Well, I am a big fan of full disclosure, but this is a hard post to write. The Marketocracy website allows anyone to participate in managing a mutual fund - fake of course. Nevertheless, you are bound by some rules; you can't bet it all on one stock, as no one stock can be more than a certain percent of the total. You can't be on margin, and you must be at least 65% invested. If you want to be a sector based fund, then a certain percentage of the holdings must be in that sector. They do all the calculations across months, quarters, and years to figure your returns and most importantly, compare those returns against the other marketocracy funds.
The best of the best are called the M100 - the 100 best performers, long term; culled from the 85,000+ managers and the 100,000+ funds being managed. Those 100 actually make a little money, too - the company uses the best managers' ideas to run an actual mutual fund and those managers are compensated. It is no secret that I firmly intend to be one of those manangers one day.
And that is why I am writing so sheepishly today. They update the quarterly returns quite late - Q2 was just posted about a month ago. And in my Heartstone Health fund (http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=CmOhHbFfEfOmLoNbMaKiAbDf), I was the 7th best fund (yes, 7th, not top 7%!!!) for the three month period. For the 3 year returns, for as long as I've HAD the fund for more than 3 years, I've been in the top 89%, and this quarter I came in at #67 overall.
I was ecstatic, of course, but now for the disclosure. Since they posted the results in September, I knew already that my 3rd quarter results were going to equal my second quarter results to the downside. Yes, I fear that I may well be the 7th WORST fund across the universe this coming quarter. Celsion dipped about 40%; VirnetX went from the $30s to about $20; and Dendreon crashed from the $30s to about $10! To be frank, I am not sure if any holding had a positive return in this quarter.
Since I am a sector fund (biotech/healthcare) my beta is quite a bit higher than the S&P 500. Beta is a measure of how volatile I am versus the market-as-a-whole. It is the long term that matters, of course, and I'm fully confident that I will come back and with a vengeance. Bring on the fourth quarter!
Regards,
Trond
Showing posts with label Dendreon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dendreon. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Dendreon - time to cut bait
I am selling all remaining shares of Dendreon in the Port24 - today's current price is $11.58. This is at a steep loss to the buy in price, but I simply have no patience for mgmt anymore.
I certainly hope I'll be buying in again at some point, but what with mgmt indications from the last call that they will be letting folks go and the unwillingness to throw out any kind of revenue estimates, I cannot urge a position here at the present time.
Regards,
Trond
I certainly hope I'll be buying in again at some point, but what with mgmt indications from the last call that they will be letting folks go and the unwillingness to throw out any kind of revenue estimates, I cannot urge a position here at the present time.
Regards,
Trond
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
The RollerCoaster named Dendreon
Long time readers and friends know, I love me some Dendreon.
I started reading up on Provenge back in 2006, was just about "all-in" in 2007 during the FDA's Advisory Committee meeting that okayed it, and watched in horror as the FDA then gave the company a Complete Response Letter (CRL) a month later.
I sold some over the next couple years, but was again an active investor in 2010 when they finally got approval. I sold some in the $50s, more in the $40s, and finally sold the very last amount (save one single Jan 2012 call option) around $35, last November. I stay on top of the company news, however, and consider myself a Dendreonaire.
It is with awe and a sickening feeling, then, to see the after hours cratering of the stock price, following the Q2 earnings call. A transcript of that call can be found here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/284445-dendreon-corp-s-ceo-discusses-q2-2011-results-earnings-call-transcript
Let me sum up the entire issue in one paragraph, if I may. Provenge costs $93,000 for a one month round of therapy (3 infusions). Prescribing doctors make about $6K for themselves, but have to "eat" the entire $93K on a credit line or their own resources until they get reimbursed by insurance/Medicare. Up until extremely late June, there was a question of whether Medicare would cover Provenge (and while it did get a determination for coverage, that fact isn't even posted on the proper website yet!). Thus, for cash flow purposes, few urology or oncology practices could prescribe more than 1 patient at a time. Moreover, due to manufacturing limitations and the scale/cost of the one approved plant through most of this period, the company was unwilling to push large scale scripts yet.
All of the preceding hopefully explains the carnage in the stock price. At the end of after hours trading, it was around $13.70 - down from a regular session closing price of $35!
So the proper question now is, what to do: buy, sell, or hold?
The price tomorrow? It could well be $10, or it could be $17.
I would suggest that if one has no position, and a holding period of a half year or more, this is an excellent time to buy, if within the range above.
If you own shares currently, I'd hold on, all else being equal.
I feel, given the facts known now, that the company will recover from this, and end the year 2011 over $20. It may be 2013 before we see the $40s again, but for an extremely long term p-o-v, I believe this is a solid company that should be a core position.
Regards,
Trond
I started reading up on Provenge back in 2006, was just about "all-in" in 2007 during the FDA's Advisory Committee meeting that okayed it, and watched in horror as the FDA then gave the company a Complete Response Letter (CRL) a month later.
I sold some over the next couple years, but was again an active investor in 2010 when they finally got approval. I sold some in the $50s, more in the $40s, and finally sold the very last amount (save one single Jan 2012 call option) around $35, last November. I stay on top of the company news, however, and consider myself a Dendreonaire.
It is with awe and a sickening feeling, then, to see the after hours cratering of the stock price, following the Q2 earnings call. A transcript of that call can be found here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/284445-dendreon-corp-s-ceo-discusses-q2-2011-results-earnings-call-transcript
Let me sum up the entire issue in one paragraph, if I may. Provenge costs $93,000 for a one month round of therapy (3 infusions). Prescribing doctors make about $6K for themselves, but have to "eat" the entire $93K on a credit line or their own resources until they get reimbursed by insurance/Medicare. Up until extremely late June, there was a question of whether Medicare would cover Provenge (and while it did get a determination for coverage, that fact isn't even posted on the proper website yet!). Thus, for cash flow purposes, few urology or oncology practices could prescribe more than 1 patient at a time. Moreover, due to manufacturing limitations and the scale/cost of the one approved plant through most of this period, the company was unwilling to push large scale scripts yet.
All of the preceding hopefully explains the carnage in the stock price. At the end of after hours trading, it was around $13.70 - down from a regular session closing price of $35!
So the proper question now is, what to do: buy, sell, or hold?
The price tomorrow? It could well be $10, or it could be $17.
I would suggest that if one has no position, and a holding period of a half year or more, this is an excellent time to buy, if within the range above.
If you own shares currently, I'd hold on, all else being equal.
I feel, given the facts known now, that the company will recover from this, and end the year 2011 over $20. It may be 2013 before we see the $40s again, but for an extremely long term p-o-v, I believe this is a solid company that should be a core position.
Regards,
Trond
Saturday, July 23, 2011
July options
Oops, neglected to update the options expiration on the Port24 last weekend!
I had four stocks with calls sold against them - DNDN, EXEL, NBIX, and PIP. Dendreon and Exelixis expired under the strike price, so I retain the shares. NBIX and PIP were called away (although I retain some extra PIP, as I did not sell calls against the entire position).
The Port positions are shown below; I have $35,397.31 in cash with a 20.5% annualized return as of 7/22/11.
