Had a little more time this morning (finally) and was able to update the Port with the ARNA sell last week. It's all timing, sometimes... the one point I was able to log on to look at the actual price (something I do for every Port transaction - whatever time I look, that is the price I use at the bid or ask) ARNA was at just about it's lowest point of the day - $1.48. It was up more than 10% within an hour after that!
Today I sold 200 AMAG (getting tired of waiting for Feraheme sales and safety issues to die down) and 2000 AOB (China pharma hit the skids). I turned around and bought 6000 CLSN at $3.09.
Port now looks like:
2000 NBIX
1600 ELN
400 DNDN
6000 CLSN
2500 SGMO
7000 ONTY
3500 VICL
7000 PZG
2000 MNKD
It's worth just under $125K, which means I've reverted to the mean - I have about a 10% annual return in about 2.5 years. Now, the S&P has returned around -5% and the Nasdaq is 2.8% over that same period, so I can't be too sad but it's absolutely NOT where I want to be (neglecting the Port for 3-5 months at a time doesn't help)! I intend to be back to at least a 13-15% return by the end of the year.
Regards,
Trond
Showing posts with label AMAG Pharma. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AMAG Pharma. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Port Update
Sold the 4000 GNVC, as planned yesterday, and at $2.88. It is higher today, and it killed me to do it, but I really do want stocks that can have calls sold against them, in the Port. I mostly want to make money here, so if I see something enticing enough, I will buy non-optionable stocks, but the ground rules are there for a reason!
I looked at the other holdings of the Port this morning and nothing appeals to me in terms of selling calls. I have a bunch of cash, and Oncothyreon (ONTY) happens to be a watchlist stock that had bad news this morning. I bought 3,000 shares at $3.41 (and 1k in my real-world IRA at $3.45, earlier) - I'll let the share price shake out a little and then sell calls against them.
So now the Port is comprised of
2000 AOB
2000 NBIX
1600 ELN
400 DNDN
4900 ARNA
2500 SGMO
1000 MELA
200 AMAG
1500 ALTH
3000 ONTY
with $21,585 of cash.
I'm at a 30.8% return in nearly two years, a 16.6% annualized rate. The S&P 500 over that time has returned -7.3% and the Nasdaq has returned 9.3%.
Regards,
Trond
I looked at the other holdings of the Port this morning and nothing appeals to me in terms of selling calls. I have a bunch of cash, and Oncothyreon (ONTY) happens to be a watchlist stock that had bad news this morning. I bought 3,000 shares at $3.41 (and 1k in my real-world IRA at $3.45, earlier) - I'll let the share price shake out a little and then sell calls against them.
So now the Port is comprised of
2000 AOB
2000 NBIX
1600 ELN
400 DNDN
4900 ARNA
2500 SGMO
1000 MELA
200 AMAG
1500 ALTH
3000 ONTY
with $21,585 of cash.
I'm at a 30.8% return in nearly two years, a 16.6% annualized rate. The S&P 500 over that time has returned -7.3% and the Nasdaq has returned 9.3%.
Regards,
Trond
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Port 24 and assorted biotech news
Port 24 update:
The only January options I had sold were 10 MELA $10 calls, and they were exercised, with the stock at $11.05 last Friday.
With that cash, I bought 300 more Dendreon shares today, and sold 3 Feb $32 calls against them for $0.89 per share.
I am living by my resolution to be a little more active in the Port! I also sold the following calls today:
16 ELN March $9s for $0.30
15 SGMO Feb $7.50s for $0.25
10 MELA Feb $12.50s for $0.20
2 AMAG Feb $55s for $0.50
I almost sold calls against ALTH - but I feel there is a little more room beneath the stock before selling calls. AOB needs to climb closer to $5 to make it worth selling calls, and NBIX at $2.50 is not satisfactory to sell the $2.50s, and the $5s are not worth anything yet.
The Port 24 thus has the following stocks (covered calls in parentheses)
1500 ALTH
200 AMAG (2)
2000 AOB
4900 ARNA (24)
700 DNDN (3)
1600 ELN (16)
1000 MELA (10)
2000 NBIX
2000 PGNX (20)
1000 RMTI (10)
2500 SGMO (15)
.. with cash of $2,680. This gives me a port value of about $132,500 and a 19.3% annualized return. I'm getting closer to my 24% return, again!
Stocks:
Genvec released a PR that they have licensed their hearing loss pre-clinical work to Novartis, for $5M plus milestones and royalties. They also hit the 184 death interim trigger in the PACT trial on Friday, and will have data in 10 to 12 weeks. I'm nearly as excited about Genvec as I was about Dendreon, but caution that the risk/reward is much slighter here at $2 than at $0.76 when I first mentioned it here a few months ago. I was still buying in my real-world IRA at $1.70, but am probably done for now.
Dendreon had an interview published in the Xconomy online magazine with the new COO Hans Bishop. It is a MUST READ, here: http://www.xconomy.com/seattle/2010/01/19/dendreons-new-operations-man-hans-bishop-aims-to-keep-provenge-trains-running-on-time/
Sangamo had good results (albeit from one patient, in a Phase I trial) here: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sangamo-BioSciences-Announces-prnews-1693198508.html?x=0&.v=1
Regards,
Trond
The only January options I had sold were 10 MELA $10 calls, and they were exercised, with the stock at $11.05 last Friday.
