Monday, February 21, 2011

Port24 update - back to 18% annualized

Last Friday was options expiration day for February. I made a good choice on selling the CLDA calls for $35 instead of $30, as it rocketed at the end of the week to $33.90. Similarly with NBIX, selling the $7.50 Febs was excellent as the stock closed Friday at $7.45.

So while that makes me happy, I'm even happier on seeing that I'm back to a 18.2% annualized return, approaching my third full year of this blog and the Portfolio24. Obviously I'd like to be able to point to a 24%+ return, but I've pointed out in past entries the two major things that have prevented that: A very large position in Elan that I continually refused to sell calls against (and that eventually went bad) and two fairly long periods of time (several months each time!) where I did no trading at all in the Port. I do not intend on repeating either of those mistakes!

Some housekeeping: I will be "transferring" the Port24 from a ficticious Scottrade account to a ficticious Zecco account later this week. Although I like Scottrade, and still have one IRA there, I have moved most of my accounts to Zecco. Although they have a $30/year fee for IRAs, the commisions there are $4.50 for stock and 4.50+ 0.50/contract for options, as opposed to Scottrade's $7 and $7+1.25/ commisions. The exercise/assignment fee is only $4.50 instead of $17. There are no account minimum or inactivity fees. Best of all, for accounts of $25,000 or more (or if you perform 25 trades per month), you get ten free trades a month. With the Port at $150K+, this will kill most commission costs and keep it as real as I can.

I will have to research a little to determine how much it would cost to transfer the actual positions from Scottrade to Zecco and I will hit my cash for that amount. As a reminder, I am keeping this portfolio as close to real life as I can. Before posting any trades, I actually look at the current bid/ask for whatever position I am trading and use those listed for the sale or buy. My real accounts tend to be slightly better on the executions because I can set a limit order and end up a nickel or dime better per option trade. That may not sound like much, but with an average 1,000 share lot covering ten contracts, a nickel difference ends up being $50.

I've been asked about my favorite stocks for 2011 and I have to say that basing anything on a calendar year is pretty silly. That said, I do have some stocks that I am in, and feel will do quite well over the next 3 months to a year time frame.

Celsion CLSN at $2.60 is something I have been buying hand over fist recently. I harbor no illusions that their interim look for summer-ish will halt the trial and allow early submission to the FDA (although it IS a chance), but they should easily run up to $5 or more before the summer in anticipation of the chance.

Neurocrine NBIX at $7.50 may be up and down a couple bucks either way in the next three months but I feel will enter 2012 in the double digits.

Delcath DCTH at $11.30 should hear from the FDA within a week or so, accepting their NDA. That may or may not move the stock, but I am certain that by the end of June they will get approval and be in the high teens, if not more.

Paramount Gold PZG at $3.90 (although not a biotech) is something I have had in my real money port since early 2009 around $1.25. I think they are the real deal, and will be double digits by fall.

Good luck to all. Thanks for reading!
Regards,
Trond

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Port 24 update and new buys (Celsion)

Let's attend to the Port24 first... some activity today. I had $28K available and did not want to stall on my recent gains.

CLDA got approval and is at the $30 mark. I chose to keep the shares and sell Feb $35 calls for $1. I also sold Feb $7.50 calls on NBIX for $0.20 - the stock itself is at $7.50 right now.
Finally, I sold ONTY May $4 calls since it will be awhile since we get any news. With the stock at $3.06, it gives a 1% per month "dividend" while still allowing the sale at $4 if we do get any bonus news.

I bought 5000 shares of CLSN and 2000 shares of MITI. I have not yet sold calls since I think each will move upwards short term and allow better premium or better strikes than exist right now.

The Port now stands at $146,634.38, with $4,064.38 in cash and the positions and (calls) shown below-- a 46% overall gain and a 17% annualized gain. This compares, over the same period, to a -0.5% annualized gain in the S&P (SPY) and a 7.1% gain in the Nasdaq (QQQQ).

2600 CLDX (26)
600 CLDA (6)
400 DNDN
2000 NBIX (10)
7000 NNVC
7000 ONTY (70)
1000 DCTH (10)
600 DCTH
3600 PZG
5000 CLSN
2000 MITI

Real money wise, I have been buying CLSN hand over fist. They should have news this week of Japan restarting enrollment in the HEAT trial, after a planned halt and safety review.
Nanoviricides (NNVC) also gets some new cash, as they are involved in a dengue conference next week.
DCTH should get formal acceptance of their NDA very soon. I am holding this in real accounts as well, and will sell shorter term calls once it gets a spike around $12.

Regards,
Trond