Port 24 update:
The only January options I had sold were 10 MELA $10 calls, and they were exercised, with the stock at $11.05 last Friday.
With that cash, I bought 300 more Dendreon shares today, and sold 3 Feb $32 calls against them for $0.89 per share.
I am living by my resolution to be a little more active in the Port! I also sold the following calls today:
16 ELN March $9s for $0.30
15 SGMO Feb $7.50s for $0.25
10 MELA Feb $12.50s for $0.20
2 AMAG Feb $55s for $0.50
I almost sold calls against ALTH - but I feel there is a little more room beneath the stock before selling calls. AOB needs to climb closer to $5 to make it worth selling calls, and NBIX at $2.50 is not satisfactory to sell the $2.50s, and the $5s are not worth anything yet.
The Port 24 thus has the following stocks (covered calls in parentheses)
1500 ALTH
200 AMAG (2)
2000 AOB
4900 ARNA (24)
700 DNDN (3)
1600 ELN (16)
1000 MELA (10)
2000 NBIX
2000 PGNX (20)
1000 RMTI (10)
2500 SGMO (15)
.. with cash of $2,680. This gives me a port value of about $132,500 and a 19.3% annualized return. I'm getting closer to my 24% return, again!
Stocks:
Genvec released a PR that they have licensed their hearing loss pre-clinical work to Novartis, for $5M plus milestones and royalties. They also hit the 184 death interim trigger in the PACT trial on Friday, and will have data in 10 to 12 weeks. I'm nearly as excited about Genvec as I was about Dendreon, but caution that the risk/reward is much slighter here at $2 than at $0.76 when I first mentioned it here a few months ago. I was still buying in my real-world IRA at $1.70, but am probably done for now.
Dendreon had an interview published in the Xconomy online magazine with the new COO Hans Bishop. It is a MUST READ, here: http://www.xconomy.com/seattle/2010/01/19/dendreons-new-operations-man-hans-bishop-aims-to-keep-provenge-trains-running-on-time/
Sangamo had good results (albeit from one patient, in a Phase I trial) here: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sangamo-BioSciences-Announces-prnews-1693198508.html?x=0&.v=1
Regards,
Trond
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Port 24 update, Dendreon, and GenVec
I neglected to mention yesterday that I bought 1000 shares of Rockwell Medical Technologies (RMTI) at $7.73 in the Port24. I turned and sold February $7.50 calls for $0.85 each.
I wanted to clarify in my end-of-year post that although my annualized rate of return in the Port24 is only 13%, the gross return was about 25% - we've gone from $100,000 to $125K in 19 months. I took the time to see what benchmarks might be like: the S&P in the same time frame had a -10.5% annualized return (including dividends) and the Nasdaq was 8.1%.
GenVec and Dendreon both received an opening nod and a "buy" recommendation from Roth Capital Partners this morning. Further upgrades will probably be coming shortly.
GenVec in particular is nice to see at $1.60+ this morning as it officially constitutes a double from my initial rec back in October ($0.76 was my first buy in my real-world IRA). For the record, I was still buying yesterday at $1.37. With the rise and my further buys, it is now actually my second largest holding (after Dendreon) and at this rate might be the largest in a couple days... :-)
Regards,
Trond
I wanted to clarify in my end-of-year post that although my annualized rate of return in the Port24 is only 13%, the gross return was about 25% - we've gone from $100,000 to $125K in 19 months. I took the time to see what benchmarks might be like: the S&P in the same time frame had a -10.5% annualized return (including dividends) and the Nasdaq was 8.1%.
GenVec and Dendreon both received an opening nod and a "buy" recommendation from Roth Capital Partners this morning. Further upgrades will probably be coming shortly.
GenVec in particular is nice to see at $1.60+ this morning as it officially constitutes a double from my initial rec back in October ($0.76 was my first buy in my real-world IRA). For the record, I was still buying yesterday at $1.37. With the rise and my further buys, it is now actually my second largest holding (after Dendreon) and at this rate might be the largest in a couple days... :-)
Regards,
Trond
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Stock market vs. the economy
It used to be that if the economic climate was good, the stock market would do well also. Conversely, with the release of bad economic data, the market would have a "correction".
I believe that the correlation between the two is much weaker now. I think there are two main reasons why this is so.
More money
There is simply too much money sloshing around the system right now. The advent on 401(k) plans and discount brokerages in the last 20 years has meant an explosion in the amount of money being invested. Something like 40% of workers now have some sort of directed stake in the market - where it used to be around 6%. Add to that the burgeoning number of private and even sovereign equity funds...
That money has to find a home. With more money chasing stocks, the general price level will rise, even with no rise in the value of the underlying companies.
Trading mentality
I am not talking day trading here! But the automated rebalancing of 401(k) plans, ETFs that get moved around every day, a general populace that is more comfortable staying in stocks during "bad" times, and a growing number of individual investors who arewilling to buy dips in the market, all contribute to flattening out some of the more violent swings we have seen previously.
Are there any lessons here? Perhaps not - just a general reminder that over the last 10 months as the market has gone up, please understand that the economy itself may not follow suit immediately. Make sure you rebalance, if that is your choice, as your allocations have certainly swung dramatically from a year ago. Do you have an emergency fund? Are you pre-paying your mortgage? Paying more than the minimum on your credit cards?
I am not convinced that the "green shoots" will truly take root in 2010. Please make sure your family is living below your means, saving (and investing) money, and adequately insured.
Regards,
Trond
I believe that the correlation between the two is much weaker now. I think there are two main reasons why this is so.
More money
There is simply too much money sloshing around the system right now. The advent on 401(k) plans and discount brokerages in the last 20 years has meant an explosion in the amount of money being invested. Something like 40% of workers now have some sort of directed stake in the market - where it used to be around 6%. Add to that the burgeoning number of private and even sovereign equity funds...
That money has to find a home. With more money chasing stocks, the general price level will rise, even with no rise in the value of the underlying companies.
Trading mentality
I am not talking day trading here! But the automated rebalancing of 401(k) plans, ETFs that get moved around every day, a general populace that is more comfortable staying in stocks during "bad" times, and a growing number of individual investors who arewilling to buy dips in the market, all contribute to flattening out some of the more violent swings we have seen previously.
Are there any lessons here? Perhaps not - just a general reminder that over the last 10 months as the market has gone up, please understand that the economy itself may not follow suit immediately. Make sure you rebalance, if that is your choice, as your allocations have certainly swung dramatically from a year ago. Do you have an emergency fund? Are you pre-paying your mortgage? Paying more than the minimum on your credit cards?
I am not convinced that the "green shoots" will truly take root in 2010. Please make sure your family is living below your means, saving (and investing) money, and adequately insured.
Regards,
Trond
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