Port 24 update

With the cash from the recent exercise of ONTY burning a hole in my pocket, I had some decisions to make.

NBIX is trading at a good price for a buy, but I already have nearly 10% there.
I was tempted by some more DNDN but I think this summer will see a better buying opportunity.
CLSN is a recurring temptation too, but I have the largest position there (and in my real money accounts) so I'm avoiding that too.
LXRX was also a possibility, but they are not optionable, and I also own NNVC in the Port that does not trade options.

So I decided to buy 2500 PIP and 1500 ARQL.

PIP is embroiled in a lawsuit against SIGA for licensing rights to a drug. From my readings it appears they have a very reasonable chance to win here - at $3.70 this is going to either be cut by a quarter or nearly triple. Much riskier than I typically would want for the Port, but I like the odds and also own this in real money accounts. You can research recent articles by James Altucher about this stock.

This is the second appearance by ARQL in the Port24. In September of 2008 we bought it at $2.91 and then eight months later said adieu to it at $4.43. Now I'm buying again at 6.70, in the expectation of a decent runup through the fall for trial results next year.

Surprisingly, I am not selling any calls right now. The premiums just are not there - we actually are wanting some shakeups in the market - volatility will move the premiums up.

Still have $9,599.35 in cash, and the positions listed below. I've dropped to a 17.5% annualized return, but at least against a negative 0.6% comparable to the S&P and a 5.6% against the Nasdaq.

2600 CLDX (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2000 NBIX (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
1500 ARQL (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
2500 PIP (0)
1600 SGMO (0)

May options expiration

There were certainly some surprises this last month in the Port24. I had sold covered calls against CLDX, ONTY, NBIX, DCTH, and MITI.

All expired harmlessly except for ONTY - it has been rising sharply and were exercised a good 25% above my $4 strike. It hurts to lose the extra amount I might have made, except for two things:
1) would I have actually sold at this price, or would I have sold earlier, or waited and had it go down again?
2) I bought these about a year ago with an average price of $3.46, and sold $0.70 cents of premium along the way... so my net return here has been around 35%.

CLDX just did a secondary offering which knocked it down from exercisable range to the present price. I expect it to be nudging $4 again within a couple months.
NBIX has dropped recently but with Phase 3 trials starting late summer, it should be climbing nicely over the next few months.

Celsion (CLSN) enrollment in the HEAT trial continues to be something I look forward to, over the next two months. They should have hit the 190th PFS event easily by this time and so we'll get to know the results of an interim calculation by the end of Q3 at the latest.

The Port has an annualized return of 17.1% with just over three years. That compares nicely to the S&P being flat over the same period and the Nasdaq gain of 7%.

With ONTY being exercised, I have $28,913.35 in cash and the following holdings:

Shares (calls sold)
2600 CLDX (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2000 NBIX (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
1600 SGMO (0)

CLSN news, VHC, and Port24 add (SGMO)

I bought 1600 SGMO for the Port at $6.14 this morning. No calls sold yet... this is the second time Sangamo has appeared in the Port24!

Celsion had their conference call for Q1 last Friday. The primary news is that they are about 37 patients away from full enrollment in the HEAT trial. That should be accomplished by mid July so now we have a pretty much fixed timeframe. I expect a runup to occur anywhere from a few days to a month; unfortunately this may coincide with a general market slump and so the effect may be slightly muted. Nevertheless, this is my best opportunity seen in the next couple months.

While I normally look at biotech, I have to mention VirnetX (VHC). I've held it in my real money accounts since $6.50 last June and it is now $23. While of course I wish I'd highlighted it here earlier, I am more confident in it now; while near term it may certainly go lower (high teens, perhaps?) if you hold through the end of the year I think we may see the $30s or $40s. I may explore this further in a future post, but there is some great info out there on the InvestorVillage.com website for VHC.

Regards,
Trond

Money Show - Las Vegas

Vegas, baby! The Money Show is hitting Vegas next week, and I'll be there. While mostly an exhibition for trading systems and newsletter writers, there are also lots of seminars that are worthwhile attending.

Should be fun, and educational.

Regards,
Trond

Celsion and Micromet

Celsion has had a great week or so. From my 4/20 post at $2.30 advising that it was close to "fish-or-cut-bait" time, we hit $3.50 and are trading around $3.10 today.

I sold 20 May11 $7.50 MITI calls today in the Port24 - only for $0.10 each but that is 1.4% return for two-and-a-half weeks. I have quite a few calls expiring in May so the composition of the Port could well change dramatically within a month or so.

Regards,
Trond