Trond's World returns!

Hi there all,

Long time no post – I am swamped at work and a little weary of the overall market slump. When the overall market is against you and you are a perma-bull, then you do three things.

First, double check your stocks to ensure nothing has changed. If there are still the compelling reasons to own them as when you bought them in the first place, then you’re okay.
Now, IF you own them in a taxable account and you truly feel it may be quite some time before they come around, then you may want to sell some shares, take the tax loss, and wait 31 days to repurchase them. (31 days will maneuver you around the IRS “wash sale” rules)

Second, simply be patient. In my experience, it is nearly exactly when everyone gives up, that the market rebounds. You only have money in the stock market that is long term anyways, right? *grin*

Finally, when something you have your eyes on has dropped and dropped, and you still feel it is compelling enough, BUY. You can wait forever, trying to get the exact bottom and then when things do turn around, you put off buying because you perversely WANT it to go down again so you can buy near the low point.
Warren Buffett has famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Fear runs rampant right now – so it may be time to cast around for bargains.

Note: I would still stay away from real estate, financials, and insurance stocks right now – I think there is still some pain left to come.

I’m glad the SEC has finally (sort of) cracked down on naked short selling today, but there is still some business to take care of. I’d like to see the uptick rule replaced – heck – I’d like to see ALL short selling disallowed. It creates artificial liquidity (= supply) which by nature dampens stock prices. But it’s a step in the right direction.

Finally, it has been too long since I’ve done anything with the Port24. Everything is depressed enough that I dislike selling calls – to get any premium, I risk getting called away at a price far below what I paid. I will hold what I have for a recovery, and actually engaged in my #3 point above – I bought some more today!

600 Elan at $10.32, 1500 Sangamo at $6.36, and 3000 ArQule at $2.91.
My cash is around $3470 and my portfolio is down a whopping 30% at this point.

I see a modest rebound for Elan, and shortly – there is an MS convention starting today and we should see some news on the recent PML cases from Europe. From everything I’ve heard and read, patients are NOT running away from Tysabri. Oct/Nov news of patient counts will probably come as a surprise to most analysts.

Regards,
Trond