MNKD received a CRL yesterday for Afrezza. I was almost all out here, but was truly hoping for and expecting an approval. Fortunately it appears that most of what the FDA is asking for can be provided within the next year or so. The stock price was only knocked down to the $5 in today's trading which I consider fair for the moment. I would expect it to come down some more in the couple months, and if it does go into the $3s or $4s I would be a buyer again.
I bought 3,600 PZG at $3.12 in the Port today; no options offered here but the price is simply too low for what is expected in their resource report sometime in Q1 2011. Hence this is only a trade, with a defined time limit of about 3 months.
In my real money accounts, I bought PZG and CLSN today. CLSN at $2.78 is simply irresistable, and is now my largest holding.
Regards,
Trond
Showing posts with label MannKind. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MannKind. Show all posts
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Dendreon helped the Port24...
Well, the Port is "ta-da!" back where it should be. That is, back to 24% returns, annualized.
Dendreon was the prime mover, of course, and I yesterday sold 500 of the 900 shares the Port held. With the proceeds I bought 2,000 MannKind (MNKD) at $6.93 and sold 20 June $8 calls against them for $55 each.
I promised a brief writeup on MannKind but am lacking in time today. So suffice it to say MNKD is another stock I'm buying in my real-money IRA - selling some calls and holding most long through the summer.
Regards,
Trond
Dendreon was the prime mover, of course, and I yesterday sold 500 of the 900 shares the Port held. With the proceeds I bought 2,000 MannKind (MNKD) at $6.93 and sold 20 June $8 calls against them for $55 each.
I promised a brief writeup on MannKind but am lacking in time today. So suffice it to say MNKD is another stock I'm buying in my real-money IRA - selling some calls and holding most long through the summer.
Regards,
Trond
Monday, May 3, 2010
Watchlists
I recommend that everyone who is interested in individual stocks maintain one or more watchlists.
This is simply a list of companies that you are interested in. Most brokerages allow you to maintain a list, or Yahoo Finance! does quite nicely. If you get into the habit of checking in every day, you'll see a few benefits.
For one, you will hear news about your stocks very quickly. Of course, most people don't live and breathe the market, and conventional wisdom has it that one should not do this as it leads to that most evil practice of all - day trading. Ha!
Of course, conventional wisdom also counsels one to place your long term dollars in mutual funds and let the experts do their thing. As you are reading this, gentle reader, I assume you probably had an internal "Ha!" go off yourself.
It's usually not necessary to know news of a stock that is important to you immediately; very few things will be life and death to a corporation. Biotech may be the exception - trial news can kill or revive those very quickly, of course. But being aware of something at least gives you the power of choice. Here's an example: Oncothyreon (ONTY) received the unwelcome news a couple months ago that Stimuvax trials were being halted on safety concerns. It dropped immediately, of course, but kept dropping some more over the next few days. If this news spooked you, you at least had the chance the next day to sell at a higher price than the succeeding days would have allowed you.
Immersing yourself in the news also mean you are more in tune with your choices. You see earnings announcements, insider buys or sells, product information and the like; and hopefully you begin to understand the company somewhat better over time.
The other main benefit of a watchlist is that you begin to have an appreciation for the daily swings in price. I am not endorsing very active trading (although not disparaging it either) - but knowing that a stock you are strongly interested in is at a low point for the year, with no appreciable bad news or other information, may give you the slight extra nudge to become a shareholder. Entry price does matter - even in the long term, buying a stock at $9 instead of $10.50 will mean several extra percentage points of gain, or allow you to buy more shares than you could otherwise have done. And over the course of months, a swing of a couple dollars in price WILL happen.
I desperately need to update my blog watchlist: JAV is being bought out at $2.19 (a nice gain from my rec about 16 months ago at $1-ish), SGMO probably won't see sub $5 again, and Dendreon almost certainly will never be available at my latest upgrade of under $30.
My additions will include MannKind, Oncothyreon, Paramount Gold, Lexicon, and Opexa. I hope to talk of some of these soon in future posts. MannKind, Oncothyreon, and Paramount are probably the most timely buys; Arena and Elan would be next.
On a final note: I sold some small amounts of Dendreon over the last couple days but intend on holding the majority for the absolutely long haul. The guy who sold Microsoft for 3 or 4 times his stake looked really smart in the short term, but I believe this puppy has legs. :-)
Regards,
Trond
This is simply a list of companies that you are interested in. Most brokerages allow you to maintain a list, or Yahoo Finance! does quite nicely. If you get into the habit of checking in every day, you'll see a few benefits.
