trade 50,000 shares a day, a 4,000 buy can drive the ask price up by a few cents.
A couple cents here or there, even on a thousand shares, really is not a big deal - $10 or $20. Options, however, present a wholly different challenge. The bid/ask spread tends to be wider on low price or low volume stocks, and can be as large as 30 to 40 cents difference. A limit order here is MUCH more necessary and "gaming" the order is important. If the bid/ask is $0.25/0.45, a sell entered for $0.35 -- maybe even $0.40 -- might well be filled. You can easily gain an extra $20, 30, or 40 on a trade simply by keeping that in mind. On a $5,000 buy in for the stock, where you are expecting a 2% return on your covered call, an extra $25 raises your return percentage-wise by another half percent. Half a percent over 12 months is an extra 6% a year! Always enter limit orders on options!!
Another difference in the way a real vs. fake portfolio can be managed is the psychological factor. I have staked myself to a 24% return in the Port24 (something I am far short of at the moment) and being long Celsion for so long (heck, even Dendreon over the last year!) has hurt my performance when measured over an individual month or series of months. I refuse to sell calls for the most part because there is the chance for a really good movement in the share price coming up and I want to capture that. However, I have opportunity cost in the meantime of the covered call premiums foregone. And monthly, I have to report "underperformance" of my 2% a month return. There is always the temptation to do something "wrong" to make the monthly numbers look better! (This, by the way, is very much why I mistrust a lot of companies' quarterly earnings - there are many things they can do to fiddle around with a particular quarter's earnings... a one-time charge here, etc.) All I can do is remember why I am in a particular stock and stay true to it. In the long run, assuming I'm right on Celsion, a 100%+ return in a year looks better than 2% in each of 12 months.
For March's opex in the Port24, both Delcath and Seattle Genetics expired without being called. Delcath, of course, went horribly wrong a few weeks ago with the FDA not even accepting the filing of the NDA. I'm holding here, as European approval is also in the works and should cause a re-runup towards the end of the spring. SGEN could well bounce around a buck or two up or down; I will simply wait for a small bounce up and sell calls again.
One extra note about the Port24 - several weeks ago I announced the intention to "move" the assets to Zecco from Scottrade. Immediately afterwards, Zecco announced a pricing change, adding a few dimes to their stock and option commissions. While it is still cheaper than Scottrade and for a new money account I would certainly recommend Zecco, for this situation where I'd have to pay "transfer" charges I am just going to keep basng my buys and sells for now off Scottrade's commission costs. Having said that, please don't let such costs deter you from doing transfers in real money accounts - many brokerages will compensate you for the transfer charges as an inducement for your business!
Real money wise, I am coming close to being an idiot with Celsion. I have been buying all the way down from the low $3s through the $2.30s. A large part of me wishes I'd only now heard of it and had bought the entire stake here! We should finally see some movement in the next 1-8 weeks... culminating in a really nice runup by June awaiting full enrollment of the HEAT trial, and the interim calculation announcement. While I don't truly expect a successful interim and trial stop, the increased eyeballs and realization of the microscopic float should cause a share price move of several dollars.
Paramount Gold & Silver should be releasing one of their resource reports within weeks. Not knowing exactly what regions will be included makes it hard to predict share price movement, but suffice it to say over the next year I expect a double or more. That makes it worth hlding on, or adding here.
Regards,
Trond
One difference is the bid/ask - the amount you can sell or buy a stock or option for. Let's look at Dendreon - on a day where the price is $32.79, that might entail a bid/ask of $32.79/32.80. You can sell it for 32.79 but have to buy it at 32.80. In a real world portfolio, you can enter a limit buy at $32.75 - if during the day the ask price falls to $32.75, the order fills and you've bought at a better price. You might not, however, get filled at all! I almost always enter limit orders so as to "game" a few cents on my entry and exit price. I do not have such a luxury in the Port24, since I wouldn't know if I ever would have gotten filled or not! And the volume comes into play also... on microcaps such as Celsion that may only trade 50,000 shares a day, a 4,000 buy can drive the ask price up by a few cents.