I do expect Celsion to continue its run; HEAT enrollment and the 190th PFS event should occur within 3 weeks now. I intend (in the Port24) to start taking some profits around the $5 mark - I'd bought lots around $2.64 and $2.31.
Regards,
Trond
# / Ticker / (calls sold)
1500 ARQL (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2600 CLDX (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
300 DNDN (0)
1100 EXEL (0)
2000 MITI (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
2500 PIP (0)
1600 SGMO (0)
I had four stocks with calls sold against them - DNDN, EXEL, NBIX, and PIP. Dendreon and Exelixis expired under the strike price, so I retain the shares. NBIX and PIP were called away (although I retain some extra PIP, as I did not sell calls against the entire position).
The Port positions are shown below; I have $35,397.31 in cash with a 20.5% annualized return as of 7/22/11.
I do expect Celsion to continue its run; HEAT enrollment and the 190th PFS event should occur within 3 weeks now. I intend (in the Port24) to start taking some profits around the $5 mark - I'd bought lots around $2.64 and $2.31.
Regards,
Trond
# / Ticker / (calls sold)
1500 ARQL (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2600 CLDX (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
300 DNDN (0)
1100 EXEL (0)
2000 MITI (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
2500 PIP (0)
1600 SGMO (0)
Monday, June 20, 2011
Options expiration fallout
The composition of the Port has changed dramatically from just a couple weeks ago.
We bid adieu to Seattle Genetics (SGEN) last Friday, as I had sold $17.50 calls and it closed at $19.50. Since I bought it 3 1/2 months ago at $15, and sold $1.25 worth of premium I can't complain too much with the 21% total return.
This morning I took advantage of the cash on hand, buying an old friend and a special situation.
The Port now owns Dendreon (DNDN) again, at $38.16. I did, however, sell July $40 calls, expecting a lift from the CMS coverage and the upcoming Seal Beach plant approval.
I also bought a second load of Pharmathene (PIP) (6,000 shares at $2.42) and sold 60 July calls at $2.50. Those calls, however, had a premium of $0.30!! That is a 12% premium for one month... and too much for me to resist in the Port.
Notably, I also bought some PIP for myself in my real money account this morning. I did not sell calls against these.
I'm down to $4,400 cash in the Port, so until I either sell more calls or liquidate some stock, I'll be holding the following:
Shares .. Ticker.. (calls sold)
1500 ARQL (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2600 CLDX (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
300 DNDN (3)
1100 EXEL (0)
2000 MITI (0)
2000 NBIX (20)
7000 NNVC (0)
2500 PIP (0)
6000 PIP (60)
1600 SGMO (0)
Regards,
Trond
We bid adieu to Seattle Genetics (SGEN) last Friday, as I had sold $17.50 calls and it closed at $19.50. Since I bought it 3 1/2 months ago at $15, and sold $1.25 worth of premium I can't complain too much with the 21% total return.
This morning I took advantage of the cash on hand, buying an old friend and a special situation.
The Port now owns Dendreon (DNDN) again, at $38.16. I did, however, sell July $40 calls, expecting a lift from the CMS coverage and the upcoming Seal Beach plant approval.
I also bought a second load of Pharmathene (PIP) (6,000 shares at $2.42) and sold 60 July calls at $2.50. Those calls, however, had a premium of $0.30!! That is a 12% premium for one month... and too much for me to resist in the Port.
Notably, I also bought some PIP for myself in my real money account this morning. I did not sell calls against these.
I'm down to $4,400 cash in the Port, so until I either sell more calls or liquidate some stock, I'll be holding the following:
Shares .. Ticker.. (calls sold)
1500 ARQL (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2600 CLDX (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
300 DNDN (3)
1100 EXEL (0)
2000 MITI (0)
2000 NBIX (20)
7000 NNVC (0)
2500 PIP (0)
6000 PIP (60)
1600 SGMO (0)
Regards,
Trond
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Port 24 update
April options expiration came Friday and for the first time in three years my Port24 is without some Dendreon.
DNDN had a great run in the last month - moving from $32 to $42 - and my gamble that it wouldn't break $40 was a bad one. I will probably hold on to the cash for a few days to assess what I want to do. I really am not comfortable with the overall market but there are always places to put money to work.
PZG had a bad week - the first resource report came out and I feel was badly prepared-for by the company. I still look forward to a very good year for Paramount but it may be a couple months of sitting and waiting.
The Port's return is about 18% annualized, as of 4/15. In one month, it turns 3 years old! So I am lagging my desired return of 24% a year quite badly - by 6%! In my defense, for newer readers, I have made two stupid mistakes: 1) with Elan in not taking enormous profits when I could have, and 2) in neglecting the Port for about 9 of the 35 months I've been running it. Those nine months of "lost" covered call returns very well could have made up that 6%.
Even with the mistakes, I will concede that 18% is pretty good. And better, in comparison to the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq (QQQQ), I am handily beating the market in the same period. The SPY has returned -0.6% in the 35 month period while the QQQQ's are at 5.7% annualized. So I'm still beating the better of the two by 12.4% per year. That is respectable.
Cash $19,372.85 Position (calls against)
2600 CLDX (26)
2000 NBIX (20)
7000 NNVC (0)
7000 ONTY (70)
1600 DCTH (16)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
Regards,
Trond
DNDN had a great run in the last month - moving from $32 to $42 - and my gamble that it wouldn't break $40 was a bad one. I will probably hold on to the cash for a few days to assess what I want to do. I really am not comfortable with the overall market but there are always places to put money to work.
PZG had a bad week - the first resource report came out and I feel was badly prepared-for by the company. I still look forward to a very good year for Paramount but it may be a couple months of sitting and waiting.
The Port's return is about 18% annualized, as of 4/15. In one month, it turns 3 years old! So I am lagging my desired return of 24% a year quite badly - by 6%! In my defense, for newer readers, I have made two stupid mistakes: 1) with Elan in not taking enormous profits when I could have, and 2) in neglecting the Port for about 9 of the 35 months I've been running it. Those nine months of "lost" covered call returns very well could have made up that 6%.
Even with the mistakes, I will concede that 18% is pretty good. And better, in comparison to the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq (QQQQ), I am handily beating the market in the same period. The SPY has returned -0.6% in the 35 month period while the QQQQ's are at 5.7% annualized. So I'm still beating the better of the two by 12.4% per year. That is respectable.