With that cash, I bought 300 more Dendreon shares today, and sold 3 Feb $32 calls against them for $0.89 per share.
I am living by my resolution to be a little more active in the Port! I also sold the following calls today:
16 ELN March $9s for $0.30
15 SGMO Feb $7.50s for $0.25
10 MELA Feb $12.50s for $0.20
2 AMAG Feb $55s for $0.50
I almost sold calls against ALTH - but I feel there is a little more room beneath the stock before selling calls. AOB needs to climb closer to $5 to make it worth selling calls, and NBIX at $2.50 is not satisfactory to sell the $2.50s, and the $5s are not worth anything yet.
The Port 24 thus has the following stocks (covered calls in parentheses)
1500 ALTH
200 AMAG (2)
2000 AOB
4900 ARNA (24)
700 DNDN (3)
1600 ELN (16)
1000 MELA (10)
2000 NBIX
2000 PGNX (20)
1000 RMTI (10)
2500 SGMO (15)
.. with cash of $2,680. This gives me a port value of about $132,500 and a 19.3% annualized return. I'm getting closer to my 24% return, again!
Stocks:
Genvec released a PR that they have licensed their hearing loss pre-clinical work to Novartis, for $5M plus milestones and royalties. They also hit the 184 death interim trigger in the PACT trial on Friday, and will have data in 10 to 12 weeks. I'm nearly as excited about Genvec as I was about Dendreon, but caution that the risk/reward is much slighter here at $2 than at $0.76 when I first mentioned it here a few months ago. I was still buying in my real-world IRA at $1.70, but am probably done for now.
Dendreon had an interview published in the Xconomy online magazine with the new COO Hans Bishop. It is a MUST READ, here: http://www.xconomy.com/seattle/2010/01/19/dendreons-new-operations-man-hans-bishop-aims-to-keep-provenge-trains-running-on-time/
Sangamo had good results (albeit from one patient, in a Phase I trial) here: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sangamo-BioSciences-Announces-prnews-1693198508.html?x=0&.v=1
Regards,
Trond
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Happy New Year
Thanks to all who read this - I have not been good about keeping up posting, or even the Port 24. I shall strive to do better in the new year, as I want to bring my returns back up to the 24% level.
I am closing out the year with a few calls being sold in the Port. 24 Arena Feb $4s, 10 Electro-Optical Jan $10s, and 20 Progenics Feb $5s ... all with a monthly return of about 4%.
I will be ending 2009 with an annualized rate of return of about 13% - good, but far short of my target. I do take comfort in the fact that I ignored the Port for long stretches of time and would have made a few more percentage points on the calls I neglected to sell.
My worst move this year was to not sell ARNA on the spikes. That cost me around $20,000. Of course I would not have sold at exactly the high point, but I really should have lightened up. On the plus side, I did exactly that with BioCryst - buying low, selling high, and selling a lot of calls in the interim. Dendreon was the clear winner this year - going from around $5 to the current $26.
Next year should see Dendreon achieve FDA approval for Provenge, Electro-Optical gain approval for MelaFund, partnerships for Arena and Neurocrine, and significant appreciation for Elan, Amag, and Allos. I find myself hoping that GenVec starts trading options as I would love to have some GNVC in the Port.
May everyone have a fun and safe New Year!
Regards,
Trond
I am closing out the year with a few calls being sold in the Port. 24 Arena Feb $4s, 10 Electro-Optical Jan $10s, and 20 Progenics Feb $5s ... all with a monthly return of about 4%.
I will be ending 2009 with an annualized rate of return of about 13% - good, but far short of my target. I do take comfort in the fact that I ignored the Port for long stretches of time and would have made a few more percentage points on the calls I neglected to sell.
My worst move this year was to not sell ARNA on the spikes. That cost me around $20,000. Of course I would not have sold at exactly the high point, but I really should have lightened up. On the plus side, I did exactly that with BioCryst - buying low, selling high, and selling a lot of calls in the interim. Dendreon was the clear winner this year - going from around $5 to the current $26.
Next year should see Dendreon achieve FDA approval for Provenge, Electro-Optical gain approval for MelaFund, partnerships for Arena and Neurocrine, and significant appreciation for Elan, Amag, and Allos. I find myself hoping that GenVec starts trading options as I would love to have some GNVC in the Port.
May everyone have a fun and safe New Year!
Regards,
Trond
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Port 24 update
Options expiration was yesterday and I was only exercised on 600 Dendreon shares. Elan, Sangamo, American Oriental, Arena, and Electro-Optical calls all expired with the premium as 100% profit.
Dendreon was a little disappointing, as I hate to see any shares of this company go, even in a ficticious portfolio. I had sold the $35s at $0.84, and then bought them back at a profit ($0.20), and then sold the $28s. It closed at $29.51 and so they were called away from me; I now have only 400 shares left (just under 10% of the Port).