A couple cents here or there, even on a thousand shares, really is not a big deal - $10 or $20. Options, however, present a wholly different challenge. The bid/ask spread tends to be wider on low price or low volume stocks, and can be as large as 30 to 40 cents difference. A limit order here is MUCH more necessary and "gaming" the order is important. If the bid/ask is $0.25/0.45, a sell entered for $0.35 -- maybe even $0.40 -- might well be filled. You can easily gain an extra $20, 30, or 40 on a trade simply by keeping that in mind. On a $5,000 buy in for the stock, where you are expecting a 2% return on your covered call, an extra $25 raises your return percentage-wise by another half percent. Half a percent over 12 months is an extra 6% a year! Always enter limit orders on options!!
Another difference in the way a real vs. fake portfolio can be managed is the psychological factor. I have staked myself to a 24% return in the Port24 (something I am far short of at the moment) and being long Celsion for so long (heck, even Dendreon over the last year!) has hurt my performance when measured over an individual month or series of months. I refuse to sell calls for the most part because there is the chance for a really good movement in the share price coming up and I want to capture that. However, I have opportunity cost in the meantime of the covered call premiums foregone. And monthly, I have to report "underperformance" of my 2% a month return. There is always the temptation to do something "wrong" to make the monthly numbers look better! (This, by the way, is very much why I mistrust a lot of companies' quarterly earnings - there are many things they can do to fiddle around with a particular quarter's earnings... a one-time charge here, etc.) All I can do is remember why I am in a particular stock and stay true to it. In the long run, assuming I'm right on Celsion, a 100%+ return in a year looks better than 2% in each of 12 months.
For March's opex in the Port24, both Delcath and Seattle Genetics expired without being called. Delcath, of course, went horribly wrong a few weeks ago with the FDA not even accepting the filing of the NDA. I'm holding here, as European approval is also in the works and should cause a re-runup towards the end of the spring. SGEN could well bounce around a buck or two up or down; I will simply wait for a small bounce up and sell calls again.
One extra note about the Port24 - several weeks ago I announced the intention to "move" the assets to Zecco from Scottrade. Immediately afterwards, Zecco announced a pricing change, adding a few dimes to their stock and option commissions. While it is still cheaper than Scottrade and for a new money account I would certainly recommend Zecco, for this situation where I'd have to pay "transfer" charges I am just going to keep basng my buys and sells for now off Scottrade's commission costs. Having said that, please don't let such costs deter you from doing transfers in real money accounts - many brokerages will compensate you for the transfer charges as an inducement for your business!
Real money wise, I am coming close to being an idiot with Celsion. I have been buying all the way down from the low $3s through the $2.30s. A large part of me wishes I'd only now heard of it and had bought the entire stake here! We should finally see some movement in the next 1-8 weeks... culminating in a really nice runup by June awaiting full enrollment of the HEAT trial, and the interim calculation announcement. While I don't truly expect a successful interim and trial stop, the increased eyeballs and realization of the microscopic float should cause a share price move of several dollars.
Paramount Gold & Silver should be releasing one of their resource reports within weeks. Not knowing exactly what regions will be included makes it hard to predict share price movement, but suffice it to say over the next year I expect a double or more. That makes it worth hlding on, or adding here.
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, March 10, 2011
CSLN and DNDN
I bought 4000 more shares of Celsion for the Port24 - this is only a (hopefully) quick trade as I just don't see hanging out sub $2.50 much more than a few more weeks. I also bought it in my real-money accounts this morning!
The real news of the morning was for Dendreon, even though the market is treating it with a yawn. The remaining 36 workstations at their NJ facility were approved by the FDA this morning -- which quadruples the amount of Provenge they can administer. It will be a gardual ramp up, rather than an immediate x4, but within two to four months all that capacity should be utilized.
They guided for $9-10M a month with the existing 12 stations, so we should be looking at $36M a month. later this year. That equates to $432M a year on a forward-looking basis... and does NOT include the additonal 72 workstations in GA and CA later this year. For calendar year 2013, after fully ramping up, they should be at $1.2B of sales.
Regards,
Trond
The real news of the morning was for Dendreon, even though the market is treating it with a yawn. The remaining 36 workstations at their NJ facility were approved by the FDA this morning -- which quadruples the amount of Provenge they can administer. It will be a gardual ramp up, rather than an immediate x4, but within two to four months all that capacity should be utilized.