Cash $19,372.85 Position (calls against)
2600 CLDX (26)
2000 NBIX (20)
7000 NNVC (0)
7000 ONTY (70)
1600 DCTH (16)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, April 7, 2011
More covered calls & Port24 update
Seeing as how option expiration is next week, I decided to get some premium this morning. DNDN Apr $40s for $0.38, DCTH May $9s for $0.50, and SGEN Jun $17.50 for $0.85. Nanoviricides (NNVC) is having a good week, up the $1.50s on more FluCide news. I actually sold a little in my real money portfolios, as I try to trade this one more actively than I sometimes do (this is in an IRA so I don't have to worry about taxes). If you have a 2 to 5 year holding time, this is still not a bad time to buy but I suspect it will be 10 to 20 cents lower in a month or two. The Port24 is back over 20% annualized returns... Dendreon's return to the high $30s as well as Nanoviricide's pop contributed. Celsion has been lagging but I expect within three months it will be the star of the show. I am loaded in CLSN in my real money accounts as well. Cash = $3,390.35 2600 CLDX (26) 400 DNDN (4) 2000 NBIX (20) 7000 NNVC (0) 7000 ONTY (70) 1600 DCTH (16) 3600 PZG (0) 9000 CLSN (0) 2000 MITI (0) 800 SGEN (8) Regards, Trond
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Portfolio strategies and March options expiration
Investing for a blog is slightly different than investing in your own real money portfolio. I try to keep things as true as possible to what actually happens -- commissions, fees, and whatever the bid/ask happens to be.
One difference is the bid/ask - the amount you can sell or buy a stock or option for. Let's look at Dendreon - on a day where the price is $32.79, that might entail a bid/ask of $32.79/32.80. You can sell it for 32.79 but have to buy it at 32.80. In a real world portfolio, you can enter a limit buy at $32.75 - if during the day the ask price falls to $32.75, the order fills and you've bought at a better price. You might not, however, get filled at all! I almost always enter limit orders so as to "game" a few cents on my entry and exit price. I do not have such a luxury in the Port24, since I wouldn't know if I ever would have gotten filled or not! And the volume comes into play also... on microcaps such as Celsion that may only trade 50,000 shares a day, a 4,000 buy can drive the ask price up by a few cents.
A couple cents here or there, even on a thousand shares, really is not a big deal - $10 or $20. Options, however, present a wholly different challenge. The bid/ask spread tends to be wider on low price or low volume stocks, and can be as large as 30 to 40 cents difference. A limit order here is MUCH more necessary and "gaming" the order is important. If the bid/ask is $0.25/0.45, a sell entered for $0.35 -- maybe even $0.40 -- might well be filled. You can easily gain an extra $20, 30, or 40 on a trade simply by keeping that in mind. On a $5,000 buy in for the stock, where you are expecting a 2% return on your covered call, an extra $25 raises your return percentage-wise by another half percent. Half a percent over 12 months is an extra 6% a year! Always enter limit orders on options!!
Another difference in the way a real vs. fake portfolio can be managed is the psychological factor. I have staked myself to a 24% return in the Port24 (something I am far short of at the moment) and being long Celsion for so long (heck, even Dendreon over the last year!) has hurt my performance when measured over an individual month or series of months. I refuse to sell calls for the most part because there is the chance for a really good movement in the share price coming up and I want to capture that. However, I have opportunity cost in the meantime of the covered call premiums foregone. And monthly, I have to report "underperformance" of my 2% a month return. There is always the temptation to do something "wrong" to make the monthly numbers look better! (This, by the way, is very much why I mistrust a lot of companies' quarterly earnings - there are many things they can do to fiddle around with a particular quarter's earnings... a one-time charge here, etc.) All I can do is remember why I am in a particular stock and stay true to it. In the long run, assuming I'm right on Celsion, a 100%+ return in a year looks better than 2% in each of 12 months.
For March's opex in the Port24, both Delcath and Seattle Genetics expired without being called. Delcath, of course, went horribly wrong a few weeks ago with the FDA not even accepting the filing of the NDA. I'm holding here, as European approval is also in the works and should cause a re-runup towards the end of the spring. SGEN could well bounce around a buck or two up or down; I will simply wait for a small bounce up and sell calls again.
One extra note about the Port24 - several weeks ago I announced the intention to "move" the assets to Zecco from Scottrade. Immediately afterwards, Zecco announced a pricing change, adding a few dimes to their stock and option commissions. While it is still cheaper than Scottrade and for a new money account I would certainly recommend Zecco, for this situation where I'd have to pay "transfer" charges I am just going to keep basng my buys and sells for now off Scottrade's commission costs. Having said that, please don't let such costs deter you from doing transfers in real money accounts - many brokerages will compensate you for the transfer charges as an inducement for your business!
Real money wise, I am coming close to being an idiot with Celsion. I have been buying all the way down from the low $3s through the $2.30s. A large part of me wishes I'd only now heard of it and had bought the entire stake here! We should finally see some movement in the next 1-8 weeks... culminating in a really nice runup by June awaiting full enrollment of the HEAT trial, and the interim calculation announcement. While I don't truly expect a successful interim and trial stop, the increased eyeballs and realization of the microscopic float should cause a share price move of several dollars.
Paramount Gold & Silver should be releasing one of their resource reports within weeks. Not knowing exactly what regions will be included makes it hard to predict share price movement, but suffice it to say over the next year I expect a double or more. That makes it worth hlding on, or adding here.
Regards,
Trond
One difference is the bid/ask - the amount you can sell or buy a stock or option for. Let's look at Dendreon - on a day where the price is $32.79, that might entail a bid/ask of $32.79/32.80. You can sell it for 32.79 but have to buy it at 32.80. In a real world portfolio, you can enter a limit buy at $32.75 - if during the day the ask price falls to $32.75, the order fills and you've bought at a better price. You might not, however, get filled at all! I almost always enter limit orders so as to "game" a few cents on my entry and exit price. I do not have such a luxury in the Port24, since I wouldn't know if I ever would have gotten filled or not! And the volume comes into play also... on microcaps such as Celsion that may only trade 50,000 shares a day, a 4,000 buy can drive the ask price up by a few cents.
A couple cents here or there, even on a thousand shares, really is not a big deal - $10 or $20. Options, however, present a wholly different challenge. The bid/ask spread tends to be wider on low price or low volume stocks, and can be as large as 30 to 40 cents difference. A limit order here is MUCH more necessary and "gaming" the order is important. If the bid/ask is $0.25/0.45, a sell entered for $0.35 -- maybe even $0.40 -- might well be filled. You can easily gain an extra $20, 30, or 40 on a trade simply by keeping that in mind. On a $5,000 buy in for the stock, where you are expecting a 2% return on your covered call, an extra $25 raises your return percentage-wise by another half percent. Half a percent over 12 months is an extra 6% a year! Always enter limit orders on options!!
Another difference in the way a real vs. fake portfolio can be managed is the psychological factor. I have staked myself to a 24% return in the Port24 (something I am far short of at the moment) and being long Celsion for so long (heck, even Dendreon over the last year!) has hurt my performance when measured over an individual month or series of months. I refuse to sell calls for the most part because there is the chance for a really good movement in the share price coming up and I want to capture that. However, I have opportunity cost in the meantime of the covered call premiums foregone. And monthly, I have to report "underperformance" of my 2% a month return. There is always the temptation to do something "wrong" to make the monthly numbers look better! (This, by the way, is very much why I mistrust a lot of companies' quarterly earnings - there are many things they can do to fiddle around with a particular quarter's earnings... a one-time charge here, etc.) All I can do is remember why I am in a particular stock and stay true to it. In the long run, assuming I'm right on Celsion, a 100%+ return in a year looks better than 2% in each of 12 months.