For one, you will hear news about your stocks very quickly. Of course, most people don't live and breathe the market, and conventional wisdom has it that one should not do this as it leads to that most evil practice of all - day trading. Ha!
Of course, conventional wisdom also counsels one to place your long term dollars in mutual funds and let the experts do their thing. As you are reading this, gentle reader, I assume you probably had an internal "Ha!" go off yourself.
It's usually not necessary to know news of a stock that is important to you immediately; very few things will be life and death to a corporation. Biotech may be the exception - trial news can kill or revive those very quickly, of course. But being aware of something at least gives you the power of choice. Here's an example: Oncothyreon (ONTY) received the unwelcome news a couple months ago that Stimuvax trials were being halted on safety concerns. It dropped immediately, of course, but kept dropping some more over the next few days. If this news spooked you, you at least had the chance the next day to sell at a higher price than the succeeding days would have allowed you.
Immersing yourself in the news also mean you are more in tune with your choices. You see earnings announcements, insider buys or sells, product information and the like; and hopefully you begin to understand the company somewhat better over time.
The other main benefit of a watchlist is that you begin to have an appreciation for the daily swings in price. I am not endorsing very active trading (although not disparaging it either) - but knowing that a stock you are strongly interested in is at a low point for the year, with no appreciable bad news or other information, may give you the slight extra nudge to become a shareholder. Entry price does matter - even in the long term, buying a stock at $9 instead of $10.50 will mean several extra percentage points of gain, or allow you to buy more shares than you could otherwise have done. And over the course of months, a swing of a couple dollars in price WILL happen.
I desperately need to update my blog watchlist: JAV is being bought out at $2.19 (a nice gain from my rec about 16 months ago at $1-ish), SGMO probably won't see sub $5 again, and Dendreon almost certainly will never be available at my latest upgrade of under $30.
My additions will include MannKind, Oncothyreon, Paramount Gold, Lexicon, and Opexa. I hope to talk of some of these soon in future posts. MannKind, Oncothyreon, and Paramount are probably the most timely buys; Arena and Elan would be next.
On a final note: I sold some small amounts of Dendreon over the last couple days but intend on holding the majority for the absolutely long haul. The guy who sold Microsoft for 3 or 4 times his stake looked really smart in the short term, but I believe this puppy has legs. :-)
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Port 24 update and real-world trades
Well I did not get a chance to post yesterday but I made some changes in the Port.
I sold the last 400 BCRX, bought 2000 PGNX and 1500 ALTH, and sold 10 MELA calls (Nov $10s, for $0.40).
BioCryst is close to either getting an Emergency Use Approval or not. I would miss the price spike, but I also will miss the cratering if it does not get it. This Port is not for extreme trading -- I will definitely focus on biotechs (simply because that is what I follow for the most part) but the covered call strategy works perfectly by buying into biotechs, selling calls against the premium generated by trial or approval hype, and then selling BEFORE the actual date.
In my real-world IRA, I have been buying NBIX ($2.74), PZG ($1.27) and MNKD ($5.13). All of these are, in my estimation, good for a double or more in the next 12 months.
The Port stands as follows:
2000 AOB
2000 NBIX
1600 ELN
400 DNDN
4900 ARNA
2500 SGMO
2000 MELA (10)
2000 PGNX
200 AMAG
1500 ALTH
Cash: $5,231.55
Regards,
Trond
I sold the last 400 BCRX, bought 2000 PGNX and 1500 ALTH, and sold 10 MELA calls (Nov $10s, for $0.40).
BioCryst is close to either getting an Emergency Use Approval or not. I would miss the price spike, but I also will miss the cratering if it does not get it. This Port is not for extreme trading -- I will definitely focus on biotechs (simply because that is what I follow for the most part) but the covered call strategy works perfectly by buying into biotechs, selling calls against the premium generated by trial or approval hype, and then selling BEFORE the actual date.
In my real-world IRA, I have been buying NBIX ($2.74), PZG ($1.27) and MNKD ($5.13). All of these are, in my estimation, good for a double or more in the next 12 months.