They guided for $9-10M a month with the existing 12 stations, so we should be looking at $36M a month. later this year. That equates to $432M a year on a forward-looking basis... and does NOT include the additonal 72 workstations in GA and CA later this year. For calendar year 2013, after fully ramping up, they should be at $1.2B of sales.
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Port24 update - SGEN
Cash was freed up by selling CLDA. I am allergic to holding on to cash and have bought 800 Seattle Genetics (SGEN) at $15. I turned around and immediately sold 8 Mar11 $15 calls for $0.40 each. 2.5% return in just over 2 weeks, assuming we hug $15 for awhile.
Regards,
Trond
Regards,
Trond
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
CLDA
Sometimes investing can be very frustrating. CLDA was north of $33, with buyout rumors swirling in the $40s. And then we get the news that they are being acquired at $30, plus up to another $6 cash based on future sales.
Huh???? With the stock at $33+?
Unfortunately the board and insiders own enough of the company that this will probably go through regardless of shareholder discontent. I sold all 600 shares in the Port24 this morning at $30.40. And I can't be too sad as we bought around $17 and made a couple bucks a shares in covered calls as well -- all in less than three months.
DCTH had bad news as well, with the FDA refusing their NDA filing. I will not sell these Port24 shares, since we have Europe coming up as another catalyst in the spring/summer. Too, Delcath will refile the NDA in the fall with the additional information requested. So this is a delay, and probably a buying opportunity overall.
Regards,
Trond
Huh???? With the stock at $33+?
Unfortunately the board and insiders own enough of the company that this will probably go through regardless of shareholder discontent. I sold all 600 shares in the Port24 this morning at $30.40. And I can't be too sad as we bought around $17 and made a couple bucks a shares in covered calls as well -- all in less than three months.
DCTH had bad news as well, with the FDA refusing their NDA filing. I will not sell these Port24 shares, since we have Europe coming up as another catalyst in the spring/summer. Too, Delcath will refile the NDA in the fall with the additional information requested. So this is a delay, and probably a buying opportunity overall.
Regards,
Trond
Monday, February 21, 2011
Port24 update - back to 18% annualized
Last Friday was options expiration day for February. I made a good choice on selling the CLDA calls for $35 instead of $30, as it rocketed at the end of the week to $33.90. Similarly with NBIX, selling the $7.50 Febs was excellent as the stock closed Friday at $7.45.
So while that makes me happy, I'm even happier on seeing that I'm back to a 18.2% annualized return, approaching my third full year of this blog and the Portfolio24. Obviously I'd like to be able to point to a 24%+ return, but I've pointed out in past entries the two major things that have prevented that: A very large position in Elan that I continually refused to sell calls against (and that eventually went bad) and two fairly long periods of time (several months each time!) where I did no trading at all in the Port. I do not intend on repeating either of those mistakes!
Some housekeeping: I will be "transferring" the Port24 from a ficticious Scottrade account to a ficticious Zecco account later this week. Although I like Scottrade, and still have one IRA there, I have moved most of my accounts to Zecco. Although they have a $30/year fee for IRAs, the commisions there are $4.50 for stock and 4.50+ 0.50/contract for options, as opposed to Scottrade's $7 and $7+1.25/ commisions. The exercise/assignment fee is only $4.50 instead of $17. There are no account minimum or inactivity fees. Best of all, for accounts of $25,000 or more (or if you perform 25 trades per month), you get ten free trades a month. With the Port at $150K+, this will kill most commission costs and keep it as real as I can.
I will have to research a little to determine how much it would cost to transfer the actual positions from Scottrade to Zecco and I will hit my cash for that amount. As a reminder, I am keeping this portfolio as close to real life as I can. Before posting any trades, I actually look at the current bid/ask for whatever position I am trading and use those listed for the sale or buy. My real accounts tend to be slightly better on the executions because I can set a limit order and end up a nickel or dime better per option trade. That may not sound like much, but with an average 1,000 share lot covering ten contracts, a nickel difference ends up being $50.