I have to say I am a little surprised at Dendreon's strength. The addition of two new Board members (one, Ian Clark, the upcoming CEO of Genentech North America) certainly fueled speculation about the Rest-Of-World partner for Provenge being Genentech.
For me, the only real news of interest coming up is the amended BLA scheduled for mid-November. And the aBLA itself really is not newsworthy as they announced it a month ago. But - the sensitivity analysis should be included and hopefully made public. This sensitivity analysis is important to me because it will show the continued strength of Provenge over time. In April, the final results of the IMPACT trial showed a statistically significant reduction of risk of death of 22.5% over the placebo group. This 8+ month (results were released in April but the results were based off data cut off in January) should show an improving hazard ratio over and above the 22.5% aleready seen. I would like to see 26%+.
Elan will be having their quarterly earnings call on 10/21, but will be upstaged slightly on the 20th when Biogen releases Tysabri numbers for Q3. I expect to see continuing, although not blowout, growth in the patient count. However, I also expect Elan to announce they will swing to profitability in either Q4 or Q1 2010. We should see real growth in revenue from the EDT branch, and unfortunately we probably will not hear any real news of the Alzheimers platform on this call.
In my real money IRA, I have been buying GenVec (GNVC) and MannKind (MKND) for the first time and more Elan (ELN) and Sangamo (SGMO). I am very excited for GNVC but the move started earlier than I thought it would: I started buying at $0.76 per share and it already touched $1 this last week.
I'll be adding a couple watchlist stocks, mentioning now only that Allos (ALTH), AMAG Pharma (AMAG), and MannKind (MKND) should deliver 50-100% returns in the next 12-24 months.
Regards,
Trond
Dendreon was a little disappointing, as I hate to see any shares of this company go, even in a ficticious portfolio. I had sold the $35s at $0.84, and then bought them back at a profit ($0.20), and then sold the $28s. It closed at $29.51 and so they were called away from me; I now have only 400 shares left (just under 10% of the Port).
I have to say I am a little surprised at Dendreon's strength. The addition of two new Board members (one, Ian Clark, the upcoming CEO of Genentech North America) certainly fueled speculation about the Rest-Of-World partner for Provenge being Genentech.
For me, the only real news of interest coming up is the amended BLA scheduled for mid-November. And the aBLA itself really is not newsworthy as they announced it a month ago. But - the sensitivity analysis should be included and hopefully made public. This sensitivity analysis is important to me because it will show the continued strength of Provenge over time. In April, the final results of the IMPACT trial showed a statistically significant reduction of risk of death of 22.5% over the placebo group. This 8+ month (results were released in April but the results were based off data cut off in January) should show an improving hazard ratio over and above the 22.5% aleready seen. I would like to see 26%+.
Elan will be having their quarterly earnings call on 10/21, but will be upstaged slightly on the 20th when Biogen releases Tysabri numbers for Q3. I expect to see continuing, although not blowout, growth in the patient count. However, I also expect Elan to announce they will swing to profitability in either Q4 or Q1 2010. We should see real growth in revenue from the EDT branch, and unfortunately we probably will not hear any real news of the Alzheimers platform on this call.
In my real money IRA, I have been buying GenVec (GNVC) and MannKind (MKND) for the first time and more Elan (ELN) and Sangamo (SGMO). I am very excited for GNVC but the move started earlier than I thought it would: I started buying at $0.76 per share and it already touched $1 this last week.
I'll be adding a couple watchlist stocks, mentioning now only that Allos (ALTH), AMAG Pharma (AMAG), and MannKind (MKND) should deliver 50-100% returns in the next 12-24 months.
Regards,
Trond
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
More Port 24 updates
Did a bunch at lunch today.
Sold the 6000 JAV for a 1 month 43% profit. It very well may keep going but I'm taking it off the table.
Bought 1800 AOB at $5 and sold the Aug $5 calls for $0.25. Around a 4% profit if over $5 in a month...
Sold 4 Aug $24 Dendreon calls for $0.90.
Bought 200 AMAG. Have not sold calls yet as I think it will go up in a couple weeks.
This is the current Port:
1800 AOB (18)
2000 NBIX
1600 ELN
1000 DNDN (4)
4900 ARNA (29)
2500 SGMO
400 BCRX
2000 MELA (20)
200 AMAG
$1980.36 cash
ann. = 10.62%
In my real IRA I also bought some AMAG today. I'll have to update my Favorite stocks!
Regards,
Trond
Sold the 6000 JAV for a 1 month 43% profit. It very well may keep going but I'm taking it off the table.
Bought 1800 AOB at $5 and sold the Aug $5 calls for $0.25. Around a 4% profit if over $5 in a month...
Sold 4 Aug $24 Dendreon calls for $0.90.
Bought 200 AMAG. Have not sold calls yet as I think it will go up in a couple weeks.
This is the current Port:
1800 AOB (18)
2000 NBIX
1600 ELN
1000 DNDN (4)
4900 ARNA (29)
2500 SGMO
400 BCRX
2000 MELA (20)
200 AMAG
$1980.36 cash
ann. = 10.62%
In my real IRA I also bought some AMAG today. I'll have to update my Favorite stocks!
Regards,
Trond
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