I am selling all remaining shares of Dendreon in the Port24 - today's current price is $11.58. This is at a steep loss to the buy in price, but I simply have no patience for mgmt anymore.
I certainly hope I'll be buying in again at some point, but what with mgmt indications from the last call that they will be letting folks go and the unwillingness to throw out any kind of revenue estimates, I cannot urge a position here at the present time.
Regards,
Trond
Showing posts with label DNDN. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DNDN. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
The RollerCoaster named Dendreon
Long time readers and friends know, I love me some Dendreon.
I started reading up on Provenge back in 2006, was just about "all-in" in 2007 during the FDA's Advisory Committee meeting that okayed it, and watched in horror as the FDA then gave the company a Complete Response Letter (CRL) a month later.
I sold some over the next couple years, but was again an active investor in 2010 when they finally got approval. I sold some in the $50s, more in the $40s, and finally sold the very last amount (save one single Jan 2012 call option) around $35, last November. I stay on top of the company news, however, and consider myself a Dendreonaire.
It is with awe and a sickening feeling, then, to see the after hours cratering of the stock price, following the Q2 earnings call. A transcript of that call can be found here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/284445-dendreon-corp-s-ceo-discusses-q2-2011-results-earnings-call-transcript
Let me sum up the entire issue in one paragraph, if I may. Provenge costs $93,000 for a one month round of therapy (3 infusions). Prescribing doctors make about $6K for themselves, but have to "eat" the entire $93K on a credit line or their own resources until they get reimbursed by insurance/Medicare. Up until extremely late June, there was a question of whether Medicare would cover Provenge (and while it did get a determination for coverage, that fact isn't even posted on the proper website yet!). Thus, for cash flow purposes, few urology or oncology practices could prescribe more than 1 patient at a time. Moreover, due to manufacturing limitations and the scale/cost of the one approved plant through most of this period, the company was unwilling to push large scale scripts yet.
All of the preceding hopefully explains the carnage in the stock price. At the end of after hours trading, it was around $13.70 - down from a regular session closing price of $35!
So the proper question now is, what to do: buy, sell, or hold?
The price tomorrow? It could well be $10, or it could be $17.
I would suggest that if one has no position, and a holding period of a half year or more, this is an excellent time to buy, if within the range above.
If you own shares currently, I'd hold on, all else being equal.
I feel, given the facts known now, that the company will recover from this, and end the year 2011 over $20. It may be 2013 before we see the $40s again, but for an extremely long term p-o-v, I believe this is a solid company that should be a core position.
Regards,
Trond
I started reading up on Provenge back in 2006, was just about "all-in" in 2007 during the FDA's Advisory Committee meeting that okayed it, and watched in horror as the FDA then gave the company a Complete Response Letter (CRL) a month later.
I sold some over the next couple years, but was again an active investor in 2010 when they finally got approval. I sold some in the $50s, more in the $40s, and finally sold the very last amount (save one single Jan 2012 call option) around $35, last November. I stay on top of the company news, however, and consider myself a Dendreonaire.
It is with awe and a sickening feeling, then, to see the after hours cratering of the stock price, following the Q2 earnings call. A transcript of that call can be found here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/284445-dendreon-corp-s-ceo-discusses-q2-2011-results-earnings-call-transcript
Let me sum up the entire issue in one paragraph, if I may. Provenge costs $93,000 for a one month round of therapy (3 infusions). Prescribing doctors make about $6K for themselves, but have to "eat" the entire $93K on a credit line or their own resources until they get reimbursed by insurance/Medicare. Up until extremely late June, there was a question of whether Medicare would cover Provenge (and while it did get a determination for coverage, that fact isn't even posted on the proper website yet!). Thus, for cash flow purposes, few urology or oncology practices could prescribe more than 1 patient at a time. Moreover, due to manufacturing limitations and the scale/cost of the one approved plant through most of this period, the company was unwilling to push large scale scripts yet.
All of the preceding hopefully explains the carnage in the stock price. At the end of after hours trading, it was around $13.70 - down from a regular session closing price of $35!
So the proper question now is, what to do: buy, sell, or hold?
The price tomorrow? It could well be $10, or it could be $17.
I would suggest that if one has no position, and a holding period of a half year or more, this is an excellent time to buy, if within the range above.
If you own shares currently, I'd hold on, all else being equal.
I feel, given the facts known now, that the company will recover from this, and end the year 2011 over $20. It may be 2013 before we see the $40s again, but for an extremely long term p-o-v, I believe this is a solid company that should be a core position.
Regards,
Trond
Saturday, July 23, 2011
July options
Oops, neglected to update the options expiration on the Port24 last weekend!
I had four stocks with calls sold against them - DNDN, EXEL, NBIX, and PIP. Dendreon and Exelixis expired under the strike price, so I retain the shares. NBIX and PIP were called away (although I retain some extra PIP, as I did not sell calls against the entire position).
The Port positions are shown below; I have $35,397.31 in cash with a 20.5% annualized return as of 7/22/11.
I do expect Celsion to continue its run; HEAT enrollment and the 190th PFS event should occur within 3 weeks now. I intend (in the Port24) to start taking some profits around the $5 mark - I'd bought lots around $2.64 and $2.31.
Regards,
Trond
# / Ticker / (calls sold)
1500 ARQL (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2600 CLDX (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
300 DNDN (0)
1100 EXEL (0)
2000 MITI (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
2500 PIP (0)
1600 SGMO (0)
I had four stocks with calls sold against them - DNDN, EXEL, NBIX, and PIP. Dendreon and Exelixis expired under the strike price, so I retain the shares. NBIX and PIP were called away (although I retain some extra PIP, as I did not sell calls against the entire position).
The Port positions are shown below; I have $35,397.31 in cash with a 20.5% annualized return as of 7/22/11.
I do expect Celsion to continue its run; HEAT enrollment and the 190th PFS event should occur within 3 weeks now. I intend (in the Port24) to start taking some profits around the $5 mark - I'd bought lots around $2.64 and $2.31.
Regards,
Trond
# / Ticker / (calls sold)
1500 ARQL (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2600 CLDX (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
300 DNDN (0)
1100 EXEL (0)
2000 MITI (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
2500 PIP (0)
1600 SGMO (0)
Monday, June 20, 2011
Options expiration fallout
The composition of the Port has changed dramatically from just a couple weeks ago.
We bid adieu to Seattle Genetics (SGEN) last Friday, as I had sold $17.50 calls and it closed at $19.50. Since I bought it 3 1/2 months ago at $15, and sold $1.25 worth of premium I can't complain too much with the 21% total return.
This morning I took advantage of the cash on hand, buying an old friend and a special situation.
The Port now owns Dendreon (DNDN) again, at $38.16. I did, however, sell July $40 calls, expecting a lift from the CMS coverage and the upcoming Seal Beach plant approval.
I also bought a second load of Pharmathene (PIP) (6,000 shares at $2.42) and sold 60 July calls at $2.50. Those calls, however, had a premium of $0.30!! That is a 12% premium for one month... and too much for me to resist in the Port.
Notably, I also bought some PIP for myself in my real money account this morning. I did not sell calls against these.
I'm down to $4,400 cash in the Port, so until I either sell more calls or liquidate some stock, I'll be holding the following:
Shares .. Ticker.. (calls sold)
1500 ARQL (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2600 CLDX (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
300 DNDN (3)
1100 EXEL (0)
2000 MITI (0)
2000 NBIX (20)
7000 NNVC (0)
2500 PIP (0)
6000 PIP (60)
1600 SGMO (0)
Regards,
Trond
We bid adieu to Seattle Genetics (SGEN) last Friday, as I had sold $17.50 calls and it closed at $19.50. Since I bought it 3 1/2 months ago at $15, and sold $1.25 worth of premium I can't complain too much with the 21% total return.