I've been asked about my favorite stocks for 2011 and I have to say that basing anything on a calendar year is pretty silly. That said, I do have some stocks that I am in, and feel will do quite well over the next 3 months to a year time frame.
Celsion CLSN at $2.60 is something I have been buying hand over fist recently. I harbor no illusions that their interim look for summer-ish will halt the trial and allow early submission to the FDA (although it IS a chance), but they should easily run up to $5 or more before the summer in anticipation of the chance.
Neurocrine NBIX at $7.50 may be up and down a couple bucks either way in the next three months but I feel will enter 2012 in the double digits.
Delcath DCTH at $11.30 should hear from the FDA within a week or so, accepting their NDA. That may or may not move the stock, but I am certain that by the end of June they will get approval and be in the high teens, if not more.
Paramount Gold PZG at $3.90 (although not a biotech) is something I have had in my real money port since early 2009 around $1.25. I think they are the real deal, and will be double digits by fall.
Good luck to all. Thanks for reading!
Regards,
Trond
So while that makes me happy, I'm even happier on seeing that I'm back to a 18.2% annualized return, approaching my third full year of this blog and the Portfolio24. Obviously I'd like to be able to point to a 24%+ return, but I've pointed out in past entries the two major things that have prevented that: A very large position in Elan that I continually refused to sell calls against (and that eventually went bad) and two fairly long periods of time (several months each time!) where I did no trading at all in the Port. I do not intend on repeating either of those mistakes!
Some housekeeping: I will be "transferring" the Port24 from a ficticious Scottrade account to a ficticious Zecco account later this week. Although I like Scottrade, and still have one IRA there, I have moved most of my accounts to Zecco. Although they have a $30/year fee for IRAs, the commisions there are $4.50 for stock and 4.50+ 0.50/contract for options, as opposed to Scottrade's $7 and $7+1.25/ commisions. The exercise/assignment fee is only $4.50 instead of $17. There are no account minimum or inactivity fees. Best of all, for accounts of $25,000 or more (or if you perform 25 trades per month), you get ten free trades a month. With the Port at $150K+, this will kill most commission costs and keep it as real as I can.
I will have to research a little to determine how much it would cost to transfer the actual positions from Scottrade to Zecco and I will hit my cash for that amount. As a reminder, I am keeping this portfolio as close to real life as I can. Before posting any trades, I actually look at the current bid/ask for whatever position I am trading and use those listed for the sale or buy. My real accounts tend to be slightly better on the executions because I can set a limit order and end up a nickel or dime better per option trade. That may not sound like much, but with an average 1,000 share lot covering ten contracts, a nickel difference ends up being $50.
I've been asked about my favorite stocks for 2011 and I have to say that basing anything on a calendar year is pretty silly. That said, I do have some stocks that I am in, and feel will do quite well over the next 3 months to a year time frame.
Celsion CLSN at $2.60 is something I have been buying hand over fist recently. I harbor no illusions that their interim look for summer-ish will halt the trial and allow early submission to the FDA (although it IS a chance), but they should easily run up to $5 or more before the summer in anticipation of the chance.
Neurocrine NBIX at $7.50 may be up and down a couple bucks either way in the next three months but I feel will enter 2012 in the double digits.
Delcath DCTH at $11.30 should hear from the FDA within a week or so, accepting their NDA. That may or may not move the stock, but I am certain that by the end of June they will get approval and be in the high teens, if not more.
Paramount Gold PZG at $3.90 (although not a biotech) is something I have had in my real money port since early 2009 around $1.25. I think they are the real deal, and will be double digits by fall.
Good luck to all. Thanks for reading!
Regards,
Trond
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Port 24 update and new buys (Celsion)
Let's attend to the Port24 first... some activity today. I had $28K available and did not want to stall on my recent gains.
CLDA got approval and is at the $30 mark. I chose to keep the shares and sell Feb $35 calls for $1. I also sold Feb $7.50 calls on NBIX for $0.20 - the stock itself is at $7.50 right now.
Finally, I sold ONTY May $4 calls since it will be awhile since we get any news. With the stock at $3.06, it gives a 1% per month "dividend" while still allowing the sale at $4 if we do get any bonus news.
