The composition of the Port has changed dramatically from just a couple weeks ago.
We bid adieu to Seattle Genetics (SGEN) last Friday, as I had sold $17.50 calls and it closed at $19.50. Since I bought it 3 1/2 months ago at $15, and sold $1.25 worth of premium I can't complain too much with the 21% total return.
This morning I took advantage of the cash on hand, buying an old friend and a special situation.
The Port now owns Dendreon (DNDN) again, at $38.16. I did, however, sell July $40 calls, expecting a lift from the CMS coverage and the upcoming Seal Beach plant approval.
I also bought a second load of Pharmathene (PIP) (6,000 shares at $2.42) and sold 60 July calls at $2.50. Those calls, however, had a premium of $0.30!! That is a 12% premium for one month... and too much for me to resist in the Port.
Notably, I also bought some PIP for myself in my real money account this morning. I did not sell calls against these.
I'm down to $4,400 cash in the Port, so until I either sell more calls or liquidate some stock, I'll be holding the following:
Shares .. Ticker.. (calls sold)
1500 ARQL (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2600 CLDX (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
300 DNDN (3)
1100 EXEL (0)
2000 MITI (0)
2000 NBIX (20)
7000 NNVC (0)
2500 PIP (0)
6000 PIP (60)
1600 SGMO (0)
Regards,
Trond
Showing posts with label Seattle Genetics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Seattle Genetics. Show all posts
Monday, June 20, 2011
Sunday, May 22, 2011
May options expiration
There were certainly some surprises this last month in the Port24. I had sold covered calls against CLDX, ONTY, NBIX, DCTH, and MITI.
All expired harmlessly except for ONTY - it has been rising sharply and were exercised a good 25% above my $4 strike. It hurts to lose the extra amount I might have made, except for two things:
1) would I have actually sold at this price, or would I have sold earlier, or waited and had it go down again?
2) I bought these about a year ago with an average price of $3.46, and sold $0.70 cents of premium along the way... so my net return here has been around 35%.
CLDX just did a secondary offering which knocked it down from exercisable range to the present price. I expect it to be nudging $4 again within a couple months.
NBIX has dropped recently but with Phase 3 trials starting late summer, it should be climbing nicely over the next few months.
Celsion (CLSN) enrollment in the HEAT trial continues to be something I look forward to, over the next two months. They should have hit the 190th PFS event easily by this time and so we'll get to know the results of an interim calculation by the end of Q3 at the latest.
The Port has an annualized return of 17.1% with just over three years. That compares nicely to the S&P being flat over the same period and the Nasdaq gain of 7%.
With ONTY being exercised, I have $28,913.35 in cash and the following holdings:
Shares (calls sold)
2600 CLDX (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2000 NBIX (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
1600 SGMO (0)
All expired harmlessly except for ONTY - it has been rising sharply and were exercised a good 25% above my $4 strike. It hurts to lose the extra amount I might have made, except for two things:
1) would I have actually sold at this price, or would I have sold earlier, or waited and had it go down again?
2) I bought these about a year ago with an average price of $3.46, and sold $0.70 cents of premium along the way... so my net return here has been around 35%.
CLDX just did a secondary offering which knocked it down from exercisable range to the present price. I expect it to be nudging $4 again within a couple months.
NBIX has dropped recently but with Phase 3 trials starting late summer, it should be climbing nicely over the next few months.
Celsion (CLSN) enrollment in the HEAT trial continues to be something I look forward to, over the next two months. They should have hit the 190th PFS event easily by this time and so we'll get to know the results of an interim calculation by the end of Q3 at the latest.
The Port has an annualized return of 17.1% with just over three years. That compares nicely to the S&P being flat over the same period and the Nasdaq gain of 7%.
With ONTY being exercised, I have $28,913.35 in cash and the following holdings:
Shares (calls sold)
2600 CLDX (0)
1200 BTX (0)
2000 NBIX (0)
7000 NNVC (0)
1600 DCTH (0)
3600 PZG (0)
9000 CLSN (0)
2000 MITI (0)
800 SGEN (8)
1600 SGMO (0)
Thursday, April 7, 2011
More covered calls & Port24 update
Seeing as how option expiration is next week, I decided to get some premium this morning. DNDN Apr $40s for $0.38, DCTH May $9s for $0.50, and SGEN Jun $17.50 for $0.85. Nanoviricides (NNVC) is having a good week, up the $1.50s on more FluCide news. I actually sold a little in my real money portfolios, as I try to trade this one more actively than I sometimes do (this is in an IRA so I don't have to worry about taxes). If you have a 2 to 5 year holding time, this is still not a bad time to buy but I suspect it will be 10 to 20 cents lower in a month or two. The Port24 is back over 20% annualized returns... Dendreon's return to the high $30s as well as Nanoviricide's pop contributed. Celsion has been lagging but I expect within three months it will be the star of the show. I am loaded in CLSN in my real money accounts as well. Cash = $3,390.35 2600 CLDX (26) 400 DNDN (4) 2000 NBIX (20) 7000 NNVC (0) 7000 ONTY (70) 1600 DCTH (16) 3600 PZG (0) 9000 CLSN (0) 2000 MITI (0) 800 SGEN (8) Regards, Trond
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Portfolio strategies and March options expiration
Investing for a blog is slightly different than investing in your own real money portfolio. I try to keep things as true as possible to what actually happens -- commissions, fees, and whatever the bid/ask happens to be.