This morning I took advantage of the cash on hand, buying an old friend and a special situation.
The Port now owns Dendreon (DNDN) again, at $38.16. I did, however, sell July $40 calls, expecting a lift from the CMS coverage and the upcoming Seal Beach plant approval.
I also bought a second load of Pharmathene (PIP) (6,000 shares at $2.42) and sold 60 July calls at $2.50. Those calls, however, had a premium of $0.30!! That is a 12% premium for one month... and too much for me to resist in the Port.
Notably, I also bought some PIP for myself in my real money account this morning. I did not sell calls against these.
I'm down to $4,400 cash in the Port, so until I either sell more calls or liquidate some stock, I'll be holding the following:
Shares .. Ticker.. (calls sold)
1500 ARQL (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2600 CLDX (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
300 DNDN (3)
1100 EXEL (0)
2000 MITI (0)
2000 NBIX (20)
7000 NNVC (0)
2500 PIP (0)
6000 PIP (60)
1600 SGMO (0)
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Port 24 update
With the cash from the recent exercise of ONTY burning a hole in my pocket, I had some decisions to make.
NBIX is trading at a good price for a buy, but I already have nearly 10% there.
I was tempted by some more DNDN but I think this summer will see a better buying opportunity.
CLSN is a recurring temptation too, but I have the largest position there (and in my real money accounts) so I'm avoiding that too.
LXRX was also a possibility, but they are not optionable, and I also own NNVC in the Port that does not trade options.
So I decided to buy 2500 PIP and 1500 ARQL.
PIP is embroiled in a lawsuit against SIGA for licensing rights to a drug. From my readings it appears they have a very reasonable chance to win here - at $3.70 this is going to either be cut by a quarter or nearly triple. Much riskier than I typically would want for the Port, but I like the odds and also own this in real money accounts. You can research recent articles by James Altucher about this stock.
This is the second appearance by ARQL in the Port24. In September of 2008 we bought it at $2.91 and then eight months later said adieu to it at $4.43. Now I'm buying again at 6.70, in the expectation of a decent runup through the fall for trial results next year.
Surprisingly, I am not selling any calls right now. The premiums just are not there - we actually are wanting some shakeups in the market - volatility will move the premiums up.
Still have $9,599.35 in cash, and the positions listed below. I've dropped to a 17.5% annualized return, but at least against a negative 0.6% comparable to the S&P and a 5.6% against the Nasdaq.
2600 CLDX (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2000 NBIX (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
1500 ARQL (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
2500 PIP (0)
1600 SGMO (0)
NBIX is trading at a good price for a buy, but I already have nearly 10% there.
I was tempted by some more DNDN but I think this summer will see a better buying opportunity.
CLSN is a recurring temptation too, but I have the largest position there (and in my real money accounts) so I'm avoiding that too.
LXRX was also a possibility, but they are not optionable, and I also own NNVC in the Port that does not trade options.
So I decided to buy 2500 PIP and 1500 ARQL.
PIP is embroiled in a lawsuit against SIGA for licensing rights to a drug. From my readings it appears they have a very reasonable chance to win here - at $3.70 this is going to either be cut by a quarter or nearly triple. Much riskier than I typically would want for the Port, but I like the odds and also own this in real money accounts. You can research recent articles by James Altucher about this stock.
This is the second appearance by ARQL in the Port24. In September of 2008 we bought it at $2.91 and then eight months later said adieu to it at $4.43. Now I'm buying again at 6.70, in the expectation of a decent runup through the fall for trial results next year.
Surprisingly, I am not selling any calls right now. The premiums just are not there - we actually are wanting some shakeups in the market - volatility will move the premiums up.
Still have $9,599.35 in cash, and the positions listed below. I've dropped to a 17.5% annualized return, but at least against a negative 0.6% comparable to the S&P and a 5.6% against the Nasdaq.
2600 CLDX (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2000 NBIX (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
1500 ARQL (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
2500 PIP (0)
1600 SGMO (0)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
