Thursday, November 5, 2009

Watchlist

I desperately need to update my watchlist - I hope to have some time this weekend to do so.

I am very bullish on several stocks at this point - I'd have looked like a genius if I'd pointed out Sangamo yesterday ($6.30, up 16% today...) but there are a number of others too. SGMO, by the way, IS a watchlist stock and I will have an updated "buy under" price this weekend. I think it may give some back tomorrow, so I wouldn't just grab some today.

Allos (ALTH, $5.88 today) is one stock that I expect to be at or over $10 in the next 6 months or so. They have an approved drug, aggressive pricing, and a low number of shares outstanding (relatively). The worst case would be a buyout at a 10-20% premium.

Neurocrine (NBIX, $2.16 today) is another that SHOULD have news in the next 6 months that will propel it to at least a double and perhaps more. Several trials will yield news and a partnership awaits. I unfortunately have thought this for a few months now and have been buying steadily all the way down. Time will tell but this is rapidly becoming one of my larger stakes, just from the risk/reward.

GenVec (GNVC, $0.93 today) is the final one I will toss out - again, interim trial data expected within 6 months and the data should be really nice. Not good enough to file with the FDA immediately, but good enough to attract partners and/or suitors.

All of these (SGMO, ALTH, NBIX, and GNVC) should be 50% or higher in the next 6 months. I will make a note to revisit this post in May 2010 - I invite you to do some research on these companies and ask any questions you wish.

Regards,
Trond

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Hey Trond,

I was curious as to what valuation method(s) you are using to get your intrinsic values for these biotech stocks on your watchlist.