Monday, February 21, 2011

Port24 update - back to 18% annualized

Last Friday was options expiration day for February. I made a good choice on selling the CLDA calls for $35 instead of $30, as it rocketed at the end of the week to $33.90. Similarly with NBIX, selling the $7.50 Febs was excellent as the stock closed Friday at $7.45.

So while that makes me happy, I'm even happier on seeing that I'm back to a 18.2% annualized return, approaching my third full year of this blog and the Portfolio24. Obviously I'd like to be able to point to a 24%+ return, but I've pointed out in past entries the two major things that have prevented that: A very large position in Elan that I continually refused to sell calls against (and that eventually went bad) and two fairly long periods of time (several months each time!) where I did no trading at all in the Port. I do not intend on repeating either of those mistakes!

Some housekeeping: I will be "transferring" the Port24 from a ficticious Scottrade account to a ficticious Zecco account later this week. Although I like Scottrade, and still have one IRA there, I have moved most of my accounts to Zecco. Although they have a $30/year fee for IRAs, the commisions there are $4.50 for stock and 4.50+ 0.50/contract for options, as opposed to Scottrade's $7 and $7+1.25/ commisions. The exercise/assignment fee is only $4.50 instead of $17. There are no account minimum or inactivity fees. Best of all, for accounts of $25,000 or more (or if you perform 25 trades per month), you get ten free trades a month. With the Port at $150K+, this will kill most commission costs and keep it as real as I can.

I will have to research a little to determine how much it would cost to transfer the actual positions from Scottrade to Zecco and I will hit my cash for that amount. As a reminder, I am keeping this portfolio as close to real life as I can. Before posting any trades, I actually look at the current bid/ask for whatever position I am trading and use those listed for the sale or buy. My real accounts tend to be slightly better on the executions because I can set a limit order and end up a nickel or dime better per option trade. That may not sound like much, but with an average 1,000 share lot covering ten contracts, a nickel difference ends up being $50.

I've been asked about my favorite stocks for 2011 and I have to say that basing anything on a calendar year is pretty silly. That said, I do have some stocks that I am in, and feel will do quite well over the next 3 months to a year time frame.

Celsion CLSN at $2.60 is something I have been buying hand over fist recently. I harbor no illusions that their interim look for summer-ish will halt the trial and allow early submission to the FDA (although it IS a chance), but they should easily run up to $5 or more before the summer in anticipation of the chance.

Neurocrine NBIX at $7.50 may be up and down a couple bucks either way in the next three months but I feel will enter 2012 in the double digits.

Delcath DCTH at $11.30 should hear from the FDA within a week or so, accepting their NDA. That may or may not move the stock, but I am certain that by the end of June they will get approval and be in the high teens, if not more.

Paramount Gold PZG at $3.90 (although not a biotech) is something I have had in my real money port since early 2009 around $1.25. I think they are the real deal, and will be double digits by fall.

Good luck to all. Thanks for reading!
Regards,
Trond

No comments: