Dendreon target

Pete asked about a price target for Dendreon (DNDN).

I hate the concept of targets, because people will always have different time frames and objectives.
If Dendreon hits $32.17 intraday, but closes at $31.81, and I have a $32 target, is that a "hit"? If it does that tomorrow but my target is a end-of-year 2009 $33 and it never quite breaks $33, is that a miss?

Not picking on you, Pete - just need to know where you are coming from in terms of why you want a price target. Now let's say you bought a mess of shares a couple days ago when the stock price went up 15% and you want a short term trade that gets you out with some chance of profit and safely, protecting your principal. THAT is a legitimate reason, and answerable (although of course, only in my opinion).

So here we go!
First, realize there have been a bunch of biotech conferences recently, and Dendreon has scheduled an Analyst Day in NY on 9/24. So word is getting out about Provenge, and there is always the chance of a blockbuster partnership agreement, or further trial info. So it's not surprising it's been "frothy" lately.
The company has basically promised that they will be reviewing commercialization plans at the presentation. I hope they will give more color on pricing and production quantity per quarter. Armd with more information, the expectation is that the analysts will be blown away with the amount of revenue Dendreon may make even as quickly as next summer, and raise their price targets -- which may make more funds and institutions buy in.

I actually expected us to stay under $25 through this Friday (option expiration) and would not be surprised at all to see us dip down there again. But, we should stay between $24 and $28 up through the Analyst Day presentation.

IF the company announces by 10/1 that they have submitted the amended BLA to the FDA for Provenge, then I would think we'll stay at $25 as a floor, and we make hit the $30s through the fall.

But -- allow me to stop speculating on a monthly basis: by June 30, 2010 Provenge will be approved and we should have a Rest-of-World partnership agreement. Those two events should lift us safely out of the $30s - I expect in one year (9/16/2010) the share price will be around $45-50 - nearly a double from here. Note there could easily be spikes, bringing us much higher than that for a day or two.

I would hold on to any shares you have - if they are earmarked longer-term. If you bought some purely to make some short term profit - I'd lock in gains now. Analyst expectations are always hard to read -- you may leave $2 on the table but we could easily sink $2 for the next couple months also.

Regards,
Trond