Two things tonight:
Elan and Wyeth announced that they are dropping the 2 mg dose in the non-APOE4 gene carrier cohorts of the Alzheimer's Disease drug bapineuzimab (AAB-001), due to safey concerns relating to vasogenic edema. That was the minor brain swelling they encountered in the Phase II - more so in the carrier group than the non-carrier. They already had made the decision to not include that dosing group in the Phase III carrier group.
What this means is simply that those already dosed will continue in the trial and be randomized into the .5 or the 1 mg groups. This is not really news that should move the stock.
We had a pretty good move in the Nasdaq today ... it went from 30.77 to 31.76, or 3% That was enough to move the options as shown below (new prices are what you could sell the contracts for. If I closed out it would make some money, but not at my target, so it continues!
As an aside, I opened up a real time trade near the end of the day when the QQQQ was at $31.93 -- 3 each of the April $32 calls and puts. I will advise when I close out of this trade.
Strike Date . Strike Price . Type . Contract Price . Sell Price
April . . . . . $30 . . . . . . . . .Call . . . . . . . $150 . . . . . 238
April . . . . . .$31 . . . . . . . .. .Put . . . . . . .. $114 . . . .. 62
May . . . . . .$30 . .. . . . . . Call . . . .. . . .$216 . . . . 298
May . . . . . . .$31 . . . . . .. . . .Put . . . . .. . . $181 . . . . 131
IF I closed out of the April trades now, I would have gained 2*88 on the calls and lost 3*52 on the puts... with commissions it would be pretty much a wash. I really need a full doubling of the profit side to close out successfully. It is also obvious in retrospect that one should strive to made the two sides an equal number of calls vs. puts, as the calls need to gain a larger percentage to offset the 150% as many puts.
In the May series, there is a 2*82 gain and a 3*50 loss, again, nearly a wash. I will hold these.
Regards,
Trond
Showing posts with label Alzheimer's. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alzheimer's. Show all posts
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Tysabri numbers
Color me happy.
Biogen presented their earnings today and part of that was Tysabri numbers.
Background: Biogen is Elan's marketing partner for Tysabri. In late July it was disclosed that 2 patients in Europe had developed PML -- which Tysabri has a black-box label warning for, estimated at 1 in a 1000 chances of contracting.
We went from 31,800 patients at the end of June to 35,500 patients at the end of September. (#s are totals-- 600 of those are in clinical trials). So we gained 11% patients, in a quarter where we lost over half the market cap due to PML fears.
As usual, most PR coverage was negative - even false. For example, Lisa LaMotta, a Forbes Online columnist, wrote the following (as of 10/21/08 at 9:40 PM it still says this -- I fully expect by tomorrow it will be "updated" / edited ... AFTER the immediate damage has been done.
http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/21/biogen-idec-biotech-markets-equity-cx_lal_1021markets24.html?partner=yahootix
Market Scan
Biogen Bitten By Tysabri
Lisa LaMotta, 10.21.08, 3:45 PM ET
"....Biogen Idec reported earnings that beat expectations mostly due to the sale of its two multiple sclerosis drugs, but investors were disappointed by a slight slowdown from the second quarter in the number of patients taking one of them...
...As of the end of September, more than 35,500 patients were on Tysabri,the mulitple sclerosis drug in question, down from 31,800 at the end of the second quarter...."
1) slight slowdown? The RATE OF GROWTH slowed down. but the number of patients increased!
2) use a spell checker if you are going to call yourself a Forbes journalist!!! (sorry, catty, I know)
3) First time I've heard of 35K being lower than 31K.
Almost sounds like she'd written the hit piece first -- intending simply to fill in the expected bad numbers, doesn't it?
Next -- PML risk; rated at 1:1000.
We have 35,000 on therapy now, and 3,000 from before 2006, with a total of 4 patients contracting PML. It sounds to me more like 1 : 10,000.
Elan is around $9 right now, and SO UNDERVALUED by Mr. Market that is scary. Tysabri sales are increasing and we officially hit blockbuster status -- sales of $1B (granted -- projecting forward revenues).
Before the PML scare in July just on Tysabri Elan was valued around $20. (don't get me started on the Alzheimer's drug AAB-001 and its potential -- a massive Phase III trial nearly a year already underway from it's first dosed patient and a statistically significant showing in a subgroup of gene carriers).
It will probably be one more quarter before the market shows Elan any love -- and coincidentally the next quarter which should show a large increase in quarter-over-quarter sales of Tysabri.
So I would not be surprised if Elan bounced between $8 and $11 over the next three months -- but by February of 2009 I fully expect to see Elan at about $14 - 17; a rather sweet return of 50% or so. If an interim look at AAB-001 comes in positive, then the rocketship ignites.
Regards,
Trond
Biogen presented their earnings today and part of that was Tysabri numbers.
Background: Biogen is Elan's marketing partner for Tysabri. In late July it was disclosed that 2 patients in Europe had developed PML -- which Tysabri has a black-box label warning for, estimated at 1 in a 1000 chances of contracting.
We went from 31,800 patients at the end of June to 35,500 patients at the end of September. (#s are totals-- 600 of those are in clinical trials). So we gained 11% patients, in a quarter where we lost over half the market cap due to PML fears.
As usual, most PR coverage was negative - even false. For example, Lisa LaMotta, a Forbes Online columnist, wrote the following (as of 10/21/08 at 9:40 PM it still says this -- I fully expect by tomorrow it will be "updated" / edited ... AFTER the immediate damage has been done.
http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/21/biogen-idec-biotech-markets-equity-cx_lal_1021markets24.html?partner=yahootix
Market Scan
Biogen Bitten By Tysabri
Lisa LaMotta, 10.21.08, 3:45 PM ET
"....Biogen Idec reported earnings that beat expectations mostly due to the sale of its two multiple sclerosis drugs, but investors were disappointed by a slight slowdown from the second quarter in the number of patients taking one of them...
...As of the end of September, more than 35,500 patients were on Tysabri,the mulitple sclerosis drug in question, down from 31,800 at the end of the second quarter...."
1) slight slowdown? The RATE OF GROWTH slowed down. but the number of patients increased!
2) use a spell checker if you are going to call yourself a Forbes journalist!!! (sorry, catty, I know)
3) First time I've heard of 35K being lower than 31K.
Almost sounds like she'd written the hit piece first -- intending simply to fill in the expected bad numbers, doesn't it?
Next -- PML risk; rated at 1:1000.
We have 35,000 on therapy now, and 3,000 from before 2006, with a total of 4 patients contracting PML. It sounds to me more like 1 : 10,000.
Elan is around $9 right now, and SO UNDERVALUED by Mr. Market that is scary. Tysabri sales are increasing and we officially hit blockbuster status -- sales of $1B (granted -- projecting forward revenues).
Before the PML scare in July just on Tysabri Elan was valued around $20. (don't get me started on the Alzheimer's drug AAB-001 and its potential -- a massive Phase III trial nearly a year already underway from it's first dosed patient and a statistically significant showing in a subgroup of gene carriers).
It will probably be one more quarter before the market shows Elan any love -- and coincidentally the next quarter which should show a large increase in quarter-over-quarter sales of Tysabri.
So I would not be surprised if Elan bounced between $8 and $11 over the next three months -- but by February of 2009 I fully expect to see Elan at about $14 - 17; a rather sweet return of 50% or so. If an interim look at AAB-001 comes in positive, then the rocketship ignites.
Regards,
Trond
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Port 24 Update - July expiration
Well, I am super busy at work right now and will be through mid August. So this will be a quickie post.
I was exercised on the Cardiome calls and kept my SuperGen and NVidia stock. I sold SuperGen on 7/25 at a loss -- the Dacogen trial was bad and I just don't see enough in the pipeline to keep the stock here. NVidia I will definely keep, although I am selling calls way below where I bought. Also sold calls (on 7/25/08) on Arena, Syneron, Taser, and calls on half my Neurocrine and Sangamo holdings.
My Elan holdings have no calls against them and I fully expect to sell some calls next Wednesday or so for either the $40s or $45s -- they release their detailed Alzheimer's Phase II results on 7/29 and I truly expect it to knock the socks off of Wall Street.