I bought 5000 shares of CLSN and 2000 shares of MITI. I have not yet sold calls since I think each will move upwards short term and allow better premium or better strikes than exist right now.
The Port now stands at $146,634.38, with $4,064.38 in cash and the positions and (calls) shown below-- a 46% overall gain and a 17% annualized gain. This compares, over the same period, to a -0.5% annualized gain in the S&P (SPY) and a 7.1% gain in the Nasdaq (QQQQ).
2600 CLDX (26)
600 CLDA (6)
400 DNDN
2000 NBIX (10)
7000 NNVC
7000 ONTY (70)
1000 DCTH (10)
600 DCTH
3600 PZG
5000 CLSN
2000 MITI
Real money wise, I have been buying CLSN hand over fist. They should have news this week of Japan restarting enrollment in the HEAT trial, after a planned halt and safety review.
Nanoviricides (NNVC) also gets some new cash, as they are involved in a dengue conference next week.
DCTH should get formal acceptance of their NDA very soon. I am holding this in real accounts as well, and will sell shorter term calls once it gets a spike around $12.
Regards,
Trond
CLDA got approval and is at the $30 mark. I chose to keep the shares and sell Feb $35 calls for $1. I also sold Feb $7.50 calls on NBIX for $0.20 - the stock itself is at $7.50 right now.
Finally, I sold ONTY May $4 calls since it will be awhile since we get any news. With the stock at $3.06, it gives a 1% per month "dividend" while still allowing the sale at $4 if we do get any bonus news.
I bought 5000 shares of CLSN and 2000 shares of MITI. I have not yet sold calls since I think each will move upwards short term and allow better premium or better strikes than exist right now.
The Port now stands at $146,634.38, with $4,064.38 in cash and the positions and (calls) shown below-- a 46% overall gain and a 17% annualized gain. This compares, over the same period, to a -0.5% annualized gain in the S&P (SPY) and a 7.1% gain in the Nasdaq (QQQQ).
2600 CLDX (26)
600 CLDA (6)
400 DNDN
2000 NBIX (10)
7000 NNVC
7000 ONTY (70)
1000 DCTH (10)
600 DCTH
3600 PZG
5000 CLSN
2000 MITI
Real money wise, I have been buying CLSN hand over fist. They should have news this week of Japan restarting enrollment in the HEAT trial, after a planned halt and safety review.
Nanoviricides (NNVC) also gets some new cash, as they are involved in a dengue conference next week.
DCTH should get formal acceptance of their NDA very soon. I am holding this in real accounts as well, and will sell shorter term calls once it gets a spike around $12.
Regards,
Trond
Monday, January 24, 2011
CLDA and Port24 update (after options expiration)
Congrats to the CLDA shareholders who stuck through the approval process. Oh wait, the Port was one of those! :-)
I bought back the calls a week or so ago and so am holding the stock long in the Port - from a $15ish close of Friday, we got approval and a pre-market $25 price tag this morning.
Dendreon and Oncothyreon calls expired on me (a good thing - we keep the premium AND the stock) and my Elan and Sangamo were exercised (also a good thing, we got the premium and netted cash out at the strike price).
I now have another $27K to buy with. I'll keep you posted!
Regards,
Trond
I bought back the calls a week or so ago and so am holding the stock long in the Port - from a $15ish close of Friday, we got approval and a pre-market $25 price tag this morning.
Dendreon and Oncothyreon calls expired on me (a good thing - we keep the premium AND the stock) and my Elan and Sangamo were exercised (also a good thing, we got the premium and netted cash out at the strike price).
I now have another $27K to buy with. I'll keep you posted!
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, January 20, 2011
MNKD, Port24, and real money update
MNKD received a CRL yesterday for Afrezza. I was almost all out here, but was truly hoping for and expecting an approval. Fortunately it appears that most of what the FDA is asking for can be provided within the next year or so. The stock price was only knocked down to the $5 in today's trading which I consider fair for the moment. I would expect it to come down some more in the couple months, and if it does go into the $3s or $4s I would be a buyer again.
I bought 3,600 PZG at $3.12 in the Port today; no options offered here but the price is simply too low for what is expected in their resource report sometime in Q1 2011. Hence this is only a trade, with a defined time limit of about 3 months.