For March's opex in the Port24, both Delcath and Seattle Genetics expired without being called. Delcath, of course, went horribly wrong a few weeks ago with the FDA not even accepting the filing of the NDA. I'm holding here, as European approval is also in the works and should cause a re-runup towards the end of the spring. SGEN could well bounce around a buck or two up or down; I will simply wait for a small bounce up and sell calls again.
One extra note about the Port24 - several weeks ago I announced the intention to "move" the assets to Zecco from Scottrade. Immediately afterwards, Zecco announced a pricing change, adding a few dimes to their stock and option commissions. While it is still cheaper than Scottrade and for a new money account I would certainly recommend Zecco, for this situation where I'd have to pay "transfer" charges I am just going to keep basng my buys and sells for now off Scottrade's commission costs. Having said that, please don't let such costs deter you from doing transfers in real money accounts - many brokerages will compensate you for the transfer charges as an inducement for your business!
Real money wise, I am coming close to being an idiot with Celsion. I have been buying all the way down from the low $3s through the $2.30s. A large part of me wishes I'd only now heard of it and had bought the entire stake here! We should finally see some movement in the next 1-8 weeks... culminating in a really nice runup by June awaiting full enrollment of the HEAT trial, and the interim calculation announcement. While I don't truly expect a successful interim and trial stop, the increased eyeballs and realization of the microscopic float should cause a share price move of several dollars.
Paramount Gold & Silver should be releasing one of their resource reports within weeks. Not knowing exactly what regions will be included makes it hard to predict share price movement, but suffice it to say over the next year I expect a double or more. That makes it worth hlding on, or adding here.
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, March 10, 2011
CSLN and DNDN
I bought 4000 more shares of Celsion for the Port24 - this is only a (hopefully) quick trade as I just don't see hanging out sub $2.50 much more than a few more weeks. I also bought it in my real-money accounts this morning!
The real news of the morning was for Dendreon, even though the market is treating it with a yawn. The remaining 36 workstations at their NJ facility were approved by the FDA this morning -- which quadruples the amount of Provenge they can administer. It will be a gardual ramp up, rather than an immediate x4, but within two to four months all that capacity should be utilized.
They guided for $9-10M a month with the existing 12 stations, so we should be looking at $36M a month. later this year. That equates to $432M a year on a forward-looking basis... and does NOT include the additonal 72 workstations in GA and CA later this year. For calendar year 2013, after fully ramping up, they should be at $1.2B of sales.
Regards,
Trond
The real news of the morning was for Dendreon, even though the market is treating it with a yawn. The remaining 36 workstations at their NJ facility were approved by the FDA this morning -- which quadruples the amount of Provenge they can administer. It will be a gardual ramp up, rather than an immediate x4, but within two to four months all that capacity should be utilized.
They guided for $9-10M a month with the existing 12 stations, so we should be looking at $36M a month. later this year. That equates to $432M a year on a forward-looking basis... and does NOT include the additonal 72 workstations in GA and CA later this year. For calendar year 2013, after fully ramping up, they should be at $1.2B of sales.
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Dendreon helped the Port24...
Well, the Port is "ta-da!" back where it should be. That is, back to 24% returns, annualized.
Dendreon was the prime mover, of course, and I yesterday sold 500 of the 900 shares the Port held. With the proceeds I bought 2,000 MannKind (MNKD) at $6.93 and sold 20 June $8 calls against them for $55 each.
I promised a brief writeup on MannKind but am lacking in time today. So suffice it to say MNKD is another stock I'm buying in my real-money IRA - selling some calls and holding most long through the summer.
Regards,
Trond
Dendreon was the prime mover, of course, and I yesterday sold 500 of the 900 shares the Port held. With the proceeds I bought 2,000 MannKind (MNKD) at $6.93 and sold 20 June $8 calls against them for $55 each.
I promised a brief writeup on MannKind but am lacking in time today. So suffice it to say MNKD is another stock I'm buying in my real-money IRA - selling some calls and holding most long through the summer.
Regards,
Trond
Monday, May 3, 2010
Watchlists
I recommend that everyone who is interested in individual stocks maintain one or more watchlists.
This is simply a list of companies that you are interested in. Most brokerages allow you to maintain a list, or Yahoo Finance! does quite nicely. If you get into the habit of checking in every day, you'll see a few benefits.
For one, you will hear news about your stocks very quickly. Of course, most people don't live and breathe the market, and conventional wisdom has it that one should not do this as it leads to that most evil practice of all - day trading. Ha!
Of course, conventional wisdom also counsels one to place your long term dollars in mutual funds and let the experts do their thing. As you are reading this, gentle reader, I assume you probably had an internal "Ha!" go off yourself.
It's usually not necessary to know news of a stock that is important to you immediately; very few things will be life and death to a corporation. Biotech may be the exception - trial news can kill or revive those very quickly, of course. But being aware of something at least gives you the power of choice. Here's an example: Oncothyreon (ONTY) received the unwelcome news a couple months ago that Stimuvax trials were being halted on safety concerns. It dropped immediately, of course, but kept dropping some more over the next few days. If this news spooked you, you at least had the chance the next day to sell at a higher price than the succeeding days would have allowed you.
Immersing yourself in the news also mean you are more in tune with your choices. You see earnings announcements, insider buys or sells, product information and the like; and hopefully you begin to understand the company somewhat better over time.
The other main benefit of a watchlist is that you begin to have an appreciation for the daily swings in price. I am not endorsing very active trading (although not disparaging it either) - but knowing that a stock you are strongly interested in is at a low point for the year, with no appreciable bad news or other information, may give you the slight extra nudge to become a shareholder. Entry price does matter - even in the long term, buying a stock at $9 instead of $10.50 will mean several extra percentage points of gain, or allow you to buy more shares than you could otherwise have done. And over the course of months, a swing of a couple dollars in price WILL happen.
I desperately need to update my blog watchlist: JAV is being bought out at $2.19 (a nice gain from my rec about 16 months ago at $1-ish), SGMO probably won't see sub $5 again, and Dendreon almost certainly will never be available at my latest upgrade of under $30.
My additions will include MannKind, Oncothyreon, Paramount Gold, Lexicon, and Opexa. I hope to talk of some of these soon in future posts. MannKind, Oncothyreon, and Paramount are probably the most timely buys; Arena and Elan would be next.
On a final note: I sold some small amounts of Dendreon over the last couple days but intend on holding the majority for the absolutely long haul. The guy who sold Microsoft for 3 or 4 times his stake looked really smart in the short term, but I believe this puppy has legs. :-)
Regards,
Trond
This is simply a list of companies that you are interested in. Most brokerages allow you to maintain a list, or Yahoo Finance! does quite nicely. If you get into the habit of checking in every day, you'll see a few benefits.
For one, you will hear news about your stocks very quickly. Of course, most people don't live and breathe the market, and conventional wisdom has it that one should not do this as it leads to that most evil practice of all - day trading. Ha!
Of course, conventional wisdom also counsels one to place your long term dollars in mutual funds and let the experts do their thing. As you are reading this, gentle reader, I assume you probably had an internal "Ha!" go off yourself.
It's usually not necessary to know news of a stock that is important to you immediately; very few things will be life and death to a corporation. Biotech may be the exception - trial news can kill or revive those very quickly, of course. But being aware of something at least gives you the power of choice. Here's an example: Oncothyreon (ONTY) received the unwelcome news a couple months ago that Stimuvax trials were being halted on safety concerns. It dropped immediately, of course, but kept dropping some more over the next few days. If this news spooked you, you at least had the chance the next day to sell at a higher price than the succeeding days would have allowed you.
Immersing yourself in the news also mean you are more in tune with your choices. You see earnings announcements, insider buys or sells, product information and the like; and hopefully you begin to understand the company somewhat better over time.
The other main benefit of a watchlist is that you begin to have an appreciation for the daily swings in price. I am not endorsing very active trading (although not disparaging it either) - but knowing that a stock you are strongly interested in is at a low point for the year, with no appreciable bad news or other information, may give you the slight extra nudge to become a shareholder. Entry price does matter - even in the long term, buying a stock at $9 instead of $10.50 will mean several extra percentage points of gain, or allow you to buy more shares than you could otherwise have done. And over the course of months, a swing of a couple dollars in price WILL happen.
I desperately need to update my blog watchlist: JAV is being bought out at $2.19 (a nice gain from my rec about 16 months ago at $1-ish), SGMO probably won't see sub $5 again, and Dendreon almost certainly will never be available at my latest upgrade of under $30.
My additions will include MannKind, Oncothyreon, Paramount Gold, Lexicon, and Opexa. I hope to talk of some of these soon in future posts. MannKind, Oncothyreon, and Paramount are probably the most timely buys; Arena and Elan would be next.
On a final note: I sold some small amounts of Dendreon over the last couple days but intend on holding the majority for the absolutely long haul. The guy who sold Microsoft for 3 or 4 times his stake looked really smart in the short term, but I believe this puppy has legs. :-)
Regards,
Trond
Friday, April 30, 2010
Dendreon's conference call
Yesterday at 11:30 PDT, Dendreon hosted a conference call to discuss Provenge's approval. You can access a replay at www.Dendreon.com, and I urge you to listen if you want to continue holding your shares long term, as I intend to do with a majority of mine.
Dendreon now has to morph from an R&D company to a commercial enterprise. They seem to have a good start and an extremely capable management staff. A few highlights frm the call:
Pricing: They announced an infusion will be $31,000. That means a standard regimen of treatment will be $93,000, to the high side of previously assumed guidance.
No Rest-Of-World partnership: they truly intend to go it alone. While this has the potential for pitfalls, in the long term if they avoid a buyout they truly could be the "next Amgen" of biotech.
People will probably comment on the 2,000 patients they said can treat i the next twelve months, but how many will have caught the very optimistic comment that following all three plants coming on line at 100%, they "can meet demand"?
All in all, a great call. Sell some if you must, but hold on to some. I think there are great things in store for this not-so-little company.
Regards,
Trond
Dendreon now has to morph from an R&D company to a commercial enterprise. They seem to have a good start and an extremely capable management staff. A few highlights frm the call:
Pricing: They announced an infusion will be $31,000. That means a standard regimen of treatment will be $93,000, to the high side of previously assumed guidance.
No Rest-Of-World partnership: they truly intend to go it alone. While this has the potential for pitfalls, in the long term if they avoid a buyout they truly could be the "next Amgen" of biotech.
People will probably comment on the 2,000 patients they said can treat i the next twelve months, but how many will have caught the very optimistic comment that following all three plants coming on line at 100%, they "can meet demand"?
All in all, a great call. Sell some if you must, but hold on to some. I think there are great things in store for this not-so-little company.
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Provenge Approved!!!!
Trading halted - Reuters and CNBC saying approved.
What a long, long road.
Regards,
Trond
What a long, long road.
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Port 24 update and other news
First some news ...
I have not decided exactly how or when, but I am going to switch out my Port24 (fake money, albeit serious thought) holdings for one of my real life IRAs. It is getting to be too much of a headache to actually manage another portfolio that does not immediately affect my new worth.
This is sad for one specific reason: this was the one portfolio where I tried to focus as exclusively on covered calls as possible. I see that as "safe", even with the priority on pre-earnings biotechs. On the plus side, you'll get to see exactly how I think and react on stocks I own and am thinking about. I do not think I will go to the lengths of posting every move before actually trading; it is my real money and sometimes I will want to make the trade ASAP. I will think more about this over a few weeks and let you know. Feedback is ALWAYS welcome.
Dendreon announced another BIG hiring this morning. Varun Nanda has joined the management team as SVP of Global Commercial Operations. Mr. Nanda comes from Roche/Genentech, where he brought Avastin into commercialization.
I do not see a Rest Of World partnership for Dendreon anymore... with Mr. Nanda and Hans Bishop on board they look ready to market Provenge themselves, worldwide. May 1, and probable Provenge approval, is less than a month away!
Port24:
A fair amount of movement this morning!
I sold 1500 ALTH ($$8.36) and 1000 MELA ($7.32), while buying 500 more Dendreon ($39.11), 7000 PZG ($1.44), and 3500 VICL ($3.45). I sold 29 $5 Jul calls against ARNA, and 5 Apr $40s against the DNDN.
Allos had a nice couple days this week, adding almost $1. It is time to take the gains. I *think* they will have great news in Q2, from an ongoing trial, but in biotech, you take some off the table when you get some gains. I had bought these at $6.68 in October 2009, and sold some calls against them, so I definitely had a winner here.
MELA is the opposite, although I sold so many calls that the loss is not as bad. The FDA delayed their application by 180 days recently, and it fell 20%. I may just get back in, later, but I see this as "dead money" for 3 months.
The 500 Dendreon is just a 8 day play for the almost 3% of option premium. I'd LOVE for Dendreon to close on 4/16 under $40 so I can keep the shares, though!
ARNA will have it's FDA PDUFA date on October 22. The July calls net me a little premium (6% for less than 4 months) while I wait. And heck, with the stock at $3.16, if I "lose" them at $5 I will not be crying!
The two new buys are VICL and PZG.
PZG (Paramount Mining) is a black sheep here, being neither a biotech, nor optionable. A gold exploration company, it is strictly a 2-5 month buy for straight-up capital appreciation. I will talk about this one more later, suffice it to say I have some in my real money IRA as well.
VICL (Vical) has a great pipeline and should have some news in the summer/fall that will allow me to sell some $5 or even $7.50 calls later in the year for some juicy premiums.
That makes the Port now worth $130,206, or a 30% return. Annualized, it is only 15.9%, well shy of my target. On the plus side, the S&P and Nasdaq indices have annualized returns over the same period of -6.75% and 9.5% respectively, so I am beating them. In a month and a week, the Port turns 2!
Regards,
Trond
I have not decided exactly how or when, but I am going to switch out my Port24 (fake money, albeit serious thought) holdings for one of my real life IRAs. It is getting to be too much of a headache to actually manage another portfolio that does not immediately affect my new worth.
This is sad for one specific reason: this was the one portfolio where I tried to focus as exclusively on covered calls as possible. I see that as "safe", even with the priority on pre-earnings biotechs. On the plus side, you'll get to see exactly how I think and react on stocks I own and am thinking about. I do not think I will go to the lengths of posting every move before actually trading; it is my real money and sometimes I will want to make the trade ASAP. I will think more about this over a few weeks and let you know. Feedback is ALWAYS welcome.
Dendreon announced another BIG hiring this morning. Varun Nanda has joined the management team as SVP of Global Commercial Operations. Mr. Nanda comes from Roche/Genentech, where he brought Avastin into commercialization.
I do not see a Rest Of World partnership for Dendreon anymore... with Mr. Nanda and Hans Bishop on board they look ready to market Provenge themselves, worldwide. May 1, and probable Provenge approval, is less than a month away!
Port24:
A fair amount of movement this morning!
I sold 1500 ALTH ($$8.36) and 1000 MELA ($7.32), while buying 500 more Dendreon ($39.11), 7000 PZG ($1.44), and 3500 VICL ($3.45). I sold 29 $5 Jul calls against ARNA, and 5 Apr $40s against the DNDN.
Allos had a nice couple days this week, adding almost $1. It is time to take the gains. I *think* they will have great news in Q2, from an ongoing trial, but in biotech, you take some off the table when you get some gains. I had bought these at $6.68 in October 2009, and sold some calls against them, so I definitely had a winner here.
MELA is the opposite, although I sold so many calls that the loss is not as bad. The FDA delayed their application by 180 days recently, and it fell 20%. I may just get back in, later, but I see this as "dead money" for 3 months.
The 500 Dendreon is just a 8 day play for the almost 3% of option premium. I'd LOVE for Dendreon to close on 4/16 under $40 so I can keep the shares, though!
ARNA will have it's FDA PDUFA date on October 22. The July calls net me a little premium (6% for less than 4 months) while I wait. And heck, with the stock at $3.16, if I "lose" them at $5 I will not be crying!
The two new buys are VICL and PZG.
PZG (Paramount Mining) is a black sheep here, being neither a biotech, nor optionable. A gold exploration company, it is strictly a 2-5 month buy for straight-up capital appreciation. I will talk about this one more later, suffice it to say I have some in my real money IRA as well.
VICL (Vical) has a great pipeline and should have some news in the summer/fall that will allow me to sell some $5 or even $7.50 calls later in the year for some juicy premiums.
That makes the Port now worth $130,206, or a 30% return. Annualized, it is only 15.9%, well shy of my target. On the plus side, the S&P and Nasdaq indices have annualized returns over the same period of -6.75% and 9.5% respectively, so I am beating them. In a month and a week, the Port turns 2!
Regards,
Trond
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Port Update
Sold the 4000 GNVC, as planned yesterday, and at $2.88. It is higher today, and it killed me to do it, but I really do want stocks that can have calls sold against them, in the Port. I mostly want to make money here, so if I see something enticing enough, I will buy non-optionable stocks, but the ground rules are there for a reason!
I looked at the other holdings of the Port this morning and nothing appeals to me in terms of selling calls. I have a bunch of cash, and Oncothyreon (ONTY) happens to be a watchlist stock that had bad news this morning. I bought 3,000 shares at $3.41 (and 1k in my real-world IRA at $3.45, earlier) - I'll let the share price shake out a little and then sell calls against them.
So now the Port is comprised of
2000 AOB
2000 NBIX
1600 ELN
400 DNDN
4900 ARNA
2500 SGMO
1000 MELA
200 AMAG
1500 ALTH
3000 ONTY
with $21,585 of cash.
I'm at a 30.8% return in nearly two years, a 16.6% annualized rate. The S&P 500 over that time has returned -7.3% and the Nasdaq has returned 9.3%.
Regards,
Trond
I looked at the other holdings of the Port this morning and nothing appeals to me in terms of selling calls. I have a bunch of cash, and Oncothyreon (ONTY) happens to be a watchlist stock that had bad news this morning. I bought 3,000 shares at $3.41 (and 1k in my real-world IRA at $3.45, earlier) - I'll let the share price shake out a little and then sell calls against them.
So now the Port is comprised of
2000 AOB
2000 NBIX
1600 ELN
400 DNDN
4900 ARNA
2500 SGMO
1000 MELA
200 AMAG
1500 ALTH
3000 ONTY
with $21,585 of cash.
I'm at a 30.8% return in nearly two years, a 16.6% annualized rate. The S&P 500 over that time has returned -7.3% and the Nasdaq has returned 9.3%.
Regards,
Trond
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Port update - options expiration
Quick summary of the Port, along with GenVec update:
On Friday, the Port had all 2000 ProGenics (PGNX) called away at $5, and the Elan calls expired worthless, allowing me to keep the premium and the shares. We're back to above 17% annualized return, still well shy of the 24 I am aiming for. I still feel it is doable, if I just put some time back into this Port. I have only been selling calls on 1 to 3 holdings a month, where I should be turning 100% of the holdings. I'll be selling the Genvec this coming week, since it does not offer options and I'm up over 10% already, having been in it for only a month. Time to take that profit and buy something I can sell calls against!
GenVec should be announcing the interim PACT trial results within 4 weeks now. On January 15th they said 10 to 12 weeks, and Friday 3/19/10 was exactly 9 weeks. While they may announce this coming week, both their annual earnings call and the recent Roth presentation suggested it could spill over into April so I would put more faith into it happening right around the first week of April.
In my real money IRA, I have an insane amount tied up in both Dendreon and Genvec - something like 85% of the total value. It has served me well, as the majority of Dendreon was bought under $6 (now $35) and my Genvec average basis is around $1.25 (now $2.80). I am however, finally at the point where I'll be selling at least a third of my GNVC over the next week or so, and may even dent my DNDN by 10% or so. I am far more confident that Dendreon will get approval, but at this price (mid 30s) I just do not see the return that I saw at the mid $20s we were at only a couple months ago. Genvec, at a little below $3, is also a MUCH different creature risk/return wise, than it was at the $0.77 I started buying at. The upcoming data release is a short term make-or-break event; it could go down (I honestly don't see it going below $1.50) on so-so data, but it could spike as much as another $7-10 on statistically significant data. There is a "reasonable" chance of stat-sig results - say 20-30% - but I am not risking 40+% of my net worth on a 20-30% chance of a home run. Please note that everyone's personal sense of risk vs. reward is vastly different - I AM in effect saying I'm okay with risking ~25% of my net worth!
This is because I already have a two bagger on Genvec - the most likely worse case scenario brings me back to a only slight average gain. I contrast this to the results, if excellent, and it makes sense for me to hold about 2/3 of what I have now, through the data release. For someone buying in now, it would be a greatly different risk/reward calculation.