Dendreon announced last week that the interim results for the Provenge IMPACT trial will be available in October. Thus, my five August $7.50 calls will *probably* expire -- I am hoping for total success in the trial and so my five November calls at $12.50 may well be called away.
Taser had bad earnings, but selling calls at $5 to make some money -- same with Neurocrine but I have a bad feeling I will regret selling the 5s.
My current holdings are listed below: their value as-of 7/25 is $96,312 which along with recent cash update at $11,006 puts me at $107,270. That is a 7.27% return so far through 2.5 months -- annualized at about 35%.
Regards,
Trond
Holdings:
2000 NBIX (-10), 1000 ELN, 2000 DNDN (-10), 1200 TASR (-12), 2000 ARNA (-20), 1000 SGMO (-5), 400 NVDA (-4), 400 ELOS (-4)
I was exercised on the Cardiome calls and kept my SuperGen and NVidia stock. I sold SuperGen on 7/25 at a loss -- the Dacogen trial was bad and I just don't see enough in the pipeline to keep the stock here. NVidia I will definely keep, although I am selling calls way below where I bought. Also sold calls (on 7/25/08) on Arena, Syneron, Taser, and calls on half my Neurocrine and Sangamo holdings.
My Elan holdings have no calls against them and I fully expect to sell some calls next Wednesday or so for either the $40s or $45s -- they release their detailed Alzheimer's Phase II results on 7/29 and I truly expect it to knock the socks off of Wall Street.
Dendreon announced last week that the interim results for the Provenge IMPACT trial will be available in October. Thus, my five August $7.50 calls will *probably* expire -- I am hoping for total success in the trial and so my five November calls at $12.50 may well be called away.
Taser had bad earnings, but selling calls at $5 to make some money -- same with Neurocrine but I have a bad feeling I will regret selling the 5s.
My current holdings are listed below: their value as-of 7/25 is $96,312 which along with recent cash update at $11,006 puts me at $107,270. That is a 7.27% return so far through 2.5 months -- annualized at about 35%.
Regards,
Trond
Holdings:
2000 NBIX (-10), 1000 ELN, 2000 DNDN (-10), 1200 TASR (-12), 2000 ARNA (-20), 1000 SGMO (-5), 400 NVDA (-4), 400 ELOS (-4)
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Another Portfolio 24 trade
I won't bother with listing all the costs + commissions in every entry. What I'll do is list what I bought/sold, why, and the total portfolio at that point.
Bought 2000 NBIX at $4.63 and sold 10 Jun08 $5 calls at $.20.
Bought 400 ELN at $27.30 and sold 2 Jun08 $28 calls at $2.50.
It kills me to sell calls against Elan (ELN). They will likely be coming out with positive results for their Alzheimer's drug this summer and I think it likely the stock will soar. That said, 7% for just over a month is kind of nice too. But I'm only selling against 200 of the 400 shares I bought.
Neurocrine (NBIX) is expecting a lucrative partnership agreement sometime this summer/fall. That is why I am again selling calls against only half of what I bought.
Cash: $76497.98
Positions:
2000 SUPG, -20 (Jul08 $2.5)
2000 NBIX, -10 (Jun08 $5)
400 ELN, -2 (Jun08 $28)
Regards,
Trond
Bought 2000 NBIX at $4.63 and sold 10 Jun08 $5 calls at $.20.
Bought 400 ELN at $27.30 and sold 2 Jun08 $28 calls at $2.50.
It kills me to sell calls against Elan (ELN). They will likely be coming out with positive results for their Alzheimer's drug this summer and I think it likely the stock will soar. That said, 7% for just over a month is kind of nice too. But I'm only selling against 200 of the 400 shares I bought.
Neurocrine (NBIX) is expecting a lucrative partnership agreement sometime this summer/fall. That is why I am again selling calls against only half of what I bought.
Cash: $76497.98
Positions:
2000 SUPG, -20 (Jul08 $2.5)
2000 NBIX, -10 (Jun08 $5)
400 ELN, -2 (Jun08 $28)
Regards,
Trond
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