In my real money accounts, I bought PZG and CLSN today. CLSN at $2.78 is simply irresistable, and is now my largest holding.
Regards,
Trond
I bought 3,600 PZG at $3.12 in the Port today; no options offered here but the price is simply too low for what is expected in their resource report sometime in Q1 2011. Hence this is only a trade, with a defined time limit of about 3 months.
In my real money accounts, I bought PZG and CLSN today. CLSN at $2.78 is simply irresistable, and is now my largest holding.
Regards,
Trond
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Careful does it! And a Port24 update
I am hearing from all the various economists, bloggers, and folks I respect (market-wise) that we are due for a correction. I asked a month or so ago if you had your chair ready for when the music stops. I think you need to ask yourself that question again.
I put on one of my volatility plays last week: took TZA (bearish x3 small cap ETF, was at $15.04 at the time) and bought an equal number of Apr11 $15 puts and calls. I don't care what direction we go, as long as we move at least 4% in either direction in the base (~11-12% in the x3).
Though honestly, if we move up (down in the ETF, since this is bearish) I will probably sell the puts if they near a double. I'd hold on to the calls, as they will go up if we do get the correction I fear.
In the Port 24, I bought 2,600 Celldex (CLDX) this morning at $3.88 and sold the May $4 calls for $0.55 against the whole position. CLDX could well continue falling here, but May gives me a while to be right.
With this morning's prices, I'm currently at a 14.2 annualized return and still have $14,160 in cash to initiate another position.
In real money accounts, I'm very interested in PZG, DCTH and NBIX here.
Regards,
Trond
I put on one of my volatility plays last week: took TZA (bearish x3 small cap ETF, was at $15.04 at the time) and bought an equal number of Apr11 $15 puts and calls. I don't care what direction we go, as long as we move at least 4% in either direction in the base (~11-12% in the x3).
Though honestly, if we move up (down in the ETF, since this is bearish) I will probably sell the puts if they near a double. I'd hold on to the calls, as they will go up if we do get the correction I fear.
In the Port 24, I bought 2,600 Celldex (CLDX) this morning at $3.88 and sold the May $4 calls for $0.55 against the whole position. CLDX could well continue falling here, but May gives me a while to be right.
With this morning's prices, I'm currently at a 14.2 annualized return and still have $14,160 in cash to initiate another position.
In real money accounts, I'm very interested in PZG, DCTH and NBIX here.
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Port update - LXRX successful trial results
I sold all 7,000 shares of LXRX in the port this morning at $1.94. Also divested almost all of my real money shares too. Having bought exactly one month ago at $1.39, this is almost a 50% return.
PR shown below...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Lexicon-Announces-Positive-prnews-4130937110.html?x=0&.v=1
In real money, I am currently interested in DCTH, NBIX, and NNVC.
Regards,
Trond
PR shown below...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Lexicon-Announces-Positive-prnews-4130937110.html?x=0&.v=1
In real money, I am currently interested in DCTH, NBIX, and NNVC.
Regards,
Trond
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Port24 update
I bought 2,000 NBIX just now for the Port, at $7.30. I am going to wait to sell calls here until it bounces back somewhat. The Feb $7.50s were attractive at $0.55, equivalent to a 7.5% return for 1.5 months, but I think I can do better.
I also bought back the CLDA calls to close, since the stock has dropped. As we approach the 1/22/11 PDUFA date I expect the price to rise back to where I bought it.
Port is now 11.1% annualized return, with $9,292 in cash still and the stocks (calls) shown below.
600 CLDA (0)
400 DNDN (4)
1600 ELN (16)
7000 LXRX (0)
2000 NBIX (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
7000 ONTY (70)
2500 SGMO (25)
1600 DCTH (10)
I also bought back the CLDA calls to close, since the stock has dropped. As we approach the 1/22/11 PDUFA date I expect the price to rise back to where I bought it.
Port is now 11.1% annualized return, with $9,292 in cash still and the stocks (calls) shown below.
600 CLDA (0)
400 DNDN (4)
1600 ELN (16)
7000 LXRX (0)
2000 NBIX (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
7000 ONTY (70)
2500 SGMO (25)
1600 DCTH (10)
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