One difference is the bid/ask - the amount you can sell or buy a stock or option for. Let's look at Dendreon - on a day where the price is $32.79, that might entail a bid/ask of $32.79/32.80. You can sell it for 32.79 but have to buy it at 32.80. In a real world portfolio, you can enter a limit buy at $32.75 - if during the day the ask price falls to $32.75, the order fills and you've bought at a better price. You might not, however, get filled at all! I almost always enter limit orders so as to "game" a few cents on my entry and exit price. I do not have such a luxury in the Port24, since I wouldn't know if I ever would have gotten filled or not! And the volume comes into play also... on microcaps such as Celsion that may only trade 50,000 shares a day, a 4,000 buy can drive the ask price up by a few cents.
A couple cents here or there, even on a thousand shares, really is not a big deal - $10 or $20. Options, however, present a wholly different challenge. The bid/ask spread tends to be wider on low price or low volume stocks, and can be as large as 30 to 40 cents difference. A limit order here is MUCH more necessary and "gaming" the order is important. If the bid/ask is $0.25/0.45, a sell entered for $0.35 -- maybe even $0.40 -- might well be filled. You can easily gain an extra $20, 30, or 40 on a trade simply by keeping that in mind. On a $5,000 buy in for the stock, where you are expecting a 2% return on your covered call, an extra $25 raises your return percentage-wise by another half percent. Half a percent over 12 months is an extra 6% a year! Always enter limit orders on options!!
Another difference in the way a real vs. fake portfolio can be managed is the psychological factor. I have staked myself to a 24% return in the Port24 (something I am far short of at the moment) and being long Celsion for so long (heck, even Dendreon over the last year!) has hurt my performance when measured over an individual month or series of months. I refuse to sell calls for the most part because there is the chance for a really good movement in the share price coming up and I want to capture that. However, I have opportunity cost in the meantime of the covered call premiums foregone. And monthly, I have to report "underperformance" of my 2% a month return. There is always the temptation to do something "wrong" to make the monthly numbers look better! (This, by the way, is very much why I mistrust a lot of companies' quarterly earnings - there are many things they can do to fiddle around with a particular quarter's earnings... a one-time charge here, etc.) All I can do is remember why I am in a particular stock and stay true to it. In the long run, assuming I'm right on Celsion, a 100%+ return in a year looks better than 2% in each of 12 months.
For March's opex in the Port24, both Delcath and Seattle Genetics expired without being called. Delcath, of course, went horribly wrong a few weeks ago with the FDA not even accepting the filing of the NDA. I'm holding here, as European approval is also in the works and should cause a re-runup towards the end of the spring. SGEN could well bounce around a buck or two up or down; I will simply wait for a small bounce up and sell calls again.
One extra note about the Port24 - several weeks ago I announced the intention to "move" the assets to Zecco from Scottrade. Immediately afterwards, Zecco announced a pricing change, adding a few dimes to their stock and option commissions. While it is still cheaper than Scottrade and for a new money account I would certainly recommend Zecco, for this situation where I'd have to pay "transfer" charges I am just going to keep basng my buys and sells for now off Scottrade's commission costs. Having said that, please don't let such costs deter you from doing transfers in real money accounts - many brokerages will compensate you for the transfer charges as an inducement for your business!
Real money wise, I am coming close to being an idiot with Celsion. I have been buying all the way down from the low $3s through the $2.30s. A large part of me wishes I'd only now heard of it and had bought the entire stake here! We should finally see some movement in the next 1-8 weeks... culminating in a really nice runup by June awaiting full enrollment of the HEAT trial, and the interim calculation announcement. While I don't truly expect a successful interim and trial stop, the increased eyeballs and realization of the microscopic float should cause a share price move of several dollars.
