In one week, I'll be in Omaha. The "Woodstock of Capitalism", Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting, is next Saturday and I'll be attending.
This has been on my "bucket list" of things to do. I can't wait for next week - Warren Buffett, here I come!
Regards,
Trond
Friday, April 22, 2011
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Celsion (CLSN)
It has been a long time coming, but Celsion should be taking the big step forward within the next couple weeks. I have been screaming from the rooftop for weeks now that if you want a position, you need to fish or cut bait pretty quickly.
Presently around $2.30, by the end of June I am forecasting a price in the $5s or $6s. As soon as they complete enrollment in the HEAT trial, several cool things occur.
First, and most importantly, HEAT then gets a "shot on goal" - an interim calculation of how the trial is going. While interim looks typically are very low likelihood of showing statistical significance (and thereby stopping the trial while they apply for approval) from various simulations I believe we may have as high as 25-30% chance of such happening! But even if this does not occur, the final calculation will then be 8-12 months away - locked into a for-real timeline for final results. Funds and institutions tend to shy away from companies depending on interim calcs, but with a less-than-one-year deadline they would be more willing to invest.
Secondly, once HEAT is enrolled, they will immediately start enrollment in the next trial. Combined with the joint venture with Royal Phillips (HIFU guided Thermodox) they will then have three trials up and running in 2011.
Companies with a trial under an SPA, in a huge, unmet medical need like later stage liver cancer, nearing an interim calc should be trading around a $150M to 450M market cap. With Celsion currently listed as around $33M market cap, we'll be looking at a 3x to 10x increase in the few months leading up to full enrollment in HEAT.
Finally, once Japan's PMDA (FDA-equivalent) agrees to allow enrollment to restart in Japan, a couple more events occur. (enrollment was halted at a pre-agreed 18 patients for an extensive safety review - which is not yet complete)
Obviously, having Japan involved in enrollment again gets us to enrollment of 600 more quickly.
Forgotten by some is the fact that our Japanese partner Yakult pays us $2M at this milestone.
While holding through the interim calculation certainly gives the chance for a 20 bagger or more, an investmnet now, holding only into the near-certain runup into the summer should repay us with a double or more.
Regards,
Trond
Presently around $2.30, by the end of June I am forecasting a price in the $5s or $6s. As soon as they complete enrollment in the HEAT trial, several cool things occur.
First, and most importantly, HEAT then gets a "shot on goal" - an interim calculation of how the trial is going. While interim looks typically are very low likelihood of showing statistical significance (and thereby stopping the trial while they apply for approval) from various simulations I believe we may have as high as 25-30% chance of such happening! But even if this does not occur, the final calculation will then be 8-12 months away - locked into a for-real timeline for final results. Funds and institutions tend to shy away from companies depending on interim calcs, but with a less-than-one-year deadline they would be more willing to invest.
Secondly, once HEAT is enrolled, they will immediately start enrollment in the next trial. Combined with the joint venture with Royal Phillips (HIFU guided Thermodox) they will then have three trials up and running in 2011.
Companies with a trial under an SPA, in a huge, unmet medical need like later stage liver cancer, nearing an interim calc should be trading around a $150M to 450M market cap. With Celsion currently listed as around $33M market cap, we'll be looking at a 3x to 10x increase in the few months leading up to full enrollment in HEAT.
Finally, once Japan's PMDA (FDA-equivalent) agrees to allow enrollment to restart in Japan, a couple more events occur. (enrollment was halted at a pre-agreed 18 patients for an extensive safety review - which is not yet complete)
Obviously, having Japan involved in enrollment again gets us to enrollment of 600 more quickly.
Forgotten by some is the fact that our Japanese partner Yakult pays us $2M at this milestone.
While holding through the interim calculation certainly gives the chance for a 20 bagger or more, an investmnet now, holding only into the near-certain runup into the summer should repay us with a double or more.
Regards,
Trond
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Buying BTX
Another buy in the Port - 1200 BTX (Biotime) @$7.31. I am not selling calls right away.
Cash: $10,593.85
Position (calls against)
2600 CLDX (26)
1200 BTX (0)
2000 NBIX (20)
7000 NNVC (0)
7000 ONTY (70)
1600 DCTH (16)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
Regards,
Trond
Cash: $10,593.85
Position (calls against)
2600 CLDX (26)
1200 BTX (0)
2000 NBIX (20)
7000 NNVC (0)
7000 ONTY (70)
1600 DCTH (16)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
Regards,
Trond
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Port 24 update
April options expiration came Friday and for the first time in three years my Port24 is without some Dendreon.
DNDN had a great run in the last month - moving from $32 to $42 - and my gamble that it wouldn't break $40 was a bad one. I will probably hold on to the cash for a few days to assess what I want to do. I really am not comfortable with the overall market but there are always places to put money to work.