Please also note that IF GenVec does drop, it very likely could be because the market is disappointed in the data not being excellent, and NOT because the data is bad. At the 92nd event - the first interim look) the hazard ratio was already .753 - the lower from 1.0 the better. This would have been a very good result, but investors were spooked because at 24 months, there was no apparent drug benefit. Missed was the fact that only three patients were still alive and uncensored, and one of those was in the placebo arm. Thus the placebo curve matched the drug-arm curve. As this interim look, at 184 deaths, most of those censored patients will have died, which will "normalize" the placebo curve and probably lower the hazard ratio even further. ANYTHING that relieves the worry about the 24 month death rate and shows improving hazard ratio beyond the .753 already seen, will vastly increase the chances of statistical significance at the final trial calculation. If the data is like this, but Mr. Market is disappointed, this could be the buy of a lifetime - with only a 18-24 month holding period until fruition. Heck - I went through this with Dendreon already from 2007 - 2009, and was rewarded with a $4 stock going to $25 (and currently $35, with a probable $40-45 in May).
Next post: more buy candidates, with the cash I now have in hand!
Regards,
Trond
On Friday, the Port had all 2000 ProGenics (PGNX) called away at $5, and the Elan calls expired worthless, allowing me to keep the premium and the shares. We're back to above 17% annualized return, still well shy of the 24 I am aiming for. I still feel it is doable, if I just put some time back into this Port. I have only been selling calls on 1 to 3 holdings a month, where I should be turning 100% of the holdings. I'll be selling the Genvec this coming week, since it does not offer options and I'm up over 10% already, having been in it for only a month. Time to take that profit and buy something I can sell calls against!
GenVec should be announcing the interim PACT trial results within 4 weeks now. On January 15th they said 10 to 12 weeks, and Friday 3/19/10 was exactly 9 weeks. While they may announce this coming week, both their annual earnings call and the recent Roth presentation suggested it could spill over into April so I would put more faith into it happening right around the first week of April.
In my real money IRA, I have an insane amount tied up in both Dendreon and Genvec - something like 85% of the total value. It has served me well, as the majority of Dendreon was bought under $6 (now $35) and my Genvec average basis is around $1.25 (now $2.80). I am however, finally at the point where I'll be selling at least a third of my GNVC over the next week or so, and may even dent my DNDN by 10% or so. I am far more confident that Dendreon will get approval, but at this price (mid 30s) I just do not see the return that I saw at the mid $20s we were at only a couple months ago. Genvec, at a little below $3, is also a MUCH different creature risk/return wise, than it was at the $0.77 I started buying at. The upcoming data release is a short term make-or-break event; it could go down (I honestly don't see it going below $1.50) on so-so data, but it could spike as much as another $7-10 on statistically significant data. There is a "reasonable" chance of stat-sig results - say 20-30% - but I am not risking 40+% of my net worth on a 20-30% chance of a home run. Please note that everyone's personal sense of risk vs. reward is vastly different - I AM in effect saying I'm okay with risking ~25% of my net worth!
This is because I already have a two bagger on Genvec - the most likely worse case scenario brings me back to a only slight average gain. I contrast this to the results, if excellent, and it makes sense for me to hold about 2/3 of what I have now, through the data release. For someone buying in now, it would be a greatly different risk/reward calculation.
Please also note that IF GenVec does drop, it very likely could be because the market is disappointed in the data not being excellent, and NOT because the data is bad. At the 92nd event - the first interim look) the hazard ratio was already .753 - the lower from 1.0 the better. This would have been a very good result, but investors were spooked because at 24 months, there was no apparent drug benefit. Missed was the fact that only three patients were still alive and uncensored, and one of those was in the placebo arm. Thus the placebo curve matched the drug-arm curve. As this interim look, at 184 deaths, most of those censored patients will have died, which will "normalize" the placebo curve and probably lower the hazard ratio even further. ANYTHING that relieves the worry about the 24 month death rate and shows improving hazard ratio beyond the .753 already seen, will vastly increase the chances of statistical significance at the final trial calculation. If the data is like this, but Mr. Market is disappointed, this could be the buy of a lifetime - with only a 18-24 month holding period until fruition. Heck - I went through this with Dendreon already from 2007 - 2009, and was rewarded with a $4 stock going to $25 (and currently $35, with a probable $40-45 in May).
Next post: more buy candidates, with the cash I now have in hand!
Regards,
Trond
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Port 24
Well, I'm back to my old bad habits, and only posting about the Port. I do have a writeup from the Dendreon conference call last night, that I will post tomorrow.
Portfolio 24
300 Dendreon and 1000 RMTI were called away from me last Friday. I bought 4000 GNVC today, at $2.42. Cash on hand now $10,058, and the Port is worth 125,144.
I am now as excited about GenVec as I was about Dendreon. In my real life IRA, I am about 50/50 in these two, with just a few others in small amounts. Both will have large events in the next 5 to 9 weeks.
GNVC may not, and probably will not, have a statistically significant result from the upcoming interim look. However, it should let us see how it will pan out. Having an entry even here in the $2s will look really good in 2 years, if you have that kind of a time horizon. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that before results are announced, we'll see $3.25 or $3.50 in this stock, giving you a 33 to 50% return in a month. I bought 1000 shares in my Roth today, in fact, at $2.41, with such an aim in mind.
Regards,
Trond
Portfolio 24
300 Dendreon and 1000 RMTI were called away from me last Friday. I bought 4000 GNVC today, at $2.42. Cash on hand now $10,058, and the Port is worth 125,144.
I am now as excited about GenVec as I was about Dendreon. In my real life IRA, I am about 50/50 in these two, with just a few others in small amounts. Both will have large events in the next 5 to 9 weeks.
GNVC may not, and probably will not, have a statistically significant result from the upcoming interim look. However, it should let us see how it will pan out. Having an entry even here in the $2s will look really good in 2 years, if you have that kind of a time horizon. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that before results are announced, we'll see $3.25 or $3.50 in this stock, giving you a 33 to 50% return in a month. I bought 1000 shares in my Roth today, in fact, at $2.41, with such an aim in mind.
Regards,
Trond
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Port 24 and assorted biotech news
Port 24 update:
The only January options I had sold were 10 MELA $10 calls, and they were exercised, with the stock at $11.05 last Friday.
With that cash, I bought 300 more Dendreon shares today, and sold 3 Feb $32 calls against them for $0.89 per share.
I am living by my resolution to be a little more active in the Port! I also sold the following calls today:
16 ELN March $9s for $0.30
15 SGMO Feb $7.50s for $0.25
10 MELA Feb $12.50s for $0.20
2 AMAG Feb $55s for $0.50
I almost sold calls against ALTH - but I feel there is a little more room beneath the stock before selling calls. AOB needs to climb closer to $5 to make it worth selling calls, and NBIX at $2.50 is not satisfactory to sell the $2.50s, and the $5s are not worth anything yet.
The Port 24 thus has the following stocks (covered calls in parentheses)
1500 ALTH
200 AMAG (2)
2000 AOB
4900 ARNA (24)
700 DNDN (3)
1600 ELN (16)
1000 MELA (10)
2000 NBIX
2000 PGNX (20)
1000 RMTI (10)
2500 SGMO (15)
.. with cash of $2,680. This gives me a port value of about $132,500 and a 19.3% annualized return. I'm getting closer to my 24% return, again!