Paramount Gold & Silver should be releasing one of their resource reports within weeks. Not knowing exactly what regions will be included makes it hard to predict share price movement, but suffice it to say over the next year I expect a double or more. That makes it worth hlding on, or adding here.
Regards,
Trond
One difference is the bid/ask - the amount you can sell or buy a stock or option for. Let's look at Dendreon - on a day where the price is $32.79, that might entail a bid/ask of $32.79/32.80. You can sell it for 32.79 but have to buy it at 32.80. In a real world portfolio, you can enter a limit buy at $32.75 - if during the day the ask price falls to $32.75, the order fills and you've bought at a better price. You might not, however, get filled at all! I almost always enter limit orders so as to "game" a few cents on my entry and exit price. I do not have such a luxury in the Port24, since I wouldn't know if I ever would have gotten filled or not! And the volume comes into play also... on microcaps such as Celsion that may only trade 50,000 shares a day, a 4,000 buy can drive the ask price up by a few cents.
A couple cents here or there, even on a thousand shares, really is not a big deal - $10 or $20. Options, however, present a wholly different challenge. The bid/ask spread tends to be wider on low price or low volume stocks, and can be as large as 30 to 40 cents difference. A limit order here is MUCH more necessary and "gaming" the order is important. If the bid/ask is $0.25/0.45, a sell entered for $0.35 -- maybe even $0.40 -- might well be filled. You can easily gain an extra $20, 30, or 40 on a trade simply by keeping that in mind. On a $5,000 buy in for the stock, where you are expecting a 2% return on your covered call, an extra $25 raises your return percentage-wise by another half percent. Half a percent over 12 months is an extra 6% a year! Always enter limit orders on options!!
Another difference in the way a real vs. fake portfolio can be managed is the psychological factor. I have staked myself to a 24% return in the Port24 (something I am far short of at the moment) and being long Celsion for so long (heck, even Dendreon over the last year!) has hurt my performance when measured over an individual month or series of months. I refuse to sell calls for the most part because there is the chance for a really good movement in the share price coming up and I want to capture that. However, I have opportunity cost in the meantime of the covered call premiums foregone. And monthly, I have to report "underperformance" of my 2% a month return. There is always the temptation to do something "wrong" to make the monthly numbers look better! (This, by the way, is very much why I mistrust a lot of companies' quarterly earnings - there are many things they can do to fiddle around with a particular quarter's earnings... a one-time charge here, etc.) All I can do is remember why I am in a particular stock and stay true to it. In the long run, assuming I'm right on Celsion, a 100%+ return in a year looks better than 2% in each of 12 months.
For March's opex in the Port24, both Delcath and Seattle Genetics expired without being called. Delcath, of course, went horribly wrong a few weeks ago with the FDA not even accepting the filing of the NDA. I'm holding here, as European approval is also in the works and should cause a re-runup towards the end of the spring. SGEN could well bounce around a buck or two up or down; I will simply wait for a small bounce up and sell calls again.
One extra note about the Port24 - several weeks ago I announced the intention to "move" the assets to Zecco from Scottrade. Immediately afterwards, Zecco announced a pricing change, adding a few dimes to their stock and option commissions. While it is still cheaper than Scottrade and for a new money account I would certainly recommend Zecco, for this situation where I'd have to pay "transfer" charges I am just going to keep basng my buys and sells for now off Scottrade's commission costs. Having said that, please don't let such costs deter you from doing transfers in real money accounts - many brokerages will compensate you for the transfer charges as an inducement for your business!
Real money wise, I am coming close to being an idiot with Celsion. I have been buying all the way down from the low $3s through the $2.30s. A large part of me wishes I'd only now heard of it and had bought the entire stake here! We should finally see some movement in the next 1-8 weeks... culminating in a really nice runup by June awaiting full enrollment of the HEAT trial, and the interim calculation announcement. While I don't truly expect a successful interim and trial stop, the increased eyeballs and realization of the microscopic float should cause a share price move of several dollars.
Paramount Gold & Silver should be releasing one of their resource reports within weeks. Not knowing exactly what regions will be included makes it hard to predict share price movement, but suffice it to say over the next year I expect a double or more. That makes it worth hlding on, or adding here.
Regards,
Trond
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Port24 update - SGEN
Cash was freed up by selling CLDA. I am allergic to holding on to cash and have bought 800 Seattle Genetics (SGEN) at $15. I turned around and immediately sold 8 Mar11 $15 calls for $0.40 each. 2.5% return in just over 2 weeks, assuming we hug $15 for awhile.
Regards,
Trond
Regards,
Trond
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