PZG had a bad week - the first resource report came out and I feel was badly prepared-for by the company. I still look forward to a very good year for Paramount but it may be a couple months of sitting and waiting.
The Port's return is about 18% annualized, as of 4/15. In one month, it turns 3 years old! So I am lagging my desired return of 24% a year quite badly - by 6%! In my defense, for newer readers, I have made two stupid mistakes: 1) with Elan in not taking enormous profits when I could have, and 2) in neglecting the Port for about 9 of the 35 months I've been running it. Those nine months of "lost" covered call returns very well could have made up that 6%.
Even with the mistakes, I will concede that 18% is pretty good. And better, in comparison to the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq (QQQQ), I am handily beating the market in the same period. The SPY has returned -0.6% in the 35 month period while the QQQQ's are at 5.7% annualized. So I'm still beating the better of the two by 12.4% per year. That is respectable.
Cash $19,372.85 Position (calls against)
2600 CLDX (26)
2000 NBIX (20)
7000 NNVC (0)
7000 ONTY (70)
1600 DCTH (16)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
Regards,
Trond
DNDN had a great run in the last month - moving from $32 to $42 - and my gamble that it wouldn't break $40 was a bad one. I will probably hold on to the cash for a few days to assess what I want to do. I really am not comfortable with the overall market but there are always places to put money to work.
PZG had a bad week - the first resource report came out and I feel was badly prepared-for by the company. I still look forward to a very good year for Paramount but it may be a couple months of sitting and waiting.
The Port's return is about 18% annualized, as of 4/15. In one month, it turns 3 years old! So I am lagging my desired return of 24% a year quite badly - by 6%! In my defense, for newer readers, I have made two stupid mistakes: 1) with Elan in not taking enormous profits when I could have, and 2) in neglecting the Port for about 9 of the 35 months I've been running it. Those nine months of "lost" covered call returns very well could have made up that 6%.
Even with the mistakes, I will concede that 18% is pretty good. And better, in comparison to the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq (QQQQ), I am handily beating the market in the same period. The SPY has returned -0.6% in the 35 month period while the QQQQ's are at 5.7% annualized. So I'm still beating the better of the two by 12.4% per year. That is respectable.
Cash $19,372.85 Position (calls against)
2600 CLDX (26)
2000 NBIX (20)
7000 NNVC (0)
7000 ONTY (70)
1600 DCTH (16)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, April 7, 2011
More covered calls & Port24 update
Seeing as how option expiration is next week, I decided to get some premium this morning. DNDN Apr $40s for $0.38, DCTH May $9s for $0.50, and SGEN Jun $17.50 for $0.85. Nanoviricides (NNVC) is having a good week, up the $1.50s on more FluCide news. I actually sold a little in my real money portfolios, as I try to trade this one more actively than I sometimes do (this is in an IRA so I don't have to worry about taxes). If you have a 2 to 5 year holding time, this is still not a bad time to buy but I suspect it will be 10 to 20 cents lower in a month or two. The Port24 is back over 20% annualized returns... Dendreon's return to the high $30s as well as Nanoviricide's pop contributed. Celsion has been lagging but I expect within three months it will be the star of the show. I am loaded in CLSN in my real money accounts as well. Cash = $3,390.35 2600 CLDX (26) 400 DNDN (4) 2000 NBIX (20) 7000 NNVC (0) 7000 ONTY (70) 1600 DCTH (16) 3600 PZG (0) 9000 CLSN (0) 2000 MITI (0) 800 SGEN (8) Regards, Trond
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Another covered call sale
On Friday I sold 20 NBIX calls - the May $8s - for $0.25 in the Port. That brings us up to a 16.5% annual return and rapidly closing in on three years of the Port24. I have the holdings listed below. Of them all, the only ones I would consider buys right now are Celsion, Nanoviricides, and Paramount Gold. I would expect PZG to release their first resource report this coming week, and will probably sell out of the Port when that occurs. I have quite a few shares of PZG in my real-money accounts, however, and will only sell modestly there... I think 2011 will be a great year for PZG. Nanoviricides may not have any news for months but then again it may announce something any time. I wouldn't add massively today, but to start a position it's a great time in the $1.20s. Celsion also may not move for a couple months but it really is time to fish or cut bait here. By May or June it will have started its runup, and I expect to have a double from here by the end of June. Regards, Trond Port24 holdings (calls against) 2600 CLDX (26) 400 DNDN (0) 2000 NBIX (20) 7000 NNVC (0) 7000 ONTY (70) 1600 DCTH (0) 3600 PZG () 9000 CLSN (0) 2000 MITI (0) 800 SGEN (0) $1,814.37 cash
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