The Port stands as follows:
2000 AOB
2000 NBIX
1600 ELN
400 DNDN
4900 ARNA
2500 SGMO
2000 MELA (10)
2000 PGNX
200 AMAG
1500 ALTH
Cash: $5,231.55
Regards,
Trond
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Port 24 update
Options expiration was yesterday and I was only exercised on 600 Dendreon shares. Elan, Sangamo, American Oriental, Arena, and Electro-Optical calls all expired with the premium as 100% profit.
Dendreon was a little disappointing, as I hate to see any shares of this company go, even in a ficticious portfolio. I had sold the $35s at $0.84, and then bought them back at a profit ($0.20), and then sold the $28s. It closed at $29.51 and so they were called away from me; I now have only 400 shares left (just under 10% of the Port).
I have to say I am a little surprised at Dendreon's strength. The addition of two new Board members (one, Ian Clark, the upcoming CEO of Genentech North America) certainly fueled speculation about the Rest-Of-World partner for Provenge being Genentech.
For me, the only real news of interest coming up is the amended BLA scheduled for mid-November. And the aBLA itself really is not newsworthy as they announced it a month ago. But - the sensitivity analysis should be included and hopefully made public. This sensitivity analysis is important to me because it will show the continued strength of Provenge over time. In April, the final results of the IMPACT trial showed a statistically significant reduction of risk of death of 22.5% over the placebo group. This 8+ month (results were released in April but the results were based off data cut off in January) should show an improving hazard ratio over and above the 22.5% aleready seen. I would like to see 26%+.
Elan will be having their quarterly earnings call on 10/21, but will be upstaged slightly on the 20th when Biogen releases Tysabri numbers for Q3. I expect to see continuing, although not blowout, growth in the patient count. However, I also expect Elan to announce they will swing to profitability in either Q4 or Q1 2010. We should see real growth in revenue from the EDT branch, and unfortunately we probably will not hear any real news of the Alzheimers platform on this call.
In my real money IRA, I have been buying GenVec (GNVC) and MannKind (MKND) for the first time and more Elan (ELN) and Sangamo (SGMO). I am very excited for GNVC but the move started earlier than I thought it would: I started buying at $0.76 per share and it already touched $1 this last week.
I'll be adding a couple watchlist stocks, mentioning now only that Allos (ALTH), AMAG Pharma (AMAG), and MannKind (MKND) should deliver 50-100% returns in the next 12-24 months.
Regards,
Trond
Dendreon was a little disappointing, as I hate to see any shares of this company go, even in a ficticious portfolio. I had sold the $35s at $0.84, and then bought them back at a profit ($0.20), and then sold the $28s. It closed at $29.51 and so they were called away from me; I now have only 400 shares left (just under 10% of the Port).
I have to say I am a little surprised at Dendreon's strength. The addition of two new Board members (one, Ian Clark, the upcoming CEO of Genentech North America) certainly fueled speculation about the Rest-Of-World partner for Provenge being Genentech.
For me, the only real news of interest coming up is the amended BLA scheduled for mid-November. And the aBLA itself really is not newsworthy as they announced it a month ago. But - the sensitivity analysis should be included and hopefully made public. This sensitivity analysis is important to me because it will show the continued strength of Provenge over time. In April, the final results of the IMPACT trial showed a statistically significant reduction of risk of death of 22.5% over the placebo group. This 8+ month (results were released in April but the results were based off data cut off in January) should show an improving hazard ratio over and above the 22.5% aleready seen. I would like to see 26%+.
Elan will be having their quarterly earnings call on 10/21, but will be upstaged slightly on the 20th when Biogen releases Tysabri numbers for Q3. I expect to see continuing, although not blowout, growth in the patient count. However, I also expect Elan to announce they will swing to profitability in either Q4 or Q1 2010. We should see real growth in revenue from the EDT branch, and unfortunately we probably will not hear any real news of the Alzheimers platform on this call.
In my real money IRA, I have been buying GenVec (GNVC) and MannKind (MKND) for the first time and more Elan (ELN) and Sangamo (SGMO). I am very excited for GNVC but the move started earlier than I thought it would: I started buying at $0.76 per share and it already touched $1 this last week.
I'll be adding a couple watchlist stocks, mentioning now only that Allos (ALTH), AMAG Pharma (AMAG), and MannKind (MKND) should deliver 50-100% returns in the next 12-24 months.
Regards,
Trond
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