Stocks:
Genvec released a PR that they have licensed their hearing loss pre-clinical work to Novartis, for $5M plus milestones and royalties. They also hit the 184 death interim trigger in the PACT trial on Friday, and will have data in 10 to 12 weeks. I'm nearly as excited about Genvec as I was about Dendreon, but caution that the risk/reward is much slighter here at $2 than at $0.76 when I first mentioned it here a few months ago. I was still buying in my real-world IRA at $1.70, but am probably done for now.
Dendreon had an interview published in the Xconomy online magazine with the new COO Hans Bishop. It is a MUST READ, here: http://www.xconomy.com/seattle/2010/01/19/dendreons-new-operations-man-hans-bishop-aims-to-keep-provenge-trains-running-on-time/
Sangamo had good results (albeit from one patient, in a Phase I trial) here: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sangamo-BioSciences-Announces-prnews-1693198508.html?x=0&.v=1
Regards,
Trond
The only January options I had sold were 10 MELA $10 calls, and they were exercised, with the stock at $11.05 last Friday.
With that cash, I bought 300 more Dendreon shares today, and sold 3 Feb $32 calls against them for $0.89 per share.
I am living by my resolution to be a little more active in the Port! I also sold the following calls today:
16 ELN March $9s for $0.30
15 SGMO Feb $7.50s for $0.25
10 MELA Feb $12.50s for $0.20
2 AMAG Feb $55s for $0.50
I almost sold calls against ALTH - but I feel there is a little more room beneath the stock before selling calls. AOB needs to climb closer to $5 to make it worth selling calls, and NBIX at $2.50 is not satisfactory to sell the $2.50s, and the $5s are not worth anything yet.
The Port 24 thus has the following stocks (covered calls in parentheses)
1500 ALTH
200 AMAG (2)
2000 AOB
4900 ARNA (24)
700 DNDN (3)
1600 ELN (16)
1000 MELA (10)
2000 NBIX
2000 PGNX (20)
1000 RMTI (10)
2500 SGMO (15)
.. with cash of $2,680. This gives me a port value of about $132,500 and a 19.3% annualized return. I'm getting closer to my 24% return, again!
Stocks:
Genvec released a PR that they have licensed their hearing loss pre-clinical work to Novartis, for $5M plus milestones and royalties. They also hit the 184 death interim trigger in the PACT trial on Friday, and will have data in 10 to 12 weeks. I'm nearly as excited about Genvec as I was about Dendreon, but caution that the risk/reward is much slighter here at $2 than at $0.76 when I first mentioned it here a few months ago. I was still buying in my real-world IRA at $1.70, but am probably done for now.
Dendreon had an interview published in the Xconomy online magazine with the new COO Hans Bishop. It is a MUST READ, here: http://www.xconomy.com/seattle/2010/01/19/dendreons-new-operations-man-hans-bishop-aims-to-keep-provenge-trains-running-on-time/
Sangamo had good results (albeit from one patient, in a Phase I trial) here: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sangamo-BioSciences-Announces-prnews-1693198508.html?x=0&.v=1
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Port 24 update, Dendreon, and GenVec
I neglected to mention yesterday that I bought 1000 shares of Rockwell Medical Technologies (RMTI) at $7.73 in the Port24. I turned and sold February $7.50 calls for $0.85 each.
I wanted to clarify in my end-of-year post that although my annualized rate of return in the Port24 is only 13%, the gross return was about 25% - we've gone from $100,000 to $125K in 19 months. I took the time to see what benchmarks might be like: the S&P in the same time frame had a -10.5% annualized return (including dividends) and the Nasdaq was 8.1%.
GenVec and Dendreon both received an opening nod and a "buy" recommendation from Roth Capital Partners this morning. Further upgrades will probably be coming shortly.
GenVec in particular is nice to see at $1.60+ this morning as it officially constitutes a double from my initial rec back in October ($0.76 was my first buy in my real-world IRA). For the record, I was still buying yesterday at $1.37. With the rise and my further buys, it is now actually my second largest holding (after Dendreon) and at this rate might be the largest in a couple days... :-)
Regards,
Trond
I wanted to clarify in my end-of-year post that although my annualized rate of return in the Port24 is only 13%, the gross return was about 25% - we've gone from $100,000 to $125K in 19 months. I took the time to see what benchmarks might be like: the S&P in the same time frame had a -10.5% annualized return (including dividends) and the Nasdaq was 8.1%.
GenVec and Dendreon both received an opening nod and a "buy" recommendation from Roth Capital Partners this morning. Further upgrades will probably be coming shortly.
GenVec in particular is nice to see at $1.60+ this morning as it officially constitutes a double from my initial rec back in October ($0.76 was my first buy in my real-world IRA). For the record, I was still buying yesterday at $1.37. With the rise and my further buys, it is now actually my second largest holding (after Dendreon) and at this rate might be the largest in a couple days... :-)
Regards,
Trond
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Happy New Year
Thanks to all who read this - I have not been good about keeping up posting, or even the Port 24. I shall strive to do better in the new year, as I want to bring my returns back up to the 24% level.
I am closing out the year with a few calls being sold in the Port. 24 Arena Feb $4s, 10 Electro-Optical Jan $10s, and 20 Progenics Feb $5s ... all with a monthly return of about 4%.
I will be ending 2009 with an annualized rate of return of about 13% - good, but far short of my target. I do take comfort in the fact that I ignored the Port for long stretches of time and would have made a few more percentage points on the calls I neglected to sell.
My worst move this year was to not sell ARNA on the spikes. That cost me around $20,000. Of course I would not have sold at exactly the high point, but I really should have lightened up. On the plus side, I did exactly that with BioCryst - buying low, selling high, and selling a lot of calls in the interim. Dendreon was the clear winner this year - going from around $5 to the current $26.
Next year should see Dendreon achieve FDA approval for Provenge, Electro-Optical gain approval for MelaFund, partnerships for Arena and Neurocrine, and significant appreciation for Elan, Amag, and Allos. I find myself hoping that GenVec starts trading options as I would love to have some GNVC in the Port.
May everyone have a fun and safe New Year!
Regards,
Trond
I am closing out the year with a few calls being sold in the Port. 24 Arena Feb $4s, 10 Electro-Optical Jan $10s, and 20 Progenics Feb $5s ... all with a monthly return of about 4%.
I will be ending 2009 with an annualized rate of return of about 13% - good, but far short of my target. I do take comfort in the fact that I ignored the Port for long stretches of time and would have made a few more percentage points on the calls I neglected to sell.
My worst move this year was to not sell ARNA on the spikes. That cost me around $20,000. Of course I would not have sold at exactly the high point, but I really should have lightened up. On the plus side, I did exactly that with BioCryst - buying low, selling high, and selling a lot of calls in the interim. Dendreon was the clear winner this year - going from around $5 to the current $26.
Next year should see Dendreon achieve FDA approval for Provenge, Electro-Optical gain approval for MelaFund, partnerships for Arena and Neurocrine, and significant appreciation for Elan, Amag, and Allos. I find myself hoping that GenVec starts trading options as I would love to have some GNVC in the Port.
May everyone have a fun and safe New Year!
Regards,
Trond
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