Celsion upgrade and expectations

JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised their target price on Celsion on Thursday, to $8.50.

http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2011/07/29/jpmorgan-chase-co-jpm-analysts-raise-price-target-on-celsion-co-clsn-to-8-50/

While typically I would hesitate to even point this out, since Needham is the only analyst thus far to cover the company, I view the addition of JPM to the coverage "stable" as a good thing. With enrollment in the HEAT trial expected to be completed at 600 either this coming week or next, and the 190th Progression Free Survival (PFS) event expected in a similar timeframe, the more eyeballs the better.

They raised another $18M in cash two weeks ago, appearing flush with cash for the first time in years, while maintaining an outstanding share count somewhere around 23M. While they typically have their Q2 earnings call in the first week or so of August, it would not surprise me in the least to see them await these two events before hosting that call - I'm sure the management has no desire to hear all the questions about the trial that they would simply need to be answering within another week!

I still expect a decent runup into August and September; with the price at a post-offering price of $3.83 I'd like to see it hit between $5 and $7 in the next 2-8 weeks. The interim calculation results, still explicitly guided for by the end of September, are expected to take 6-8 weeks after the 600 & 190 events. I'd hazard that the later of those two events will happen by August 12.

I know several readers have advised me they have purchased Celsion shares or options; I still think shares are "safer" but acknowledge the leverage options allow. For me, as a new trade and looking at the October or January calls, I would pay the little extra premium the January strikes demand, for the security of the extra three months.

I hold a pretty large position of CLSN and will be lightening the load in Aug and Sep prior to the interim results.

Regards,
Trond