Thursday, May 14, 2009

Port 24 update

Well, it has been exactly one year since I started the Portfolio 24.

It is a model portfolio starting with $100,000.00. I had expectations of making 2% a month, utilizing a covered call strategy. For the year, I fell well short of that, with the Port being worth $89,560 with today's prices. That is an actual 10.5% loss, or 34.5% below my desired return.

While I could use the overall miserable performace of the market (for example, the Nasdaq was down 32 percent and the S&P500 was negative 35% for that one-year period) as an excuse, I prefer to view this as an absolute return portfolio, not a relative. In other words, I do not want to simply beat the market returns, I want to ALSO always make money.

Three things hampered me.

1) Elan absolutely killed me; I bought 800 shares right before the disastrous duo of the ICAD presentation/PML cases. That is a $21,000 mistake at this moment, which would put me at a 10% gain on the year if I had not done that one purchase.

2) I neglected the Portfolio all fall and through the spring. I would have made "some" option premium if I'd been paying attention and selling some out-of-the-money calls. In no way would I have clawed back to even, but I probably left a minimum of $4,000 on the table.

3) I went away from the original strategy somewhat by stocking up on Elan and Dendreon. It worked quite well in Dendreon's case and not so well in Elan's. And it wasn't even the fact I was adding those two names in bulk; I refused to sell calls against them because I didn't want to be called away from perceived large gains.

I bought 1400 shares of BioCryst Pharma today at $2.47, and sold 10 June $2.50 calls for $0.50 -- a nice 20% premium for one month! I also sold 20 $22.50 May calls against Dendreon -- they expire tomorrow and with the stock at $20.90 I think it free money. Granted, the contracts were only $8 each but it came to $130 after commissions.

So right now, the Port stands at $89,566, with the following holdings:

3000 ARQL, 2000 NBIX, 1600 ELN, 2000 DNDN, 2000 ARNA, 2500 SGMO, and 1400 BCRX; $614 in cash. I have 20 Dendreon May calls sold and 10 BioCryst June calls sold. Next week after options expiration I will be more active!

Regards,
Trond

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